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212 Pledged Delegates and It's Over
When Senator Obama has a majority of all possible pledged delegates, he's won. The super-delegates who don't want to call the election themselves will get on board, and it'll be over.
So it's worth noting that he only needs 212 to get to a pledged majority. Senator Clinton needs 378.
Suppose she takes 55% of the delegates in Pennsylvania, and then averages that margin in the next six races: Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. She still loses the race.
A 45% average in those races will give him those 212 when we wake up on May 21st, it will be clear that he's won.
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Comments (9)
So you're saying that (perhaps) we only have one more month of this travesty until the Clintons bag their shit and go home? Amen to that...
April 20, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
playing with the calculator...
all she has to do:
PA + 20 pts
guam + 20 pts
IN + 20 pts
NC + 10 pts
WV + 80 pts
KY + 80 pts
OR + 20 pts
PR + 20 pts
MT + 20 pts
SD + 20 pts
leading to a tie!
you might say shutting out obama in WV and KY is impossible, but i say remember MI! nothing is impossible.
April 20, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see now why they keep referring to this as a "very tight race"!
April 20, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
2687 pledged delegates + 795 superdelegates = 3482 total delegates
50% of 3482 = 0.5 * 3482 = 1741
50% + 1 = 1742
This is the real magic number. Once he hits 1742 a tie is impossible. He currently has 1648. That's a gap of 94 delegates, either pledged or super. Every delegate earned beyond this is a nail in the coffin.
It's two minutes to midnight for HRC.
April 20, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where are you getting your 2687 figure from? According to Wikipedia, there are 3,253 pledged delegates. I'm not saying it's infallible, but without a better source…
April 20, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
D'oh!
You are absolutely correct. I got the number from RCP, but looking at their numbers again it's clear that this is is actually the total delegates allocated thus far.
So, let's try this again with Wikipedia's numbers:
794 + 3253 = 4047
4047 / 2 = 2023.5 ~ 2024 (duh)
So the magic number set by the DNC is literally a bare majority.
Yeah, that makes a lot more sense. Apologies for the shoddy figures. Thanks for correcting me, Ben.
1627 would be necessary for a majority of the pledged delegates. Wikipedia has him with 1415.5 right now. I'm not sure what this "half delegate" represents, but it means that the 212 figure in the original post is entirely accurate.
Looking back at the RCP data again I can get their 2687 by adding up the figures they have for Obama and Clinton in pledged delegates and then adding in the pledged delegates allocated to Edwards as well. What threw me off was that they had this figure next to the total superdelegates and not a figure for the total superdelegates presently endorsing. Hopefully this explains my error, as it was not intended to deceive anyone.
Again, thanks for pointing out my mistake and I apologize for the needlessly erroneous post. You're always good for spotting that stuff, Mr. Hocking.
April 20, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
No worries. The half delegate comes from Democrats Abroad, although I agree it's kinda screwy.
April 20, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben,
Your numbers allow me to correct my original post. A week ago, I used 3,256 as the pledged number in a spreadsheet, and I can't remember why. Your 3,253 matches http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html.
and I've corrected my math.
To win pledged, either candidate needs a total of 1,627. As of yesterday morning's First Read, MSNBC had Obama at 1,417, so he needs 210--two less than I originally thought.
Thank you for prodding me to improve!
DF,
I agree with Ben that something has to have slipped in your numbers. One simple way to see that is to remember that candidates need 2024 or 2025 to get the nomination. Depending on the day and site, the number shifts a little as the number of super-delegates changes. So there must be 4,047 to 4,049 delegates total.
April 20, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I totally screwed the pooch on that one. It's funny, no matter how much I learn about math I always screw the pooch on the little stuff like transposing figures and sign errors. I guess "little stuff" might not be quite the right term though, since these errors can absolutely derail any hope of an accurate answer.
April 20, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
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