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The endorsement by Bill Richardson: huge or insignificant?

What's the significance of of the Richardson endorsement of Barack Obama?  

One thing is very tangible, Obama picks up another superdelegate endorsement. According to the good folks at demconwatch, Obama continues to cut into Hillary's suyperdelegate lead. It is now down to only 35 when it was in 90s one month ago. 

Another thing that will be interesting to watch - does Richardson begin actively campaigning and fundraising for Obama in the remaining states? I would assume that he would. That's one of the ways that John Edwards won the VP nod in 2004. People might start calling Obama-Richardson the new "dream ticket."  

Richardson's endorsement also gives Obama some fresh and needed good news. 

Probably the biggest question of the day: what's the impact of this endorsement on the other party elders, superdelegates, and voters? I would say, of those three groups, the impact on voters will be minimal to non-existent, including Latino voters. Endorsements by fellow politicians rarely have any meaningful impact on voters choices (in my opinion).  But the impact this could have on the superdelegates and party elders could be huge, depending on the respect that Richardson truely has within the party. 

Will others who've held back from endorsing Obama now feel free to do so? Is this the beginning of a flood of endorsements to Obama because superdelegates feel that Obama is going to win the nomination anyway and the only way to end the ugliness of the primary is to back Obama?

Another scenario would be that some big superdelegate is out there who has been leaning Hillary and will try to balance out the Richardson endorsement by going public for her. Edwards would be big but highly unlikely given that his staff, donors, and backers have mostly unified around Obama. Maybe Mike Gravel?

My opinion: Being an Obama supporter, I've got the built-in Obama bias but my sense is that Richardson is highly respected in the party and his endorsement is huge in the impact it will have with other superdelegates. When I heard that Edwards was going on the Tonight Show last night I also thought that he's getting back in the news at this might be a sign that he's going to re-engage in the Democratic primary process. We'll see if he makes a move too.

If Richardson is campaigning and fundraising and making the talk show circuits, I've got to think that the other supers are going to start making a move as well. 


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Comments (48)

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How totally disappointing. I am disappointed in Richardson, not only for forgetting who has helped him in the past as so many Obama supporters have, but for the latino community who have remained loyal to Hillary because she helped them and they are a loyal people, who must be badly hurt by this endorsement. The people saw thru the Kennedy endorsement and they will see thru this one too. How shameful Mr Richardson did not do the right thing. Talk about politics as usual. I honestly thought he might be one of the ones who were above it. Obama/Richardson? Is that the deal?

Maybe Richardson is deciding that making the right choice (for him) is more important than being loyal.

It seems like we should be able to continue to respect people who only commit the sin of supporting a fellow Democrat (be it a friend or a politician).

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I don't have a problem with Richardson voting different that his state or different than Hispanics. Supers vote their conscience. But I do wonder if your opinion would be the same if a super from a state that went for Obama voted for Clinton.

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I've had quite enough of the politics of personal loyalty for the last 8 years. Enough!

Do the right thing for the entire country.

"did you know Richardson is hispanic?" Does that mean that everything he does has to go through the "be loyal to hispanics first" filter?

How about the "Senator Obama has the lead and will retain the lead and the only way Senator Clinton can win the nomination is to break the party" filter? Personnaly, I don't think it's a filter. I think it's reality.

I am quickly losing respect for Senator Clinton's scorched-earth tactics to try and regain the lead and win the nomination - no matter what. It's the 'no matter what' side of her campaign that is much too Rovian for my tastes.

Did Richardson do the right thing? Yes.
Will it make much of a difference? No.

I honestly thought he might be one of the ones who were above it. Obama/Richardson? Is that the deal?

I find that ticket very unlikely. (I'd like it, but I just don't see it happening.) It's unfortunate that's the only reason you can imagine that Richardson might endorse Obama.

I support Clinton, but I think this is good news for Obama.

Politics is politics, he needs to change the subject from Wright as soon as possible.

