Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Write it Down: Obama on 2008 Presidential Ticket
It seems highly likely that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America. That said, I think people under estimate the possibility of that not happening.
Obama leads in pledged delegates and even if Michigan and Florida are do-overs, that is not likely to change. It will be hard for Clinton to even get that number down to 50. That said, I think she has a very slim, but real, path to the nomination.
1. She has to make the case Obama is not ready to be President (see 3 AM ad).
2. She has to get the pledged delegate number under 100 and probably under 50.
3. She has to have more than one national poll showing her up over 10 points ahead of Obama among democrats for the nomination.
4. She has to win Pennsylvania by at least 10 points.
5. She has to probably win almost all of the contests after Pennsylvania.
6. She needs to win Michigan and Florida do-overs, if they happen.
If all of those things happen, which is not impossible to imagine, I think it is possible that if she promised Obama the VP spot that she could convince the super delegates to give her the nomination. Her only path to the nomination would have to include Obama as VP. Without it, she would have no path and if she found a way without the pledge delegate lead and without Obama on the ticket, the party would either split or Obama people would just stay home in November to punish her.
The opposite is not true for Clinton. The only way she ends up on the ticket as a VP is if it is the only way for Obama to save himself from her (buying her out of the race).
Both of the Clinton's know that their only real path to the nomination and White House now includes Obama as VP. The only other path for her is a Gary Hart like scandal and her husband is more likely to deliver that than Obama.
As an Obama supporter, I still find it hard to believe that anyone other than the leader of the pledged delegates could be the nominee, but I also think that when people talk about the dream ticket, they always see Hillary as being on top.
Comments (2)
If this is true, and I think it's a smart analysis, she really needs to stop throwing Obama under the bus and giving props to John McCain.
March 6, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
very true indeed and it makes darn good sense. we lockk up the dems having the presidency for almost 16 years. 8 of clinton and then 8 of obama. he has 8 years to prime where no one can question his experience and who could argue against the tru ticket of change. a woman and an black man. that's what i call REAL CHANGE.
March 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment