Republicans skew demographics and vote in Mississippi
Healy and Zeleny's "reporting" in
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/us/politics/13dems.html?hp
does not even mention that 25% of Hillary's vote was from Republicans.
Using several pretty safe assumptions we can reach several conclusions that are relevant.
Assumption 1: Virtually all of the 25% were white inasmuch as there is a decided paucity of black Republicans in Mississippi.
Assumption 2: Virtually all of the 25% were members of "Limbaugh's Legion" sent to help nominate the Republicans
favorite Democratic candidate, HRC.
Reported exit poll fact: Obama captured 26-27% of the whites voting in the primary. This number has been commented on as "of concern" by several TV pundits. This "concern" is, I believe, overstated. Moreover when you subtract the 38,922 "white" votes (the bogus Repub votes) from the total number of white voters it will increase Obama's per centage share of the white vote in Mississippi significantly. Unfortunately without the hard number breakout of black and white voters, I cannot calculate the actual per centage.
Disallowing the Repub HRC voters increases Obama's popular vote margin in Mississippi to 139,045 from 100,123.
Similar chicanery occurred in Texas and Ohio and has gotten next to no definitive coverage in the MSM.
Unfortunately, Pennsylvania is another open primary state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/us/politics/13dems.html?hp
does not even mention that 25% of Hillary's vote was from Republicans.
Using several pretty safe assumptions we can reach several conclusions that are relevant.
Assumption 1: Virtually all of the 25% were white inasmuch as there is a decided paucity of black Republicans in Mississippi.
Assumption 2: Virtually all of the 25% were members of "Limbaugh's Legion" sent to help nominate the Republicans
favorite Democratic candidate, HRC.
Reported exit poll fact: Obama captured 26-27% of the whites voting in the primary. This number has been commented on as "of concern" by several TV pundits. This "concern" is, I believe, overstated. Moreover when you subtract the 38,922 "white" votes (the bogus Repub votes) from the total number of white voters it will increase Obama's per centage share of the white vote in Mississippi significantly. Unfortunately without the hard number breakout of black and white voters, I cannot calculate the actual per centage.
Disallowing the Repub HRC voters increases Obama's popular vote margin in Mississippi to 139,045 from 100,123.
Similar chicanery occurred in Texas and Ohio and has gotten next to no definitive coverage in the MSM.
Unfortunately, Pennsylvania is another open primary state.
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Pennsylvania is a closed primary.
March 13, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I stand corrected. Thank you.
One less thing to worry about.
Wes Cain
March 13, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love your two assumptions.
Why not just go for: "Assuming I'm right about everything, this is what happened."
March 13, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you doubt the accuracy of the assumptions?
In other words, do you really believe :
1. That a significant number of the Republicans who voted in the primary were white? (How many Afro American Republicans do you suppose there are in Mississippi?)
2. That a significant number of Deep South Republicans (10% of the total) were converted to vote for an Afro American liberal candidate?
If you don't think that is the case then how do you explain the fact that 105 of Clinton's vote was white?
Wes Cain
March 13, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink