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Obama's Simple Route to a Decisive Victory
Now I might be all wet here, but I think I see a way for Obama to close this deal within the next few weeks. It's bold, it's unconventional, and it's straightforward.
Obama should insist that the Florida and Michigan delegations are seated. Period. No revotes, no special allotment, nothing. Give Clinton the extra delegates. Put to rest any accusation that Obama's victory is the result of gamesmanship or disenfranchisement.
It's like the point in a chess game when you see that by sacrificing your queen you have mate in five.
If Obama shows that he's willing to go out on a limb in this way, it will project a showing of strength and confidence that Clinton will not be able to overcome. I suspect that, if Obama were to do this, he would have superdelegates declaring their support for him in record numbers. Undecideds in the remaining primary states, and even marginal Hillary supporters, would be moved to support him. It would generate another groundswell in fundraising support. It would put upset Florida and Michigan democrats fully behind the democratic nominee again. And it would deprive Hillary of one of her last arguments.
Quite frankly, Obama can win this race even with Florida and Michigan seated. If Obama waits too long, his decision to seat the delegations will seem disingenuous and dismissive: as if to say, "It doesn't matter what you think Florida, so we'll let you in anyway." But by making the announcement when it still appears that it could sway the outcome of the race, Obama would gain an immense tactical advantage from the act. And the risk of an actual Clinton victory is largely illusory.
Quite frankly, Obama's campaign is all about taking the high road. Obama needs to seat Florida and Michigan, and the sooner he does it, the more mileage he can get from it.







Comments (41)
I like this! But...........there is a problem with his changing his mind about rule breaking, also Howard Dean. After all there should be a price for breaking rules. It might backfire but readily agree it could solve a very sticky situation.
March 30, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying something like this for weeks. If he puts it in terms of healing the party, he wins with it, has gravitas.
But a few caveats: He has to get delegates in MI -- she can't get them all. That's crazy.
I have also proposed that he offer her a deal where she still benefits but doesn't get the delegations seated, as is. She'd turn it down, and then who would look craven and mean-spirited?
But the concept of offering her some kind of deal -- I've even emailed the campaign about it.
For some reason, they don't take my sage advice.
March 30, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying something like this for weeks. If he puts it in terms of healing the party, he wins with it, has gravitas.
But a few caveats: He has to get delegates in MI -- she can't get them all. That's crazy.
I have also proposed that he offer her a deal where she still benefits but doesn't get the delegations seated, as is. She'd turn it down, and then who would look craven and mean-spirited?
But the concept of offering her some kind of deal -- I've even emailed the campaign about it.
For some reason, they don't take my sage advice.
March 30, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I'd like this strategy more if Karl Rove hadn't suggested it on March 26. Ouch. ;-)
March 30, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hadn't seen that. And I hate being on the same page as Rove. Of course, the main difference is that I think Obama should make this play today, and not wait until the primaries are finished.
Also, I don't buy the argument that Obama loses something by edging away from the "play by the rules" stance he's taken heretofore. It's like a provision in a contract: the party that benefits from the provision is free to waive it. Sure, it's Dean's call, but it's silly to think he would hold the line if both candidates wanted to delegations seated. Plus, even if Dean refused, Obama still scores politically.
March 30, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm lazy and behind a deadline with a brief. Can someone briefly state the numbers if the MI and FL delegates are seated as currently designated?
It's a brilliant proposal and goes along with his "she should run as long as she wants" proposal. You just know that there's a lot of back-room maneuvering going on right now; if Obama's guys in the back rooms start advocating seating the delegates in any way that appears to favor Clinton, I bet the whole thing could happen before PA, making Obama look all gracious and presidential and stuff. And seeing how little MI and FL change things could both sway Clinton's supporters and allow her to bow out with at least a shred of dignity.
March 30, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Florida: 111 Clinton, 69 Obama
Michigan: No way this could go as-is.
March 30, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you give Obama the delegaes for uncomitted then you could seat MI.
March 31, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad you are suggesting this, and I agree with you. If either of them wins, it has to be done by counting all votes and then letting the superdelegates get one of them to the "magic" number 2,024.
This even more important if you consider the fact that in Texas, where people could vote twice, all votes were counted, while in FL/MI - none. So we have a situation that Clinton won the popular vote but Obama won the delegates.
But I doubt that Obama will do it.
