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North Carolina: Democratic leadership lining up behind Obama
The campaigns are coming to North Carolina soon and I'm hoping to give TPM readers some flavor of what's happening down here prior to our May 6th primary. We also have a hotly contested race for the Democratic nomination for Governor, pitting two very moderate Democrats against each other: the Lt. Governor Bev Perdue (who leads in polling) and the State Treasurer Richard Moore.
While these two are not superdelegates, here is a strong sign of the belief that Obama will win North Carolina on May 6th:
The Democratic candidates for governor are scrambling to get close to Barack Obama.
Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue's campaign put out the word late Wednesday that she has endorsed Obama in the Democratic race for president.
Mac McCorkle, an adviser to Perdue's campaign, said she decided to endorse now that North Carolina has become a battleground state.
"She thinks both candidates are exceptionally well-qualified but will be voting for Obama," he said.
Meanwhile, state Treasurer Richard Moore said Thursday that he had lunch with Obama and his wife, Michelle, on July 28, 2004 -- the day after Obama gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention that gave rise to his national political career.
"That is something I will never forget," Moore told reporters. "They were both on cloud nine."
Moore had earlier announced his endorsement of Obama.
What's been interesting of late is that each campaign has been mirroring the other. A month ago Moore came out against a hotly contested coal fired power plant that's been proposed in North Carolina and just hours later Perdue did the same. Moore was first to endorse Obama and within 24-48 hours Perdue had endorsed Obama as well.
These are two very moderate white Democrats but like in other red states, it's obvious that Obama will have long coat-tails here. Democrats have been able to control both chambers of the legislature and the Governor's mansion for years and years, but the margin in the state House is razor thin. Many state Democrats are talking about the down ticket effect if Clinton is the nominee and the possibility of the GOP taking over one chamber at least.
A couple of other things to watch for before the May 6th primary:
- will John Edwards feel renewed pressue to issue an endorsement since the campaigns will be coming to his home state? I imagine so.
- Rep. Mel Watt had been an Edwards supporter and recently said that he will make an endorsement before the primary. Expect Obama to pick up this superdelegate and respected leader of the Legislative Black Caucus.
- I don't know about other SD endorsements except most of those who haven't yet endorsed are people who don't like to ever rock the boat and who don't like to do anything controversial, so I'd expect them to just stay out of the endorsement game at least through May.
I'm happy to answer any questions people have about North Carolina - just post in the comments section.
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Comments (25)
I've had it with Edwards. The reports are distasteful, that he's shopping himself out to the highest bidder. From centrist, to populist and now to God knows what -- I've lost respect for him, and I was an Edwards supporter for a long time. I'm expecting him to endorse Hillary (reports are she's bribed him handily), about the "better healthcare plan". But that's a ruse. Because after the two years' worth of emails I received from the Edwards', that he would support her is a betrayal of whatever principles he claims to have had.
The vast majority of Edwards supporters have gone to Obama already. How important is his endorsement in North Carolina anyway? I'm not being snarky -- I'm actually asking about his influence over the party there.
March 19, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I became an Obama supporter once Edwards was out of the race. Before that, I really couldn't choose between the two. Obama has done a great job getting name recognition, and in fact - a great job getting people "used" to his name.
Some questions:
What nasty curveball will the Clintons throw at Obama right before NC starts voting?
Will "dittoheads" go to the trouble to change their registration far enough ahead so that they can mess with our primary?
Will our media be friendly towards Obama?
What is Mel Watt waiting for?
How can we get better connected with the Obama campaign and news?
Are you part of the campaign effort in NC?
Thank you very much for posting this, and will you post more?
March 19, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to get better connected on the campaign in NC, I'd go to Obama'a website and create a profile and then join a group such as "NC for Obama" or "Charlotte for Obama." If there's not one near you (there should be) then create your own. Then I'd look at the opportunities to join events in your area - lots of volunteering and activities across the state. Also, I'd recommend joining the Obama meetup groups in NC.
