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Re: Stickin' (or Should Hillary Get Out)
It is my belief that Hillary should drop out for the good of the party, and that her friends and party leaders who are not associated with Obama should be nudging her. Here's why.
1. If she had a chance to win without trashing the remaining candidate, then she could stay. I have seen no evidence that this is the case; the math does not work for her unless she totally trashes him, which would be very bad for the party. (I don't think she could win in November if she did this.)
2. If she had serious policy differences (on the scale of pro-war, anti-war: I mean serious, not details of their health plans), then she would have justification to stay. But this is not the case.
3. If he represented something that was anathema -- a moral failing like corruption, or who knows what else-- that might justify her staying. Again, not the case.
4. If it really looked like he could not win in November-- not by some secret backroom math, but in the big, public polls, then she could stay in. But he is ahead in the polls.
5. If she were a maverick and an outsider running against the party establishment (McGovern, etc.) that might justify her staying in. But she is not, she is the establishment.
Here's the thing: There is no real difference between these two candidates on the issues; people with major credibility are backing Obama and saying he has the experience and judgment to be president (so she can't claim the electorate is somehow duped, not a good position for a person who wants to be elected anyhow); and there is no reason to think that he will treat her favorite constituencies (shall we say, women and blue collar workers) badly- on the contrary.
Honestly, as far as I can see, all we are left with is, she really, really wants to be president. She of course thinks she would be better, but I think pretty much by definition every candidate thinks this.
Her personal desire for the office does not justify her behavior.
Complaining about and trying to game the rules is also not justified, given #1-5 above.
And here's the downside, of course: she is running the risk of destroying the party's chances in the fall.
I believe she owes the party a certain loyalty, and absent reasons 1-5, I see no justification for her to stay in. In fact, I believe it makes her judgment suspect.
This is a different question from whether Obama and his folks ought to be calling for her to get out; I think that is primarily a political question, and the current politics of it are that they should not.
But I do believe that party leaders (or those who aspire to be party leaders) both neutral and supporting Hillary should be calling for her to get out, either publically and/or behind closed doors.
Because a lot of damage is being done to the party and its nominee, and Clinton has no justification at the point beyond her desire to win. Which is not enough. This is not a game. We are talking about the future of our party and our country.
It is my profound hope that she is only planning to stay in through Pennsylvania. I do understand that she has to sound determined until the day she drops out. But I am particularly alarmed by Josh's suggestion (which makes sense to me) that she has only one way of campaigning, and that is full-tilt, no holds barred.
If she had any judgment and concern for the country, she would drop out now; and if she has lost perspective in the midst of a hard fight (which certainly can happen) then her friends owe it to her to tell her what the situation is.







Comments (19)
Great post, Ann H. I agree 100%.
two comments:
1) where the heck are those tax returns? and library donor list? and earmark lists? Has the media decided that after the bosnia blast they should back off and stop asking her any "tough" questions?
2) how is Hillary's (and Obama's) fundraising doing? this is absolutely key for her ability to carry on. Haven't heard anything in ages from Obama, I hope no news is good news? Hillary has a non-real-time fundraising ticker on her website which appears to show her $500K short of tonight's deadline.
March 31, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. She isn't trashing anyone. She has pretty much had to keep the gloves on with Obama with the knowledge that any real politicking would result in the B word coming into use with Hillary even more than it is now.
2. Your right. Except that BHO hasn't come up with an original idea of his own. Great at cobbling together others ideas(mostly HRC's) but he hasn't proposed anything that is "novel". So in comparison to the original proposer of Universtal Health Care he is pretty ho-hum
3. If he represented an anathema - go see Wright controversey.
4 He can't win in November. Its clear he is going to have a tough time in Rust Belt States that have to be won for a Democrat to be elected. Again, just on that alone he shouldn't get the Nomination.
5. If she were an outsider? Not sure that matters but no she isn't . Nor is Obama, Nor was McGovern.
Lastly, if you need to see tax returns your probably in the wrong party. Its something I'd expect to hear from Sean Hannity.
March 31, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hilary isn't trashing anyone, I'd hate to see her when she does.
If Obama has no original ideas, why does his whole approach--starting with the speech at the last convention--seem like such a breath of fresh air? At a minimum, though Obama didn't invent inclusiveness and tolerance, he is at least trying to bring them back after they went out of style.
Obama is anathema because of Wright. Lots of us simple folk went to all-white Southern Baptist churches where the good reverends preached hatred of the different and screamed every Sunday that we were going to hell. Based on their ravings, are we all anathema? For decency's sake, you must concede that Hilary's pastor has an ounce of human kindness in coming to Wright's defense and not demanding that Obama face eternal damnation by association.
He can't win in December, though he does better than Hilary in almost every poll, despite every vile thing she can think of to say. Meanwhile, her negatives rise. Why could that be?
Can Hilary united anybody to try to accomplish some positive thing, or only try to destroy anyone and everyone in her path? What is Hilary going to contribute to the Democratic Party and this country other than competent policies and fulminating malice?
March 31, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, Louisville, you are not going to be persuaded by anything I say.
But regarding electability: it's not up to Hillary to decide who is electable. It is up to the voters, and they have pretty much decided, are deciding, and, barring being overruled by superdelegates, will decide. It really doesn't matter what Hillary's opinion is.
Regarding original ideas: I disagree entirely with what you wrote about Obama, but it is all irrelevant at this point. Right now, all that is left is numbers. Hillary had plenty of time to persuade the American people with the dazzle of her ideas. Now it is too late for that, the numbers have been added up, and she can't win.
Regarding Wright: again, the voters seem to have decided. Remember them? They seem to understand Obama's position on race, and they are not getting stuck on the sound bites of the Right. Furthermore, for Hillary to continue to push this is totally hypocritical. Either Bill Clinton is not who he has been alleged to be in terms of his relationship with black America (which is possible) or (and/or) he and she understand perfectly well what Wright was saying, and how it was taken out of context.
My point about her being an outsider was simply, if she were, she would have more justification to trash the party. However, having been well-served by the Democratic party, for her now to put her personal ambition above the party is pretty despicable. (Neither is Obama an outsider; but he is treating the party with respect, so it is not the issue.)
My overall point was, it is now about the voters and the numbers. Without extraordinary justification, I do not think Hillary is entitled to continue to campaign. And I see no extraordinary justification, except her extreme desire to be president.
I actually sympathize with her disappointment. At another time, I might be supporting her. The thing is, right now, to face the numbers. Obama has them and she doesn't. The numbers are just not there. Unless she can come up with a better reason for staying in than she has so far, she needs to get out.
March 31, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Get on the bandwagon for the sake of the bandwagon. If you can't espouse a single orignal idea the man has then why are you voting for him?
March 31, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great summary, Ann.
For those who would like Hilary to stay in, I would ask them to explain what she is contributing at this point to Democratic prospects, her own or Obama's.
What is she contributing, for example, by challenging the legitimacy of most Obama delegates in the Texas caucuses in pro-Obama districts, as described on Burnt Orange Report. It smells like a Republican vote suppression effort, especially considering the round of false messages about conventions being moved or rescheduled. The Texas Democratic Party was forced to deny these rumors. We usually see these tactics used against minorities by Republicans in the general election. Why now on Hilary's side in the Democratic nominating process?
Ask Hilary supporters to explain what the party will gain from Hilary's suggestions that the party must nominate her because the Democratic Party can only win with a heavy turnout of women, and women will only turnout for Hilary. That tactic is likely to inspire black voters to turn out only for Obama. The Democratic Party goes nowhere without women or blacks so this strategy is a loser for either candidate.
If Hilary is to stay in, let her tell us how she will unite the party and the country, how she will rally us to win larger Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. We have seen enough of how she can divide Democrat from Democrat, gender from gender and race from race.
We have seen her gifts as a divider. Let her show us her gifts as a uniter.
We have seen her toughness run rampant in slash and burn campaign tactics. Let us see her decency at work in healing wounds, dousing fires and lifting Democratic prospects.
March 31, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Primaries and Caucuses are for Dem voters. I applaud her going to make sure those folks that were there were members of the party.
I think its healthy for our party to go to the Convention. We haven't done it in a long time. Its going to give us more light on the Nominee than could ever been gotten with the usual "show" convention. Not even to mention that neither candidate has enough delegates to win on a first ballot.
If she bows out now under pressure from the party I want you to tell me how Obama gets the party to Unite.
I ask how do you nominate a guy that isn't going to be able to garner the necessary Electoral Votes to win?
March 31, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Truly it was noble of Hilary to ensure that no nonDemocrats voted for Obama at the caucuses and county conventions. Strange that her minions were not concerned about whether Hilary's supporters at caucuses were members of the party, no?
Do you applaud Republicans for forcing all black people to drive past state police and humiliating challenges to exercise their right to vote? General elections are for registered voters. The Republicans are as noble in their devotion to democracy ass Hilary in the fierce focus on voters likely to support the other side.
When Ted Kennedy went to the convention, our party lost the general election. Harold Ickes was working for Ted Kennedy at the time and is for Hilary now. It isn't as if Hilary's campaign doesn't know what is at risk. They have just decided it's worth risking the loss of this election to get the nomination for Hilary, and, if Obama gets the nomination, to ensure that he loses.
As for electoral votes, why does Obama do better vs. McCain in more states, including big ones, than Hilary does? How do you nominate a woman who is losing in almost every poll except a few select places, and driving her own negatives through the roof, alienating half the Democrats and most independents while already loathed by Republicans everywhere?
You are saying the party can't unite behind Obama because you and other Hilary supporters will never stand for it. That is a shame but so be it.
Again, tell me how Hilary brings us together? Obama's objective is to reach out and unite. Odds are against his succeeding thanks to Hilary. Fine. How is Hilary going to restore the unity she shattered? Where is her vision for anything other than tearing down her opponent? Where is yours?
March 31, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course I don't Lifelong. However, part of the problem with this process is that Independents and Repubs have been able to drop into the Party and vote to their hearts content. Which isn't what its all about. Primaries aren't General Elections.
Denying people the ability to vote in an Election is despicable. Our rules for voting are so antiquated that it is embarrassing. Just as Caucuses run at night while Single moms and union guys that work second can partake are just as embarrassing.
You can try to paint me with whatever brush you want to because I don't back the Coronation.....But I am none of that.
March 31, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Louisville, I'm certainly with you in preferring primaries to caucuses.
The problem I had with the challenges in Texas is that there were no apparent grounds for them. The percentage of delegates successfully excluded was incredibly small. It was just harassment and in some cases it did drive Obama supporters home, partly because, as you suggest, they had other responsibilities and couldn't devote their lives to the caucus process.
March 31, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not positive about Texas and I am sensitive to the fact that it could happen. I am saying that if it did it was wrong. I really hope that the party fathers have learned a lesson in this season. Not sure if it will ever happen again in my lifetime. One thing we can surely agree on is that its been an exciting contest. Selfishly I'd like to see an old fashioned convention instead of the usual fluff.
March 31, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lifelong,
I'll tell you what the party has to gain by encouraging HRC to stay in. It gains the respect of every American who believes in the process of letting the people vote in the primaries. It gains the respect of those 46% of us who have voted for Clinton, and who believe that she still has a chance -- maybe it's a 5% chance today, but it might be a 15 or 20% chance in a few weeks.
I'll also tell you what the party has to LOSE by continuing to press her to drop out. They lose my vote. They lose my confidence. They lose the support of anyone who feels disenfranchised by a process that is supposed to enfranchise the people.
March 31, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those are good arguments depending on the nature of the campaign. I agree Hilary should not be forced out, and certainly not by Obama supporters, sassi2j. I agree it is good to let more people vote.
That's true unless the campaign that continues is waged in such a divisive and destructive way that neither Hilary nor Obama has a chance in November. In fact, if Hilary hadn't taken such a destructive, divisive approach, most of us would have been happy for her to win the nomination and the White House.
