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Quo Vadis Hillary after 2008?

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Earlier this week, I blogged as to whether or not it was time for Hillary Clinton to <a href="http://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2008/03/time-for-clinton-to-close-up-shop.html">close up shop</a> on her campaign, whether before or after the Pennsylvania primary (assuming she doesn’t have a earth-shaking victory, if any, there).


Per the in-depth Politico story and other items linked there, I noted that:

• Her campaign is essentially broke, including the fact that Barack Obama could outspend her 2-1 in Pennsylvania and still have $9 million on hand to drop on North Carolina, given their current finance numbers;

• She would have to do 60-40 in the vote in remaining primaries AND 2-1 in currently unpledged or yet-unnamed superdelegates;

• The release of White House logs from her years as First Lady have put the lie to her claims to have been ardently anti-NAFTA.

 

So, with all that in mind, assuming she doesn’t get the nomination in 2008, what happens to Hillary Clinton’s political life, future and plans after this summer?

 

Speculation 1. If Obama wins in 2008, that puts her next chance of a presidential run in 2016. And, as women like Geraldine Ferraro, or plenty an older Hollywood actress, would surely, and rightly, tell us, ageism has a sexism bias to it.

 

In other words, a 68-year-old Hillary Clinton ain’t going to get the nomination, and not just because she will even more seem to be a link to the past and not an “agent of change” in 2016.

 

Speculation 2. If Obama loses, a lot of intra-Democratic navel-gazing will probably point the finger at her, and quickly. Her 2012 nomination chances might not be “none,” but they would be “slim” indeed.

 

And, would she stay in the Senate, under either speculation? Her seat comes up for re-election in 2012, which would bollix things up more if Obama loses in the general this year.

 

Or, what if Obama wins? Does Clinton get a primary challenger, backed by the Obama White House, in her 2012 Senate race?

 

Hence, the almost desperate quality of her recent campaigning, most recently exemplified by the Slickster <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080322/ap_on_el_pr/obama_patriotism_11">questioning Obama’s patriotism</a>.

 

Huffington Post has more on the Slickster <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/22/hes-back_n_92907.html">as desperation surrogate</a>.

 

For more skeptical left-liberal blogging on a variety of issues, visit <a href="http://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com">SocraticGadfly</a>.


Comments (2)

"If Obama wins in 2008, that puts her next chance of a presidential run in 2016."

You forget that Obama has a wife (8 more years) and two children (another 16). How old will Hillary be in 32 years?

But you never know, what with anti-aging and all that.

Does Clinton get a primary challenger, backed by the Obama White House, in her 2012 Senate race?

Once Obama gets the nomination, look for Obama and Clinton to start acting like they've always been friends (e.g., how the Republicans are currently acting). I don't see the spite-based challenger scenario coming from Obama, either openly or behind-the-scenes.

That said, I think there will be a challenger (regardless of the GE results), and that much of how Clinton acted during this campaign will be thrown back at her then. However, the challenger will most likely not get enough funding and/or have enough name recognition to unseat her.

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