« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
McCain's Edge Exaggerated?
We get a constant reminder every time we check Election Central and see the poll tracker at the top:
Head to head, McCain would beat Obama by a margin that's now outside the margin of error, and he'd beat Clinton by an even bigger margin.
But how does the current Democratic nomination process factor into those poll results?
We already know that 20% (or however many) of Obama supporters claim they'd rather vote for McCain than Hillary, and that about as many of her supporters say the same about Obama. But it seems that the conventional wisdom is that after the nominee is finally determined, those numbers will drop significantly as everyone gets over it and most voters who backed the losing candidate realize it will be best to vote for the prevailing Democrat, even if s/he wasn't their favorite.
So wouldn't it follow that when Hillary supporters or Obama supporters get those calls from the pollsters that, when asked about the candidate they aren't supporting, they're artificially skewing the results in a way that benefits McCain? That the same kind of kneejerk response that comes from being emotionally invested in their preferred candidate is impacting the McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs. Clinton polls?
I wouldn't be surprised to see whoever becomes the Democratic candidate take a pretty quick jump out ahead of McCain once the dust from the nomination process settles.





Comments (2)
If the news media ever decide to cover McCain with anywhere near the scrutiny given to the Democratic candidates McCain's edge will vanish like smoke. The only unknown is whether they will ever do that.
FoxNews never will, so most Republicans will vote for McCain - that shouldn't come as a surprise. CNN might give McCain at least a little scrutiny, which should bleed off quite a few of the "independent" voters from him. And, as you noted, Democrats will, in the end, vote for the Democratic Candidate - another non-surprise. So, the election will, as it always does, come down to whether the Democrats can win enough non-deep-south states to garner a majority of the electoral college votes. Predicting how that will work out isn't something I'm ready to try.
March 31, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was wondering the same thing last week, though I looked at it a bit differently. I just figured that not everyone who supports McCain actually realizes how ridiculous he's become in the last eight years, because most Americans are just starting to pay attention. They remember someone drastically different than the man who's campaigning today.
I figured my idea wasn't any good because the omni-present Greg DeLassus hijacked my thoughts in the comments and turned it into a Sinbad thread with Genghis and the other full-time TPM crowd...I never got much feed back.
March 31, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment