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Two big developments: Bill Richardson and the Florida vote
Two big things out today. First, the New York Times reported the following regarding Bill Richardon:
Mr. Richardson, saying that it was vital to Democrats’ hopes in the general election in November to mount a positive, unifying campaign, said on the CBS News program “Face the Nation” that “whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee.”
For that to be Mrs. Clinton, she would have to significantly exceed the results predicted by polls.
That seems to be as close to supporting Obama as he can get right now since I don't hear anyone, even from the Hilalry camp, who believes she'll be much closer or ahead after Tuesday. It seems like a kind of public warning on the reason he's likely to support Obama.
The second big news comes out of Florida:
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Florida Governor Charlie Crist said he'd support a repeat of the Democratic presidential primary so the state's delegates can be counted at the party's national convention.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said he's open to the possibility. Primary elections are paid for by a state's taxpayers, so the offer from Crist, a Republican, is ``very helpful'' because money is an issue, Dean said.
``We're very willing to listen to the people of Florida,'' Dean said on CNN's ``Late Edition'' program today.
While the Richardson news is bad for Hillary, this could give her a new firewall. Now it is interesting to note that Crist is a Republican and a talked about VP nominee for McCain. I'm wondering if this is a sign that the GOP wants to try to help Hillary - who's the only candidate who could benefit from a second primary. Could it be a sign that he's received lot's a public pressure? Or that he just thinks FL voters should have their say?
I still don't think that she's going to be able to make up the delegate ground unless she wins both TX and OH and then were to win big in FL and MI. Even then, with only two of them the delegates are going to be allocated so evenly that her comeback is a longshot.
I think the only way any of this matters if she wins both OH and TX next week. If she loses one, then I think dozens more superdelegates join Bill Richardson and endorse Obama within a week. Coupled with big Obama wins in Wyoming and Mississippi - it should be over in 10 days or less barring a big Hillary win Tuesday.
Comments (18)
Nice catch. If this is party tactic by Christ, I would say that it's more likely that he wants to prolong the the Democratic primary (and internal divisions) as opposed to helping Hillary win, as the first is a more likely consequence than the second. That said, is it really worth it to him to run a Dem primary just to prolong battle?
March 2, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crist is offering state funding for the Fla rematch. That's been an obstacle until now. It's Republican ploy to help Hillary, but if it brought the candidates back to Fla, it would help turn around the poll numbers that McCain now shows. I think Barack could take a Fla primary if they campaign here, and get a boost toward November.
March 2, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
assuming clinton drops out soon, does it make sense for obama to 'compete' in the remaining primaries to build toward november?
March 2, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been thinking about this and I decided on a resounding maybe. :)
I think when Obama and McCain would compete in a primary election or caucus ont the same day, then I think Obama should campaign there. Call it a preliminary GE against McCain. The up side is energizing the Democrats in the state; the down side is getting McCain experienced in how Obama campaigns.
Perhaps the schedule wouldn't be as strenuous, but I really, really like the idea of Obama making contact with supporters and voters in all 50 states.
March 2, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd bet on Obama either matching Hillary or even besting her in a Florida "rematch".
March 2, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right - I'm with the other posters. A Florida replay I would think would benefit Obama.
From what I gather, the Republicans hate Hillary so much they're willing to chance facing Obama rather than letting "Her Highness continue the dynasty" (their words, not mine).
Since they know that Hillary is trying to use Florida and Michigan as a bulwark for the nomination, robbing her of those victories is an effective way to weaken her case.
Either way, political chess aside, restoring the vote of the people in those two states can't be a bad thing. Lots of them have been trolling the political boards, very upset that they've had their vote silenced. From what I gather, they don't blame Obama for it, so much as see him complicit in the vote denial. It'd go a long way to getting their votes if they were able to redo their elections.
March 2, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama guy, I've got no problem with Florida getting a chance to vote again and have their delegates seated. I think there are a number of reasons Crist could be saying that FL would pay for a new primary, but I think the simplest answer is that it is the right thing to do.
I think of these two stories, Richardson is the biggest one. If Obama wins Texas (or Ohio) and Richardson endorses Obama then I think it will be a sign from an established party member that the superdelegates should act and end the race. It might also mean the Bill Richardson will be on the ticket. Pretty damn compelling ticket: Obama-Richardson '08!
March 2, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now, I hate to think nasty thoughts about my country, but racism still exists. Will America vote for an entirely non-white ticket? Personally, I think I could get behind Obama-Richardson and I've been pleasantly surprised by how well Obama has been able to do. I don't know.. there's just a very cynical part of my mind that, perhaps due to coming from a family that with roots in the racist south, wonders what the reaction would be.
March 3, 2008 3:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're definitely going to see the racists of America come out in full force if Obama is the nominee, but I don't think it'll be any worse if Richardson is on the ticket too.
I'm ready for America to be challenged on race - to bring out the best in us and the worst in us.
Beyond Richardson's race though, he has the credentials that would fit with what Obama needs. A governor with executive experience, long list of foreign policy credentials, and Governor in a swing state. He was also a recent candidate for President and with that has valuable time practicing his stump speech and building relationships with media, activists, and donors on a national level.
All that being said, I'm not lobbying for Richardson or feel strongly he should select him. It just makes sense that he'll be a top candidate.
March 3, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting there was a piece on NPR about the FBI monitoring Stormfront.org and other racists, neo-Nazi websites and they found that for every negative Obama post, there were 2 or 3 anti-Hillary posts. That woman can bring the hate, when she as a white woman is more hated by the white supremacists than the black man.
March 3, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think a Richardson ticket attracting Hispanics would be a great way to put to rest all those ugly "Hispanics are racists against blacks" rumors.
March 3, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's what--five weeks?--between the MS Primary on the 11th and the PA Primary on the 22nd of April, so there's certainly space on the calendar.
As an Obama guy, I'd welcome this, too. Obama would seemingly be able to marshall the resources necessary to win the state outright.
March 2, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Furion writes:
There is no monolithic entity called "the Republicans", any more than there is one called "the Democrats". There may be more repubs who think Obama will be tougher to beat and more repubs who hate Hillary, but as with dems, there are a whole range of opinions. It's impossible to know what Christ really thinks.
March 2, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poor choice of words, perhaps; it's hard to figure out exactly how to describe the group to whom this idea applies. I should have noted Republicans I know, chat with on other boards, and some GOP strategists I read about the other day who were passing on what THEY had heard.
March 2, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll pass on what I heard from my friend and business partner, who is a libertarian-conservative (with an accepting view of government regulation)---he finds McCain unappealing, hates Hillary and would be sort of content with Obama. He also expects some more traction from the Rezko story, that it will be a significant challenge to meet.
My friend is very sharp, even if he does listen to Rush, and does lots of his own political research. He surprised me by saying "Change is good---the last thing we need is more of the same." He suggested a weak moment for Obama was having Ted Kennedy in the background of a picture.
March 2, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this actually benefits Clinton.. but not as much as she thinks it does. She would probably win Florida, but not by much. The delegate lead would not really change. Problem is, she could use this to argue that she wins the big states (assuming she takes TX and OH - hey I'm a pessimist).
March 3, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that this is to show that rethugnicans believe in the right to vote - as long as it is not in an election with a repuke participating!
Charlie Christ for VP candidate! Ongoing rumors of homosexuality! Spokesman for Florida Childrens Services arrested for Child Pornography - after getting the position on the 'recommendation' of Christ! I'm all in favor of him being the repugnican vp candidate!!!
March 3, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice catch!
A GOP engineered do-over primary in say July. Dean's already offered to pay both states for caucuses. DNC pays for one in MI same day.
March 3, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
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