The two examples I cited--Texas vote suppression and an implied women's boycott of Obama--are divisive and destructive for both Hilary and Obama. Your rebuttal failed to address that issue. Is it your position that all's fair, regardless of the consequences? That Obama deserves the worst she can do to him, so she should go at it?
I would contrast Hilary's manner of staying in with Huckabee's in the Republican nominating process. Huckabee tried to convince people he had more to offer. Hilary is trying to convince people that Obama is not even a viable candidate--that delegates have no alternative but to choose her because Obama can't win, can't be commander-in-chief, can't stand up to the Republicans, has a million skeletons in his closet that will come out through the Republican attack machine--as though the Republican hit men care whether any accusation is true; there'll be appalling charges from the Swiftboat crowd against Hilary or Obama, no matter what.
Obama will be painted as a Muslim. Hilary will be exposed as a lesbian, according to my Republican neighbors. They can hardly wait to see the job that will be done on Hilary and every friend or roommate she ever had. In no time, the Republicans will be saying anybody who has a Hilary bumper sticker or plans to vote for Hilary is gay or lesbian. That's always been part of the subtext of Republican attacks on feminists so get ready for it now.
Does the fact that Republican hatemongers will hurl such charges mean Hilary should withdraw? Neither should Obama give up because Hilary says he can't withstand the Swiftboaters and implies they will have plenty of ammunition.
What's the point of saying the Democratic Party's leading candidate is fatally flawed and can't win? Can't Hilary just make the case that she has more to offer the country and then abide by the voters judgment?
March 31, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going to jump on the drop out of the race bandwagon.
But it seems Hillary is defining herself by what Barack isn't, rather than what she is.
I want to know why she should be President, not why someone else shouldn't.
And "because I said so" isn't a good enough reason.
March 31, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
She actually was first to define her ideas on the Economy, Health Care, The War, you name it. I asked Ann and I will ask you. What original idea has he brought to the table that separates him from not only Hillary but McCain as well.
March 31, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Louisville, national healthcare was Truman's idea, or at least he was the first to try getting it. Hilary's and Obama's plans are very similar and derived from the same study. They would both like to go straight to true universal insurance and don't think it's politically possible in a straightforward way. They differ on what sort of plan they could actually get votes for. I'm for single-payer myself, and that's not on the table because nobody thinks it's possible.
There were lots of people with plans for getting out of Iraq, or not getting into Iraq, before Hilary and Obama. A plan to get out is a fantasy anyway because withdrawal will depend on how military opposition reacts--withdrawal will have to be done as safely as possible, and there will also have to be consideration of what sort of government grabs power as we go out the door.
There's nothing really remarkable in either economic plan either until you contrast it with Bush and McCain. Neither candidate has invented a new approach to economics. Both are drawing on similar groups of advisers. We have to hope they'll be able to figure out how to cope with what is shaping up as an unprecedented economic crisis, where we start out with an enormous debt and risk a complete collapse of confidence in the dollar, and then have all these other problems like the mortgage/housing crisis piled on. What they actually have to do will depend on the extent of the meltdown when they take office.
March 31, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, then you'll agree that without a clear winner,(lead of 100 or so delages isn't clear)that we should take this to the convention? If your hillary would you drop out? Would you say Obama should if he was in Hillary's position?
March 31, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Louisville, what is the route by which she wins? How does she get the numbers? The superdelgates are not breaking her way. Does she so trash Obama that he becomes non-viable? Or what path do you see that justifies her staying in? Show me the numbers.
March 31, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Garnering a large coalition of voters from all ideological backgrounds in active pursuit of pushing through policies that benefit America as a whole and and empowering it's citizens- all of them, to be responsible and take part in making the changes necessary for our country to prosper in an uncertain future. Giving Democrats a reason to truly be proud of our country, not by starting wars, but by trying to live up to our ideals. Not the most original thoughts ever to be had in our Democracy, but damned novel in the political climate that has existed since the '60's and damned timely in the partisan trench warfare that's existed since 1994 when the Republicans started exacting revenge for everything they could think of. And original or not, they damn sure didn't come from the "Queen and King of Triangulation".
April 1, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
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