So he will benefit from the passport story and the Richardson story. Good for him

I do wonder about the timing of the endorsement by my governor, and posted a question on my blog. Why would Bill pick Good Friday morning to endorse? No big newspaper headlines, and Good Friday?

I don't know how much this helps Obama. It does help but it may have more influence with other SD's than it does with voters. Tough to say.

It is interesting that Richardson chose Obama over his buddy's wife. Very interesting.

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I really thought better of him, now I can see he is not loyal. The Clintons helped him so much, I am sad at how disappointed Hillary must feel right now. Of all the candidates, I thought he would have been the most supportive, but I guess politics is politics. Too bad, he has lost my support and any loyalty I felt towards him. Pitiful, just pitiful..

Perhaps, despite his loyalties to the Clintons, he felt it was incumbent upon him to actually support the candidate who would make the better president and the better leader.

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Now THAT's just NUTS! ;-)

I suspect Richardson's endorsement is the first of a cascade of big-name superdelegate endorsements for Obama over the next couple weeks or so.

Richardson is a well-liked and well-respected party elder. You can be sure his endorsement of Obama was not made without consultation with his peers in the party. With Obama obtaining both the most popular votes and pledged delegates a virtual certainly, I don't think the party elders are going to allow the primary fight to continue much longer for the good of the country and of the party.

I acknowledge this is politics, but the twice used up-thread "politics is politics' seems an attempt to cast Richardson and, more importantly, Obama in the same lot as all others.

He's no different the meme goes.

Well, I look back at 7 plus years of our Dick and Dumbia administration where loyalty was the litmus test for hiring and think hard the about comments above.

And in this morning’s Denver Post I see the headline Rise of the Wordsmiths, by David Olinger.

Now one must be loyal AND a Dumbia or your not qualified.

What is going on?

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Completely not what I said... I don't see Hillary giving anything to anyone that has endorsed her, which I believe is the reason they are NOT endorsing her, What I see are people that she and her husband have helped along the way now turning their backs on her. So why would that be? Remember this is POLITICS, played the same by all players, no matter what anyone says, it has to be played on the same playing field, so that said, what is in it for Richardson?

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Agreed. I believe Obama used his Hopefund to funnel money to future super delegates.

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You think he used the other 2/3 of the money he didn't give back to Rezko? :o)

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I think you underestimate - by 'some,' not by 'a lot' - the impact Richardson's endorsement will have on Latino voters.

Pretty good analysis on how it will affect other superdelegates.

As far as the VP nod going to Richardson, I'm skeptical. For two reasons.

Firstly, Richardson's term has two years to go, and I don't believe it's sound strategy for the Democratic Party to choose a sitting Governor or Senator for the VP slot. We need every last one of them - where they are.

Secondly, I have my doubts that, once Obama wins the nomination, the Party will find comfort in running two minority males for President and VP. A black President will be tremendous, and game-changing. But I suspect the VP choice will be either a woman or a white male.

I've heard other people say this as well about the idea of Obama-Richardson and I understand that thinking. But at the same time, Richardson's foreign policy resume and standing as a respected Governor have to put him in the mix.

I think Obama's going to pick a sitting Governor (who would be replaced by a fellow Dem) and that pretty much narrows the field down to Richardson, Napolitano (AZ), or Sebelius (KS). All three would be solid choices I think.

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I think Obama's going to pick a sitting Governor (who would be replaced by a fellow Dem) and that pretty much narrows the field down to Richardson, Napolitano (AZ), or Sebelius (KS). All three would be solid choices I think.

I don't agree.

We have a very unusual election this year - in that there is no incumbent or sitting VP running. The calculus is different than anything we've seen for a long time. Essentially, once Obama is declared the nominee, we've got a game of 'chicken' between him and McCain - who will announce their pick first?

Both of them will have two picks in their pocket: one for if they're forced to go first, and the other as a response, if they go second.

I believe that it's in Obama's best interest to go first - like, the day he's confirmed as the nominee - and to put his money where his mouth is, by choosing a cross-aisle candidate. Hagel or Chafee.

To this, McCain would likely respond with a younger Bush supporter.

If McCain goes first, I suspect he'll do his best to get Holy Joe on board, for the same reasons Obama would pick Hagel or Chafee. Lieberman isn't exactly champing at the bit - but he might do it.

To that pick, Obama would likely respond to necessity by burning a sitting Democratic Governor - or maybe even a Senator.

In any case, it'll be one of the most interesting hands they'll be playing, in this big game.

I've never understood this fantasy of a cross party nomination as some sort of smart play. It's the same mentality that says that Democrats should act and talk like Republicans to get elected. It's a losing proposition.

I'm not a huge fan of Richardson. But he has just about everything that Obama would want in a nominee so that's why I would put him at the very top of a likely VP list.

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It's the same mentality that says that Democrats should act and talk like Republicans to get elected. It's a losing proposition.

No, you're off-base here I believe. Would choosing cross-aisle be acting like a Republican? I don't think so.

Would it serve to strengthen the message of unity, and working together for the good of our nation? I believe so, given the right circumstances.

We have problems in our country that go far deeper than Party politics, and I believe that even low-information voters understand that. But low-information voters need huge and simple realities, to be swayed.

Politics is a subtle game - to play. But what gets you a single vote is not terribly subtle - a two-by-four upside the head is way more valuable than a lengthy dissertation on "The Prince."

And really - does Chafee act like a Republican? Nope - not even close. And even Hagel - who has violated Reagan's Eleventh Commandment on many occasions - has a mind of his own. A good one, really.

I agree with urbinato here, that this cross-party thing might be more of a fun fantasy to entertain than it is smart politics. My 2cents: it's always wise to pick a governor from a large state, one that you otherwise might not carry. However, the Media Narrative pressure is going to be on to pick the white guy who holds a bigger gun than St. John. Splitting the difference would leave you with Jim Webb.

Essentially, once Obama is declared the nominee, we've got a game of 'chicken' between him and McCain - who will announce their pick first?

McCain will, because the Republican convention is first and it's now become standard policy to announce around this time period.

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I am curious to know your thoughts on what you think might happen if McCain picks a woman or a black VP as his running mate?

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Gee. I'd love for McCain to pick Keyes, or Jean Schmidt.

To be perfectly honest, I think the GOP will be relying on playing the race card too much to have an African-American.

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If you view Obama's ability to unify by what his actions have done to the party versus his words Richardson has made a bad mistake. Since the voters who are opposed to Obama do not see him as a unifying force piling on before the process has played itself out will increase, not decrease the carnage.

So were you opposed to all those superdelgates (mostly members of the DNC) who endorsed Clinton before even one vote was cast this year?


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Heh.

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B. Richardson got his breaks from the Clinton WH back in the day when they said, Bill Who?

Loyalty is part of the political process,and he's part of it.I don't expect too much ink out of this.
Like the article said, it probably won't matter. BR needs to rethink that his state is among the poorest of the nation and it doesn't hurt to be on the side of his old friends. It sounds like he thinks Obama will get the nom.,but it aint over til the fat lady sings. And the passport thing? Nothing came of Bill's snoop, why should this? Actually I don't care.

Hillary is proving to be the comeback lady!

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I got this feeling that McCain is going to come from left field and pick a much younger woman or racially diverse young man, but I don't know the entire field well enough to know who the possibilities might be... anyone??

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"I am curious to know your thoughts on what you think might happen if McCain picks a woman or a black VP as his running mate?"

Given McBush's preferences, he will pick a much younger, attractive blonde woman... Monica Goodling perhaps?

Most people think Florida's or South Carolina's Governor will get the nod from McCain to boost his conservative credentials...however, he'll probably only have to do this if Obama is the nominee.

I can't believe Hillary supporters are so dismissive of anything that happens to Barack it then means rewriting the truth about bad things that happened to BILL. That passport fiasco was a politically-charged investigation, swept under the rug.