I don't believe his campaign has been about high road. I see no evidence that he cares about democracy more than running for president.
March 30, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But 2024 is not the magic number with FL and MI. I forget what it is, but it's more like 2175.
March 30, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, of course, whatever that number is.
March 30, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really like your ideas about the high road & giving her FL, but MI is quite a different situation, could create a whole new flack about rules. There are many, myself among them that feel they deliberately did that, the Fl party leaders, not the people, which makes it even more convaluted. I'm a Foridian so i know first hand how tenuous this is.
You make a very good point about the disengenuous & dismissive time point.
March 30, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
This even more important if you consider the fact that in Texas, where people could vote twice, all votes were counted, while in FL/MI - none. So we have a situation that Clinton won the popular vote but Obama won the delegates.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Even if you count FL and MI (where Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot), Obama is ahead in the popular vote. It's a small lead, under 100,000, but he's still winning the popular vote even then.
If either of them wins, it has to be done by counting all votes and then letting the superdelegates get one of them to the "magic" number 2,024.
And that only works for Hillary if the super-dels can be convinced to overrule the pledged dels, in spite of the damage that would do to the party. Hillary supporters pretend that in scenarios in which Obama is ahead in pledged delegates, Obama is still doing well in the polls, Obama is still way ahead in fundraising, and Obama still has better "favorable" ratings than Hillary (who is currently at a seven-year low and close to a fourteen-year low), the super-dels could overrule the pledged dels and Obama supporters would just shrug and say "oh, well, you win some you lose some." It's a delusional argument.
Hillary needs some sort of major catastrophe to hit the Obama campaign in order to have any chance at all. And let me point out that in those sorts of circumstances, it's also possible that the pledged dels and super-dels would converge on Edwards or Gore, i.e., they'd pick a candidate who could unite the party. Hillary is a viable candidate in the same sense that Edwards or Gore are viable candidates, and the scenarios that could possibly work for Hillary, scenarios in which there are deep rifts in the party, may actually give someone like Gore or Edwards who might unify the party a better chance than Hillary.
March 30, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama leads in popular vote with MI/FL included, this is all the more reason for him to count them.
And both of them WILL need superdelegates.
Neither can win without them. That's why this is called a close race. Either you win the nomination by getting the required number of pledged delegates (which none of them will) or by total delegates (where the superdelegates come into play).
The nomination is not decided by whoever has more delegates or leads in delegates. It's decided by whoever reaches the required number of delegates.
March 30, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo,
Of course you are right, but the problem is that many of the super delegates including ones that have been supporting Clinton have said that they don't like the idea of the super delegates voting for someone other than the one with the popular vote and pledge delegate leads.
It's not that it can't happen, it's just that it is increasingly unlikely.
March 31, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
As understand it this issue is out of the candidates hands now - it will get decided by the Credentials Committee at the convention.
The DNC had pushed them to make a deal on MI and FL. Rumour had it that the Obama team was open to a proportional deal to seat the delegates however, the Clinton camp wouldn't take anything less than seating the delegates "as is" or a full revote. Seating them "as is" was a nonstarter since Obama wasn't on the MI ballot and they both signed an agreement not to pursue the delegates. A revote was always unlikely and predictably went down in flames.
The Clinton camp doesn't want this issue resolved since it's part of their justification for continuing the campaign in the hopes that some unforseen Obama implosion will materialize between now and convention.
March 31, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your argument is honorable, I think, but the timing for it is not so good. MI and FL will be the last issues on the table.
Obama's concentrating now on the primaries coming up and can't afford another huge media distraction from his message to voters in PA, NC and Indiana. Should this MI/FL idea be brought up now, all kinds of hoopla would ensue, including heated arguments from Obama supporters in both states that THEY never went to the polls because he wasn't campaigning there (or even on the ballot in MI) and that THEY were disenfranchised! Oy, the complaints, the complications - much less the rule-breaking issue - are numerous....
I'm sure, though, Obama and Clinton can deal with all this once the remaining states are done voting. It doesn't look like a re-vote's in the works, but we'll see who's in a better position by then to negotiate any MI/FL delegate splits.
March 30, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not too into this idea. Don't think it will affect the race in PA or IN in any significant way. He should keep every edge he currently enjoys until she is absolutely defeated, as in not campaigning for herself anymore. Giving in serves to close the popular vote gap and improves the delegate math for her.
