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No evidence for Michigan backlash against Obama

So Rasumussen has McCain ahead of Obama by only 1 pt, but ahead of
Clinton by 3.  I know, I know... polls this far out tell us
nothing.  Agreed.  No argument there.  Still, given the
number of Clinton supporters who have solemnly informed us that Obama
has so alienated the voters of Michigan by obstructing a re-vote that
he will surely lose there in the fall, does it not seem a mite odd that
this burning caldron of rage against Obama does not show up in any
discernable fashion in the polls?



With this is mind, could we please refrain from the histrionic
prophesies of disaster in Michigan until we see actual evidence to
support these woebegone prognostications?


Comments (28)

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But Greg, Hillary supporters don't read polls. I mean, if we all read polls, then we might actually have to believe Obama is up 10 points, turning Texas into a swing state, and is running an almost equal shot of beating McCain in all the "big" states that Clinton supporters keep toutin. But we don't believe that. Therefore the polls must be wrong.

Didn't you know?

Greg you are correct. Once the nomination is sewn up the candidate will have time to mend fence and allow disappointment from the losing camp to subside. I doubt Democrats will allow that disappointment to get in the way of taking back the White House. How many Dems are going to allow 6 months of internecine hissy fits get in the way of rolling back 8 years of this disastrous administration? Very few, and those people were never going to vote for Obama or Clinton anyway.

The problem we have now (and a good one, indeed) is that most of us realize that whoever the Democratic nominee is, will probably be the President. That is what make the stakes so high. The real question is who has the longest coattails and who will bring more new voters into the party? As an Obama supporter it is my opinion that he will.

I was a-wishin' and a-hopin' for revotes in both FL and GA, whether by primary or by caucus. I think he might win MI by a hair and come within a few points of Clinton in FL. Obama's pattern is to start to overcome low poll numbers as soon as he starts to campaign. Even when he loses it's by a far smaller margin than the pre-campaign numbers indicate.

The only bad result would be seating Clinton's delegates in both states as selected in their illegal primaries. As much as I distrust the party-machine superdelegates, it's hard to believe that the credentials committee can get away with that unless Obama has some unimaginable meltdown between now and the election. Frankly, at this point it looks like Clinton who's crumbling; the more she says the sillier she looks.

FL and GA? Why Georgia? If this is a joke, I am afraid that I am too slow on the uptake to catch it. At the risk of ruining it, could you explain.

FYI, I'm counting down until you get flooded with HRC supporters chastising you for your use of the word "histrionic" as blatantly misogynist and another reason why they will support John McCain in the general election, even though he doesn't actually represent their interests...

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Yes, the appropriate term is "herstrionic".

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Greg you live in Michigan?

Not anymore, why do you ask? I moved back to the Show-Me state from the Great Lake state in 2005 when my late mother was diagnosed with advanced stage uterine cancer. My wife and I loved living in Ann Arbor and we would move back in a heart-beat if I could find a job there, but no, I do not live there now.

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Just wondered

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too bad you can't come back. I will drink to your health next time I stop by Connor O'Neil's

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If Michigan has anything to be seriously worried about it is the loss of the battle to recruit Terrelle Pryor (QB) who just committed to THE Ohio State University. Looks like they'll keep kicking your butt EVERY YEAR.

That said, I think you're absolutely right about the lack of a backlash. The nominee has usually been selected way before the folks in Michigan or Florida got to vote in years past. Were they disenfranchised then?

There is a small faction of the pro-Hilary camp that will advance any hogwash in order to deny reality.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpFOQXujcZo

Oh yeah.... GO BUCKS!!!

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Flooded? Not enough of us to make a flood here unless we all pee at the same time.

if you are looking for details on the ground, i live in michigan and i can tell you ...
well, actually, i spend way too much time at TPM and at work, and i'm a mushroom there.
so, i can tell you there are no demonstration in the street, and i don't know anyone personally whose blood is boiling over the MI primary. But maybe there is some of that and i have missed it.

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If Obama is the nominee, I don't see any reason to think that there will be any backlash by Democratic voters against the party in November.

If any of voters in Michigan should be upset about being disenfranchised, it's Obama supporters, since their candidate wasn't even on the ballot.

At the risk of falling into the trap of racial oversimplification, does anybody really think that Detroit's large African-American community, which is the backbone of the Democratic party in the state, is going to stay away from the polls in November, thus forfeiting the opportunity to cast ballots for an African-American presidential candidate, just because the DNC refused to seat the Michigan delegation at the convention in August? I somehow doubt this.

Now if Senator Clinton somehow wins the nomination in a way that does not involve Michigan's delegation being seated (which, yes, is a virtual impossibility, but we'll let that go for a second), I could see there being some anti-Democratic backlash in the general, but I think even that is a bit overstated. At the end of the day, the state party leaders will have their noses out of joint, but by November I just can't see Michigan voters carrying that kind of a grudge to the polls with them.

The backlash argument never made a lot of sense. "Hey, they didn't count my vote in the Democratic primary and I care so much about having my party count my vote that I am going to... vote for a Republican?"

Doesn't hold water.

This is still a complete travesty. None of us should support Florida and Michigan's voters being treated this way. But we should respect that they're smart enough not to vote for Old Man McCain just because they're pissed.

