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Race Over By Week's End?
More on the bloc of 50 superdelegates ready to announce for Obama:
U.S. Rep. Lacy Clay, Obama’s Missouri co-chairman and pledged Obama
superdelegate, said that regardless of the superdelegate mathematics,
the campaign is Obama’s. Clay said that later this week, Obama will
gain the support of 50 undecided Democratic superdelegates.“She (Sen. Clinton) will not make up those numbers,” Clay said. “This race is over.”
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Comments (22)
Hm. Now someone else, besides Browkaw, is saying Obama's got 50 delegates-in-waiting.
Methinks Obama's protestations the other day were "Crap, someone leaked our explosive news!"
They NEED that big announcement to have full force, not the trickle of "Yay....." that would result if everyone already knows.
Now I'm left wondering if there really are 50 delegates, or if someone is just smoking crack and making up rumors to tell gullible Obamites.
March 6, 2008 2:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, I've noticed you and I both seem to be around during the wee hours of the morning.. are you a night owl like I am or do you live on the West Coast?
March 6, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Little of column A, little of column B. :)
March 6, 2008 2:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hehe, touche'.
March 6, 2008 2:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is coming straight from the mouth of Obama's Missouri co-chair, so it seems unlikely that it's just some sort of trick. We'll know for sure once the week is out.
Personally, if this is true my guess is that they were expecting to have more definitive showings in Ohio and Texas initially, but decided to keep this in the pocket for a few days rather than pull the trigger right away. Announcing this today, in the wake of what looked like a win for Clinton, might not have been as effective. Give everyone a couple of days to come back down to earth and realize that the score is still the same and then deliver the death blow.
But again, this still doesn't appear to have much more substance than rumor at the moment. It is, however, another source corroborating said rumor.
March 6, 2008 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... my inner strategist is convinced. The re-earthing is already happening. Yahoo's homepage is now reporting that Obama has retained his delegate lead, and it's an AP story meaning we'll see it elsewhere. And CNN has had Obama's Hillary questions up all day.
Like you say, I guess we'll know by the weekend :)
March 6, 2008 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can anyone explain what has happened or will happen to Edwards' delegates? Everything I searched was outdated (but may still be relevant?) And I'll admit this whole delegate/SD thing confuses my newly politically-intrigued mind. Thanks :)
March 6, 2008 2:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
AFAIK, they're still pledged to Edwards, but it's only 26.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
March 6, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
So they are basically canceled out? Or can they at anytime between now and Denver decide to change affiliation? Can they be "wooed" or they are off limits?
March 6, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, technically Edwards has won them, so they are pledged to him. They're not like supers in the sense that they could just up and announce support for one or the other before the convention.
If the primary goes all the way to convention without a nominee, then they'll go to the convention as Edwards delegates, but they'll have to pick one or the other. An Edwards endorsement would be meaningful in this sense.
March 6, 2008 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's more than one vote called, right? I seem to recall that they're only obligated to vote for Edwards on the first vote. After that, they can vote for anyone (true of Hillary's and Obama's pledged delegates, too).
Am I wrong? I'm a bit sketchy on how the convention actually works. Yet one more reason to move to a caucusing state...
March 6, 2008 3:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your perceptions are correct AFAIK. In fact, these multiple voting cycles were what once gave rise to the phenomenon known as the Dark Horse.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse_candidate
I have my doubts that this will go to convention at any rate. This is going to be decided by the supers. There's no way around it at this point. There are no advantages to waiting until then and potentially huge disadvantages. None of the talk about "letting the people have their say" is relevant. Usually the game is already over by this time. Personally, I even have doubts about this going all the way to PA, but we'll see what happens.
March 6, 2008 3:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Edwards could give them to either candidate right now if he so chose, right? A little care package of votes.. ;)
March 6, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fun facts:
As of early March, the Democrats in the Women's Caucus in Congress break out with endorsements this way (we'll exempt HRC):
63 total Dem women (Senate + House):
34 Endorse HRC
15 Endorse Obama
14 Undecided
This is as much of a peer-group rating as we are likely to see on HRC.
