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Tuesday predictions.
As a long-time lurker on liberal sites, I'm going to take the jump and make my predictions public. My previous claim to fame was my December prediction that McCain will shoot the gap and win the Republican primary by taking advantage of the splintered GOP. But I never imagined he would have such an easy time of it!
This is the most interesting Democratic primary since the 80s. My Tuesday predictions:
TX Obama by 6%.
OH Clinton by 2%
RI Clinton by 5%
VT Obama by 15%.
Senator Obama will win a slight plurality of Tuesday delegates.
The race will continue for at least another week.
Full disclosure: I voted for Obama. Clinton was my third choice until Edwards dropped out. I kind of like Hillary personally but she has surrounded herself with a wretched political team and I'm suffering from a mild case of Clinton fatigue. I believe Obama has the possibility of leading the way to a Democratic wave this fall.
Comments (3)
I was in middle school but I thought JFK's was the most exciting primary in my lifetime until this one came along. In the spirit of putting my predictions--pulled right out of my, well, never mind--out for everyone to read, here goes.
TX, Obama by 10%
OH, Obama by 1%
RI, Clinton by 1%
VT, Obama by 12%
The only reason I didn't make these predictions even better for Obama is simply because I think Clinton has improved her ground game a bit--but it simply won't be enough. If Obama does do a heck of a lot better than my predictions, I will be the first one in line celebrating. :)
March 2, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are right except about Ohio. I live here and from the GOTV effort I see mobilizing, I think it may end with Obama +2. I'm not sure the polls can really measure what we are seeing in real time.
It's crazy!
But even if he loses, it's going to be close. Too close for Clinton to get make up a delegate deficit.
March 2, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the following three factors: 1) the recent polls which show Obama either closing the gap or leading and on an upward trend, 2) Obama's certifiably superior ground game, and 3) The recent results which all show Obama besting average poll predictions by from 3 to 8 points (see point 2 above) my guess is:
Obama by double digits (10 to 14) in Texas, Obama by a hair (1 to 3) in Ohio, either a dead heat in R.I. or Hillary by no more than 3 to 5, although Obama could pull it out, which is unlikely but there's not much polling there and a lot of students, and 16 to 20 point lead for Obama in Vermont.
He wins 3 out of the 4, which should put Hil away soon, and if he wins R.I. (unlikely) for a sweep, get her to drop out on Wednesday.
March 2, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
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