Mel Watt is probably waiting to make a big splash with the campaign. The Obama campaign could get a great media hit. Hell - it might happen today since Obama will be in Charlotte. I know that Watt had been saying that he wanted to hear who Edwards endorsed because he wanted to back the same candidate.
I think Edwards would influence a small group of undecided voters. Otherwise, everythign I've read and heard says that his supporters, staff, and donors have moved to back Obama. It would be shocking if he supported Hillary given all that. But don't get too hasty, he (and Bill Richardson) could still play an important role when it is time for party leaderers and SDs to end this race. I have this dream that at some point John Edwards and Bill Richardson will hold a joint press conference and say that for the good of the party it is time to get behind the candidate who Obviously has won the support of the people.
March 19, 2008 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Edwards comes out and does not endorse Obama he certainly is not the man his supporters once believed him to be.
In October of 2007, Edwards laid out what he called the "moral test of our generation":
Senator Clinton's road to the middle class takes a major detour right through the deep canyon of corporate lobbyists and the hidden bidding of K Street in Washington -- and history tells us that when that bus stops there it is the middle class that loses.
When I asked Hillary Clinton to join me in not taking money from Washington lobbyists -- she refused. Not only did she say that she would continue to take their money, she defended them.
Today Hillary Clinton has taken more money from Washington lobbyists than any candidate from either party -- more money than any Republican candidate.
She has taken more money from the defense industry than any other candidate from either party as well.
She took more money from Wall Street last quarter than Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Barack Obama combined.
The long slow slide of our democracy into the corporate abyss continues unabated regardless of party, regardless of the best interests of America.
We have a duty -- a duty to end this.
March 19, 2008 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
katjam, thanks for locating that quote. I supported Edwards for exactly that reason. I sent the quote to the Edwards08 site and urged him to support Obama:
http://www.johnedwards.com/about/contact/form/
March 19, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only one of NC's 7 Reps has endorsed so far (G.K. Butterfield), and he came out for Obama long ago. Actually, I should rephrase that. Six of NC's Reps endorsed Edwards, but have not declared new allegiances since he left the race. Neither has the current governor, Mike Easley, nor the extremely popular former governor (while not a current superdelegate, Jim Hunt is the only NC gov ever to have served 4 terms, so his voiced support is more meaningful than a single anonymous convention vote might be). That's a lot of endorsements/potential delegates up for grabs (there are also a couple of DNC superdelegates from NC who haven't pledged yet, and a few who've already gone to Obama).
In addition to the Governor's race, we also have an interesting primary race for the Senate candidacy to take on Liddy Dole in the fall. Jim Neal has gotten the endorsements of several netroots and progressive groups, including Act Blue, while Kay Hagan has the support of the old school party faithful in the state. Neal has repeatedly referenced Obama as a role model for his campaign - and I believe he stands a much better chance of being elected on a ticket with Obama.
It's a very mixed "blessing" to have so much attention paid to the presidential primaries this year. Record turnout is wonderful as a general indicator of increased interest in the political process. At the same time, people don't seem to pay the same amount of attention (or do the same level of research) about local races as they do national races, so the increased turnout doesn't necessarily help progressive candidates at the state or local level.
While it will hopefully help Dems in the fall, huge turnout tends to play to incumbents' advantage in the primaries (with notable exceptions like Donna Edwards). I'm glad that I have really good incumbents in my state and federal districts - but I wouldn't necessarily say that of the state as a whole.
March 19, 2008 3:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks all who have posted here and for your questions and insight.
Libelian, I am frankly disturbed how bad a campaign Hagan is running. I wouldn't have given Neal a chance in this race because he has only lived in NC for a couple of years and I'd never heard of him before he started his campaign. But he's running his campaign the right way where Hagan is doing the opposite. Someone has advised her or she has decided that she has to appear as similar to Dole as possible. (the classic professional consultant advice). As Obama is showing, you can have a liberal platform but you just need to ahve an effective message that connects that platform to a broad array of people. (this is organizing 101).