Ms...for racially diverse young man, I would say Bobby Jindahl of LA. For woman, Kay Bailey Hutchinson is talked about. But I still contend the GOP is going to want to race-bait as much as possible (even if Hillary does pull this thing out.) I'm thinking he'll do a young strong conservative.

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anneeliz,I don't see McCain pulling the race thing. Watching him over the last 20 years or so, his integrity would prohibit him from directly attacking him. He has alot to work with regarding O's lack of foreign policy, AND as we can see from his current musings he can almost pick a subject that the press hasn't held Obama's feet to the fire on and dig up something. I will look up some information on your names as I do think McCain will go in a different direction than every one thinks he will. Thanks!

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Talk about speeches, did you see that VP Speech given by Bill R. today, and the follow up by Barack building him up as the greatest.

We had the little girl with the mustard and relish sandwich, the elderly black man, and after today the whisper "Katrina" to save Bill at one of the debates. Can't wait for the next inspiring story.

Look out Bill, Barack will use you and lose you, unless your name is Wright.

Another thought, McCain picks Hillary, how about that for chess moves pundants???

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Actually, the real news on the passport thingy is that all of the presidential candidates passports were compromised. So, why is Obama's story the break news?

As has been noted, Hillary's was compromised in a training session and no disciplinary action came of it, because it was done in plain sight of trainees and trainers--clearly not politically motivated. McCain and Obama's were both breached recently, by a contractor.

There may be something to it yet. Give the story time.

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Richardson’s strength in Western states shouldn't be underestimated. Apart from Obama securing the caucus format and the left-left liberal hold outs (both strong in activism), Barack doesn't match up the best with demographics out West. Richardson could do him some good in Eastern Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota and maybe later in CA Central Valley if Obama wins the nomination. Richardson's strongest shows are said to be with the Latino vote, but they don’t factor in the last stretch of the race as much as the overlooked (far too long overlooked -if you ask this “half-breed”) First Peoples vote. Richardson, under Clinton, did some real good work for the Indian population. Actually, the best examples of working toward equality in the history of this Nation happened under the Clinton Era. For blacks, Latinos, and First Peoples. There is no ifs, or buts on this one, and Richardson certainly recognizes this reality -as well as his former role -as he tries to rustle up votes for Obama.

There is no cynical reason to believe Hillary Clinton will be any less successful securing rights for all members of society as well as honoring treaties and securing health care. Former Principal Chief Wilma Pearl Mankiller supports Hillary because of her decades of long and trusted commitment to the health and wealth of First Peoples, and for her dedication to securing health care.

Central talking points for Richardson will need to offer more than the rhetoric arguing Obama is “once in a lifetime” or “you get only one chance”. People know water rights, education, equal pay, health care, and treaty rights are long lived struggles surpassing far too many “best of the best of the best” presidents.

I tend to think Richardson should try to work the domestic side of the argument. Richardson would do himself and Obama a favor and not talk foreign policy, least he frighten some of Obama’s antiwar votes. He “should” make Obama’s largest and most active group of voters -- the garden variety soft foreign policy oriented liberal-- cringe. Richardson turned off several left liberals early on -and was effectively labeled hawkish and too close to Clinton! I believe even Josh Marshall criticized Richard’s hawkish foreign policy views. Since Zbig Brzezinski (creator of the “Soviets Vietnam”) is the premiere mastermind behind Obama, I sincerely doubt Richardson backing Obama will even make waves. Still, the bulk of the Obama antiwar foreign policy voters will feel better if Richardson doesn’t mention his own foreign policy views and sticks to the glamorous “once in a lifetime., ...you get only one vote” oratory.

Finally, I think talking about Super Delegates calling the race is way too early. If Clinton wins big in PA and ties or even perhaps wins NC, that would be one more serious win for Clinton after the TX and OH shakedown. A NC win seems hardly likely, but she recently gained nearly 3 points and is currently 5.4% behind Obama in NC --A state with roughly 20% of the population African-American and another 6.5% Latino and/or Hispanic. I’d argue Richardson is trying to keep Obama’s lead and smooth out the racial tension rather than signify that Obama is the guaranteed winner.