Not that you have been laying awake at night wondering "what does Greg DeLassus think?" but I agree with you wholeheartedly, dear Destor. I want Florida and Michigan to get to vote because it is right that the democrats there should get to have their democratic say just like the democrats everywhere else. It is right.

Another Michigan resident here. While it's solely anecdotal, I can assure you that not a single Democrat I've met or know attributes the primary screw-up to Obama. I, for one, didn't even bother to show up to vote (!) knowing full well that (a) my candidate of choice wasn't on the ballot and (b) everyone and anyone affiliated with the party [at that time] assured all of us that our votes wouldn't count and our delegates wouldn't be seated as a result of the state party's short-sighted decision to buck the rules. Clinton's faux concern for my enfranchisement seems to be striking most Michiganders (again, anecdotally) as the hot air it really is. If she gave a damn about us, then maybe she should've spoken up when, you know, it was an actual issue. Instead, she showed her true colors (yet again) by leaving her name on the ballot whilst claiming for all to hear that Michigan's primary was essentially meaningless. Meaningless, that is, until she realized her chances at winning the nomination were tanked by an ineffectual primary campaign driven by paid political hacks posing as "advisors." If she cares so much about the democratic process, then how in the world do you explain away her campaign's efforts to thwart the caucus process (see, e.g., Nevada and Texas for starters?). This woman is a sham and a shell and the Michianders I know have seen through her since "Day One."

If anything, the members of my (again, admittedly anecdotal and limited) social circle see through this nonsense for what it is: a crass and clumsy-handed attempt to rewrite the rules midgame to her advantage now that her "take everything on Super Tuesday" gameplan blew up in her face. Our governor (Jennifer Granholm) is a Clinton supporter and if anything the coverage of this situation locally has tended to underscore the fact that Clinton's latest machinations have everything to do with rewarding her for her fealty (there's talk of a quid pro quo for a cabinet-level position, likely Sec of Ed) and nothing to do with concern for the voting rights of us Michiganders. Again, if Clinton gave a shit of enfranchisement, then she should've taken her name off the ballot like the credible candidates (i.e., Edwards and Obama) did when apprised of the situation.

That said, none of this freaking matters because even if Clinton's political machine manages to massage a favorable settlement out of the political insiders (here and/or in Florida) then it'll simply be one more nail in the political coffin of the "inevitable" appointed one.

I feel so proud finally to have made it into the recommended category. It was bound to happen if I wrote enough of these posts, finally one of them would hit.

Wait a sec. Are you suggesting that there's evidence that one of the Clinton campaign's talking points isn't true??

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That's a good point. But why should it? It was not Obama's campaign that killed the revote in Michigan, no matter what the Bullet-Dodger campaign says.

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The supposed backlash is a media creature and threats from Clinton supporters. No one in Michigan actually cares because they always knew their votes wouldn't count. Rasmussen showing McCain +1 is a good thing. If even half of Hillary supporters who said they would vote McCain come back to the Dem camp, then it'll be a 4 pt swing in the polls.

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There would be no reason for a Michigan backlash, because Obama hasn't done anything to stop revotes in Florida or Michigan, indeed according to the Huffington Post just a few days ago OBAMA is the one trying to make something happen in Florida, and he has absolutely no reason to fight a revote in Michigan because A) polls show he would probably win, and B) getting the revote out of the way would deprive Hillary of a reason to complain and keep false hope.

His campaign raised a few very important and very correct concerns about making sure every voter can vote, and vote securely. That DOES NOT equal trying to derail the process, any revote would have to address these issues, he is just smart enough to be raising them. Plus, it wasn't him that made the court in Michigan rule their primary law unconstitutional. Time and budget constraints, and problems between the DNC and the state officials and legislators is the real problem. Blaming Obama is just a dirty tactic from the Clintons, and I'm sad that so many people are internalizing that bullshit.

I can't see a serious backlash happening in Michigan. 40% went out of their way to vote anybody but Hillary in January weather. That's motivation...

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As the title of this article implies, there is a reason for a backlash against Obama in Michigan, i.e., because he very much doesn't want the votes to be counted in a way that reflects Hillary's victory there, and he has blocked efforts for a re-vote. So no such backlash has materialized as it has in Florida? Ok, if you say so.

Well, not just me, dear Otto F. The poll respondants to Rasmussen's survey also say so, and their say-so counts for a darn site more than mine (or yours).

The backlash idea never made sense. Who would be concerned about the Michigan results being counted? Not Obama or Edwards supporters who bothered to vote uncommitted. Not the Democrats who stayed home. And not the Democrats who decided to create trouble in the Republican primary. The only people who really cared were Hillary supporters. (And the people who really bought into the whole disenfranchisement spiel are probably the exact same 28 percent of Hillary supporters who are saying they won’t vote for Obama in the general anyway.) Everyone else in the state had already been disenfranchised by the process.

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Disenfranchised? Try living in Indiana. We have been wandering that desert for forty years without much complaint. Not since we lit the fuse on Bobby Kennedy's campaign in '68 has this state's primary been relevant. Reform the process? Yes. Right now? No.

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Hillary did NOT WIN MICHIGAN for God's Sake. There was no credible candidate on the ballot competing against her.

You Cintonistas can spin ANYTHING!


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