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New research - something positive for both candidate wagons
Fewer Voters Identify as Republicans
Democrats now have the advantage in “swing” states
March 20, 2008
The balance of party identification in the American electorate
now favors the Democratic party by a decidedly larger margin
than in either of the two previous presidential election
cycles.
In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.
The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.
The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.
By comparison, in 2004 about equal numbers of independents leaned toward both parties. When “leaners” are combined with partisans, however, the Democratic Party now holds a 14-point advantage among voters nationwide (51% Dem/lean-Dem to 37% Rep/lean-Rep) up from a three-point advantage four years ago.
Despite these trends, the proportion of voters who identify with the Democratic Party outright has not increased in recent years. Currently, 36% say they think of themselves as a Democrat, virtually unchanged from 2004 (35%) and 2000 (35%). Instead, as the proportion of self-identified Republicans has decreased, the percentage of independents has grown substantially, from 32% in 2004 to 37% today.
More :
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans
Comments (2)
So the question stands, how can we on the left better frame the ideals? How to get folks to vote for their economic interests, appeal to the better angels of our nature and realize the altruism is self interest. How to overcome fear of the other and cultural backlash sentiment. We cannot win as hawks, and cannot win without a frame for our brand that fails to break the current meme.
March 23, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sort of gets at why I look at "coat tails" arguments about the presidential nominees with a shrug.
Plenty of people are going to be wavering between Obama or McCain or Clinton or McCain, but looks like they might be voting for Dems for other offices. McCain has a bipartisan rep., Obama has a bipartisan rep (which I think he would emphasize in the general and really downplay liberalism) and Hillary has conflicting images: conservative Dem to some, high negatives as a liberal to others. Even if Hillary was the nominee, those with a negative image of her that come out to vote against her might still be intending to vote for Dem for other offices!
I don't think there's going to be much of a "coat tails" factor in this election, swings are going to be voting on economy and "get out of Iraq," which means they might going for either McCain or Dem nominee for prez but rethink sending GOP to Congress.
Granted, Obama may have a get out the vote advantage of many left of center that normally don't come out to vote and then those would vote straight Dem ticket on other races. But at the same time, I don't think the end results will be that different for other races without those Obama voters, i.e., I don't think Hillary's negatives would drive swings voting against her away from voting for Dems for other offices, especially in the non-urban areas where they are important to turning races.
(Also, if McCain continues to say crazy confused stuff and stumbles on economy in debates and says ultra hawkish things in debates, unless there is another big terror attack, he will be toast with a lot of these people.)
March 23, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
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