March 19, 2008 7:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
What is up with Hagan? People told me noone would even think of stepping in the race after it was 'decided" he would be running, quite frankly a couple of people actually changed the office they were running for, apparently believing he had it wrapped up. But the only contact I've had with any of the candidates has been Neal, two or three pieces of mail already. Is Hagan that certian of his victory or is he just a slow starter?
PS I'm very happy to see a few NC Dems respresented here on TPM!
March 19, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
FYI: Kay Hagan is a woman (so clearly she's not doing a great job of reaching out to voters yet).
Like I said above, Hagan is running a horrible campaign so far and on top of that just weird. Her campaign director was asked at an event who she was and she just responded coldly that "I don't go on the record." Ummm, they asked for your name.
She seems totally unprepared for this campaign and it may be that her heart is not in it (she had initally opted not to run, then at the last minute the DNC convinced her to do it).
March 19, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL...then it's worse than I thought! And I actually try to pay attention. It may be that I was thinking of someone else who just didn't run at all. I swear the conversation involved someone saying they couldn't understand why a candidate was even thinking of running when the NC Dems were backing someone else...who I thought was a man...I could be wrong.
I was aware they were having trouble finding anyone to run against Liddy, which is strange...she has been a terribly ineffective Senator.
March 19, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, Jim Neal has lived in NC for more than "a couple of years." Neal was born and raised in Greensboro, graduated high school in Greensboro and graduated UNC. He earned a masters in business from the University of Chicago and worked as an investment banker on Wall Street for a few years before moving back to NC where he started a business and has lived for several years - with one of the two sons he raised as a single parent.
(Hagan on the other hand was raised in Florida, a member of the Chiles political clan.)
Despite, or perhaps because of, his up close and personal view of Wall Street culture, Neal firmly embraces populist economics. Hagan is closely allied with the inside interests she does business with on the state senate appropriations committee and whom she taps for campaign $$s.
March 19, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
In October of 2007 Edwards roundly chastised Hillary for being the most beholden of all the candidates to corporate lobbyist. He said he asked her to join him and refuse their money but she would not. He said this sell out has got to end. Were he to come out for her now as the rumors have it it would be a complete betrayal of his principles.
March 19, 2008 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
NC Democrats are smart enough to select the best person for POTUS 2008 and that person will be Barack Obama.
I'm undecided in the Governor's race, but Moore and Perdue appears to be 2 good choices.
March 19, 2008 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would think NC is a perfect state for Obama. There is a large percentage of African-Americans, and there are also a large number of young, well-educated potential voters, especially in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Research Triangle. This is just the kind of state that Democrats might have their first good chance in a long time, with Obama on the ticket, don't you think?
March 19, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is the kind of state that could be turned blue in a general as the state grows from Northern transplants and yet continues to have a strong AA base. I think if Obama is the nominee that Virginia and NC will both be in play, if the campaign contests the states and puts paid organizers on the ground. To win, GOP turnout would have to be down (quite possible) and AA and youth turnout would have to be historic (also possible). It wouldn't be an easy proposition.
March 19, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, most of the northern transplants moving to North Carolina are rich, white, conservatives. These northerners voted overwhelmingly for Jessee Helms in his last two campaigns.
March 20, 2008 6:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am just bummed that Obama isn't swinging through Raleigh this time around. I REALLY want to take my daughters to hear him live.
Despite Jesse Helms (constituent service kept him in the Senate), NC really isn't a racist Deep South state. Education levels are high, and the man who came closest to beating Helms was black (Harvey Gantt).
I can't decide between Moore and Perdue, either - but right now, Bev is running a stronger campaign.
Easley generally doesn't get involved in politics (strange, but true), so I'm not really surprised he's stayed quiet.
March 19, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
If only HRC had the same loyalty to the country and the Party as do Perdue & Moore....
Two of my best friends in the whole wide world are retired UNC-Greensboro professors. They report that among their Republican friends there is much interest in Obama and no interest in HRC. Again, I think we are seeing the kind of support Obama garners from independents and moderate Republicans. My friend, Helen, seems to think her Republican friends like Obama's ability to be forceful without being nasty; that they are fed up the nastiness on both sides of the aisle. In addition, Helen says these friends do not like McCain -- not for the reasons the right wing doesn't like him but, rather, because he is seen as someone living in the past.