He's in the lead, no need for risky moves. I wouldn't want him guessing at scenarios in which acting magnanimous could help him out, and have none of those scenarios pan out. He shoud just keep on keeping and wait for her to run out of money and support.
March 30, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Allsberg...I agree with you and have advocated this approach on another site I frequent. I'm a Clinton supporter but think this would be a wise thing to do on Obama's part. It resolves two major problems and he still keeps the lead. But if he was going to do it, I doubt he'd do it before PA.
March 30, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a relatively fair resolution in MI, I'd be willing (as a Hillary supporter) to assign the "uncommitted" delegates to Obama. Uncommitted got 44 percent of the vote, IIRC, and part of that must have been an Edwards vote, so if anything it slightly overstates Obama's MI support.
But Obama will never agree to anything that enfranchises MI and FL voters, retrospectively or prospectively, because those are both big Hillary states, and seating delegations that reflect their voter sentiment blows a huge hole in Obama's sacrosanct pledged-delegate lead.
Look at Demosaur's concise post upthread - FL alone gives Hillary a net pickup of 42 delegates, plus whatever MI would net, even alloting the uncommitteds to Obama. Obama can't risk any gesture that might well leave him at the end of the primaries with a razor thin pledged delegate lead, and clearly trailing in the total popular vote.
March 30, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please provide evidence that MI is a big Hillary state. They were polling evenly there last I saw and, if they are close to even prior to any campaigning, you can bet he would beat her. Same logic applies to FL where, if he had campaigned, you could count on the spread having been much closer. That's why it's so BS to claim that it is somehow fair to seat these two states as is, even if he gets the MI uncommitted voters.
What's fair is to abide by the rules established prior to the contest, instead of trying to change those rules mid-stream when doing so advantages your side.
March 30, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only way he should do this is IF he has the superdelegates in the bag, and some guarantee of their support. Which is to say, the day AFTER he announces this "brilliant, valiant and magnanimous" plan, the superdelegates announce their support for him.
Of course, the easier way is for the requisite numbers of supers he needs just go ahead and endorse him now rather than waiting until all of these bogus "deadlines" -- August, July June -- come and go, and she slogs on.
March 30, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a bad idea. Sorry. He gets absolutely zero benefit from the inclusion of Michigan. Seriously. Why give her a landslide of pupular votes and delegates? I have no problem with Hillary winning Michigan, but do people really think that he wouldn't have gotten a single vote or delegate out of the deal? I say offer her a 53/47% delegate split in Florida (w/no popular votes added to the tally) and split Michigan 50/50 (w/no popular votes added to the tally).
March 30, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The whole point here would be to give Clinton a freebie, kind of like saying "I can beat you with one hand tied behind my back." Plus, the uncommitted delegates from Michigan would be seated, just like the Clinton delegates, and it's probable that the vast majority of those delegates would support Obama.
The big advantage of this plan is not about delegate count. It's about perception.
March 30, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Under these circumstances, any plan that is designed to affect perception--particularly when awarding your oppoenent free delegates and popular votes--must keep in mind the delegate totals. You cannot split them.
March 30, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen Clinton says that those who voted uncomited were voting for him so why should he not get those votes and delegates?
March 31, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Adam Smith on the St. Pete Times political blog: "The Hillary Clinton campaign has yet to express any interest in negotiating a solution to Florida's delegate mess, but a couple key Barack Obama staffers - delegate operations director Jeff Berman and political director Matt Nugen - called state Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman to talk about possible ways to give Florida a voice in the nomination. 'We're just looking for solutions,' said Obama spokesman Bill Burton."
March 30, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree they should be seated as is. Good post.
March 30, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
as a chess player your premise is wrong so to your whole argument.
in chess and in life you dont sacrifice your queen and then hope for the best.
its done only because it works.
March 30, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
They won't do it before PA primary. Issue of perceived momentum when the media dissect the PA results assuming Hillary wins (likely). It has to be done after a recent loss or tie. I would expect this after NC and Indiana primary at the earliest. I suspect the DNC will not settle this until after all other states/territories have voted and then it won't make a difference.
FL/MI will be seated eventually.
The FL/MI narrative only serves to draw this whole mess out further which is what she wants. I think they would use this gesture to augment their "superior" state argument straight thru until Denver.