.....
also, as I noted over at http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/reduced-impact-for-richardson.php#comment-2669786
the EdOP questions the importance of timing for Obama's wins. The timing of wins is discussed by Jay Cost who runs the horseraceblog at realclearpolitics (dot)com. Cost argues Clinton closes well (see TX and OH), and Obama does best 30 and 15 days from the vote. So, Richardson coming exactly 30 days before PA seems pretty much like standard strategy....

35% of voters in the Dem primary will be African American. Latinos make up less than 1% of registered voters.Republicans cannot vote in the Dem primary.

The Dem Party establishment is starting to publicly endorse Obama because - like in other red presidential states - the party sees Obama as someone who helps rather than harms the Democrats running locally. In NC we have a Democratic controlled legislature and a Clinton nomination could make it much harder in NC politically if the GOP were to take one of the chambers. That's why Obama is winning in red states - winning locally matters.

"what his actions have done to the party"

I know...I don't know why it's not legally called treason when someone who's winning an election is selfish and cynical enough not to drop out.

ouch

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Much like the Texas caucus, this is both huge and insignificant.

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I do not understand the 'loyalty' talk. I despise any politician who puts personal loyalty to an individual over duty to the American people.

Is it so hard for Hillary's supporters to believe that some people might just do what they think is the right thing for the country?

I know Hillary hasn't done that these past few months, but it doesn't make it impossible.

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For sure, Richardson will add some experience and credability to Barack's campaign. I'll wait a bit to comment on judgement.

I can't think of a better man for Barack to pick as a running mate. We will have to wait to see if it actually happens, or if it was just a carrot, dangled at a very convient time

Anyone have any better candidates to suggest?

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Well, this is significant in that it shows that "race" is an important factor and there is no getting around it now. Richardson made that point quite clear in his endorsement today that it is about Hispanics. Also this will only help if Obama becomes the nominee because it was mentionned that only about 5% of Hispanics have not voted already. I also noticed in the article how he mentionned he would exchange winks and eyerolls with Obama when someone at the debates said something stupid. This sounds like the old boys club with race thrown in as well. I am disappointed in Ricahrdson that if he was going to endorse Obama he do so in the manner he did today.

What "his actions" have done to the party? what on earth are you talking about. This whole thing is not about anything Obama has done, it's about (i) what he hasn't done (i.e., sever all ties with the black community, as personified by Rev Wright), (ii) what he is as an ethnic category or charicature (i.e., an American hating muslim), (iii) what we are supposed to imagine he lacks the experience to do, (iv) what we are supposed to imagine he is really thinking (as opposed to those empty words he keeps using), and (v) what we don't know about him, whatever that might be, not that I know anything personally. When does campaign by innuendo by kitchen sink innuendo, thrown from inside a glass house, get translated into Obama's "actions, as opposed to his words" doing something to the party. Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson have earned my disgust, which doesn't come that easy, and Hillary is ultimately the one responsible for choosing to listen to and them and followtheir lead, and to Bill (who suddenly is developing a tin ear for politics) rather than that voice she supposedly found in New Hampshire (where is that voice by the way? I really liked that voice -- one helluva lot more than the one we have been hearing since Wisconsin)

The endorsement would have meant a lot less if it hadn't turned into such a wonderful photo op. Talk about giving the nightly news something to run!

And what was it that ran? A politician revealing the good humor and generosity of another politician when they're supposed to be opposing each other.

What does that say about their relationship? What does it say about Mr. Obama's persona?

That they actually like each other even when competing? Yup. (And we saw Mr. Obama doing that during the debates he's had with Mrs. Clinton, too.)

That Mr. Obama appears to prefer working with, rather than working against? Yup.

That Mr. Obama is willing to jump in and help a competitor rather than throw him under the train? Yup.

That even when he should be taking himself deadly seriously, Mr. Obama does the good willed and generous thing? Yup.

That Mr. Obama is behaving the way he's been talking about on the campaign trail? Yup.

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