My take on all of this is that 2008 is not only a "change" election but a strong "rejection of the past" election.... or simply, an embrace of a brilliant, new, young candidate and a rejection of brilliant, old candidates.
March 19, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I would think NC is a perfect state for Obama. There is a large percentage of African-Americans, and there are also a large number of young, well-educated potential voters, especially in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Research Triangle."
So, these are two separate groups?
March 19, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure there is overlap, but it seems silly to assume all the educated people in the triangle are black. Nice try though.
March 19, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, Jim Neal has lived in NC for more than "a couple of years." Neal was born and raised in Greensboro, graduated high school in Greensboro and graduated UNC. He earned a masters in business from the University of Chicago and worked as an investment banker on Wall Street for a few years before moving back to NC where he started a business and has lived for several years - with one of the two sons he raised as a single parent.
(Hagan on the other hand was raised in Florida, a member of the Chiles political clan.)
Despite, or perhaps because of, his up close and personal view of Wall Street culture, Neal firmly embraces populist economics. Hagan is closely allied with the inside interests she does business with on the state senate appropriations committee and whom she taps for campaign $$s.
March 19, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at the Gallup poll today, it appears Hillary and Barack are in statistical dead-heat North Carolina. I have no idea what Edwards will do, but my assumption has been tht he would endorse Obama. I think any claims that Hillary "bribed" him are just nonsense and conspiracy theories that crop up around candidates. Hopefully Edwards will put any personal feelings aside and vote for the candidate that he really believes can win in November. That's what I would do if I were him.
March 19, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post, urbinato, and its nice to read the comments of other TPM aficianados.
I agree that Sen. Obama could do very well here. Southern Illinois is every bit as red as most of NC and he made inroads in rural areas there that could be duplicated here. Furthermore, NC similar metropolitan areas to Illinois generally, Chicago excepted of course. And the experience with Harvey Gantt makes his doing well more plausible. I, too, know some republicans here who are giving him a look--HRC would not ever be a consideration.
I'm having difficulty getting excited about the statewide races--seems more of the same. The Dems control the mansion and the legislature, yet it's strictly DLC-style with no progressive legislation for the poor and working class. Perdue and Moore are no more exciting than the ever-bland Easley, who accomplished so little it makes one wonder what was his point if not governing? Orr's a libertarian who made some progressive rulings while on the Supremes, but we'll probably reduce our already abysmally low taxes should he manage to catch fire.
State Senator Kay Hagan is a decent, if unexciting pol, but her campaign--calling it such is a stretch--is in complete dissarray. They had trouble finding someone to take on the woefully deficient Liddy, who wins 'cause she gets the home cookin' vote. But a loss with a good campaign now sets the table nicely for someone to take on Burr in two years. Doesn't it.
I've only been here (the Triangle) since '97, and although I supported John Edwards against Faircloth, can anybody tell me with a straight face that he could get elected to anything here? (OK, maybe to the board of the trial lawyers.) I feel so sorry for all those people around the country who bought into his millworker's son schtick. I could never get myself to believe it, and his stint at the UNC Poverty Center changed no one's mind over there either. He was classic form over substance with a dash of expediency. I don't think an endorsement from him will make a dime's worth of difference in May.
Sure like to from y'all about any progressive Tar Heel candidates we might could support. (I love that phrase...)
March 19, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm very worried about NC. But maybe that's just because of what I see in my mostly-rural, socially conservative, snake-handling county. I hope those counties that have indoor plumbing will overwhelmingly cancel-out our Hillary-votes.
March 19, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like NC could be a great home state for an authentic, progressive Dem who could forge the same alliance between the African-American community and the more liberal RTP segment.
Any candidate who could appeal to moderate whites and the other two segments could write his ticket nationally, too.
Now, what are you going to do about Heath Shuler?
March 19, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
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