In the last week, the odds have shifted significantly in the direction of Clinton becoming the Democratic nominee. Obama is now walking a tightrope on race while the ground underneath the candidates has shifted to terrain better suited to Clinton's policy surefootedness.

As Obama's speech today illustrated, the Reverend Wright's statements, recent and not-so-recent, put Obama, fairly or unfairly, in a situation where there is both no margin for error and no upside. He needs to distance himself  from the comments without repudiating his past association. He sought to do so by framing the Reverend's comments in the larger context of "we all need to move past race as a defining issue." While this may have been the best he could hope to do, it will likely prove thin gruel for his campaign. Obama will suffer in PA and MI for the association.

Meanwhile, events in the financial markets are exacerbating already stratospheric levels of economic insecurity among voters, and reminding all of the mess in which the GOP has left the country. The desirability of a decisive shift toward Democratic Party policies -- as opposed to a change in tone or how the two major parties work together -- has never been clearer. This dynamic of course dovetails much more closely with Clinton's approach. In addition, for all of Obama's gifts, Clinton generally comes off as more seasoned in addressing the details of policy.

Under these circumstances, a narrow lead in pledged delegates will not assure Obama the nomination if he loses handily in PA and MI. Nor should it -- any superdelegate who doesn't take into account both candidate momentum and the
potential impact of Wright's statements in the general election will be
guilty of political malpractice.