March 6, 2008 4:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Over by the end of the week? Haven't you read about the Governor's of Florida and Michigan demanding their delegates be counted? (Proposal as to how they would redo it is forthcoming)
March 6, 2008 6:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't you read about Howard Dean's response that Michigan and Florida meeting where he said that they have to play by the rules? They will seat the delegates but not the way that the Clintons would like. If the rare chance that they have a re-vote, it will be a caucus (Michigan made it very clear that they don't want to spend any money on this new election that they want and primaries are hugely expensive).
Hillary would freak out. Even though they're acting pleased with the proposition right now, they'd start moving the goal posts as they do and cry foul and blab about how undemocratic they think caucuses are (which of course they'd flip flop on if they actually won any besides Nevada).
March 6, 2008 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
With Nancy Pelosi, a closet Obama supporter, and Donna Brazille, ditto, telling everyone to sit tight, I think that these 50 and other Superdelegates will listen and wait until Obama regains his momentum in Wyoming and Mississippi in the quiet weeks before Pennsylvania. Then they'll do it, and the race will be over.
After Obama starts "drawing contrasts" in his new offensive against Clinton, he is sure to draw some serious blood and remind the Superdelegates, Democrats and the nation just why he really is the best candidate and that he can really fight "with a crowbar" as the NYT said today in their news analysis about Obama's offensive.
They'll be reminded that there is an awfully good reason that folks like Rush Limbaugh, Karl Rove and Ann Coulter want Hillary as the opposition. They know that they will beat her and are scared to death of Obama. Bill Maher made a great point last month when he came out in favor of Obama. The mere sight of Obama and McCain on a stage together will be enough to tip the scale in Democrats' favor.
The Democrats are scared to death that this thing is going on too long and can see that it's already helping the Republicans. When they start seeing blood, they'll give in and do the right thing seeing that Obama actually does have an insurmountable lead.
March 6, 2008 6:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
A good point was made on the TPM Cafe frontpage though - was Rep. Clay just repeating what he heard Brokaw said. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case.
But if the Obama camp has SDs ready to endorse en masse - it might only take 25 - I'd wait to do it after his next victory. That'll probably be Saturday in Wyoming or definitely in Mississippi next week.
March 6, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I'm betting Clay just heard the Brokaw story, as we all did.
March 6, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, if this is true it will happen after the next Obama victories. Also, I posted this before it made the TPM front page. Had I seen that first, I probably would not have posted it.
March 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sigh. Thank you for this post -- I may sleep tonight. I'm a true political junkie and could really get 'into' a prolonged contest, even a brokered convention .... *except* HRC and her campaign are giving me ulcers. It's just sick-making.
Tom Brokow doesn't usually float "rumors" - far from it. And I can't believe that some of those SDs aren't feeling sickish also (esp those running for re-election this fall). So what you suggest is believeable.
Probably more likely after WY and MS than this weekend. So I pray Obama is putting in everything he can into those races. By then, Clinton's star will be less shining, thanks to her own blunders and esp if Obama winds up with the most TX delegates after all(still possible I think).
But would she get out even if they made it absolutely impossible to win? I have to wonder. Still maybe Obama and the press and the rest of us could just ignore her. (Geesh, Billary would really go ballistic at that, wouldn't they!) Well, before I start thinking of realistic hurdles and reasons this might not be so, I think I'll go get that good night's sleep.
Oh, one other interesting/encouraging piece:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080306/cm_huffpost/090169
March 6, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the BHO-50 is for real, given the likely numbers expected from Wyoming and Mississippi, I would expect this thing to come out next Wednesday, maybe Thursday.
If the Man-From-Hawaii-50 is actually a test-balloon sent up for building momentum, it may be held in pocket until a true fifty is assembled.
March 7, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
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