This gesture is like giving your hand to someone who is sinking in quicksand. Sure, its noble but not very smart. They're just going to pull you in and drag you down. Better to extend a stick/rope in this case the DNC. Let them finally settle it.
March 31, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The FL/MI narrative only serves to draw this whole mess out further which is what she wants. I think they would use this gesture to augment their "superior" state argument straight thru until Denver."
Yep.
Bad idea.
March 31, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no, NO. Obama should NOT do this - it will only embolden Hillary and her supporters. They will *never* accept this graciously or gratefully, and will make a stink out of how he'd tried to held off what is RIGHTFULLY hers until he couldn't. They will also start crowing about how much CLOSER the race really is, and she should fight harder for the Supers to throw their weight behind her. This is one of the worst things Obama can do strategically, Hillary is clutching at straws and you're about to extend her a whole yardstick. Do you think she'll be grateful to Obama for saving her from drowning? She'll push him right into the shark-infested water.
March 31, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The rules of the Democratic Convention are already set up to deal with situations like this. Why not just let them do their job? Obama is not in charge of determining who the Florida and Michigan delegates are. That is a job for the state parties there. If they are too incompetent to do that job, the voters in those states need to vote their state central committee members out of that office.
I can understand the desire for Senator Clinton to win by any means possible, but this is not a workable way to do so. A workable way would be for each of those states central committee to select a slate of delegates using whatever method they prefer, then let the convention decide how to handle it from that point on.
March 31, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't stress this enough, do not even speak of this. It is suicidal for Obama. He doesn't need to "look good" to his supporters, and none of the on-the-fence Dems care about this issue - they care more about the economy, race, Iraq, healthcare, etc. Only Hillary and her die-hards are hammering on about this, and that is because they see an opportunity for Hillary to fight on another front. They will NEVER play fair with Obama, they won't even vote for him against McCain, can't you even see it in the polls and on the web? Don't concede the Queen, don't concede anything now, the other side is not going to show mercy. She'll swoop in for the kill. Obama will look incredibly naive and stupid, and he will be if he makes such a blunder.
March 31, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you think Obama is so fragile? He can win the nomination in grace and style, as opposed to simply running out the clock. Both are victories, but grace and style carry more weight for the general election, which will be the true victory.
March 31, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought this blog post had sunk to the TPM oblivion it so richly deserved hours ago.
March 31, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Hillary supporters racheting up the votes. :) You have a generous disposition Allsburg, but *never* fight Hillary with one arm tied behind your back! It won't stop her from throwing the entire contents of the knife rack at you.
March 31, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Qwerty
I totally agree with your posts. This offer is nothing but a TROJAN HORSE.
Hillary does not play fair nor fight fair. This concession on Obama's part will only make her protests more vehement and more adamant.
What folks keep forgetting is that the votes of the SD's are fluid. They can change at anytime. The individuals who are not elected politicians have not at any time budged from their support for Hillary. These party regulars and chairs owe their political status to the Clintons and they are being steadfast and sticking in the Hillary camp. Ickes is an even bigger snake than Hillary as he voted for the rules that stripped MI/FL of their delegates and now he is working to undo the very rules he set up. That alone tells you he is a doubledealing weasel. Ickes is in charge of ensuring Hillary wins the right number of superdelegates and he is a force to be reckoned with. He makes Hillary look like a wuss when it comes to tenacity.
Read this:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-ickes31mar31,0,918692.story
Hillary has a whisper campaign going on that Obama cannot win because he is black. That meme holds up due to the racism that exists in our culture there are many who buy into it and for Obama to give even an inch to Hillary will mean she will be able to gain at least 5 miles from it. Hillary is saying that the Dems can dump the black constiuency and replace it with the brown constituency and she will win the general. This is all about race.
You are right Qwerty.
no
No
NO
just say no.
March 31, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is probably much more productive to NOT fall into a false "partisan" type argument amongst Democrats. Rather than gaming MI and FL out from a Democratic perspective, why not look at what best serves Republican party interests --and do the opposite...
(Just spitballin')
March 31, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure Republicans would love for the Democratic presidential nominee to have alienated a large chunk of the Democratic base in Michigan and Florida.
So, Obama should not alienate them.
March 31, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the kind of grand, idealistic peacemaking gestures we can all get behind the magnanimous spirit of that has absolutely no place in a political campaign.
March 31, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
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