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It’s not news just because Matt Drudge calls it “breaking”.
We already have that poll!
They take the poll every day. Who would you vote for if McCain was against Obama (ie who would you vote for if Clinton lost?) Who would you vote for if McCain against Clinton (ie who would you vote for if Obama lost?). Guess what? They do the same. So at best, the new poll is essentially an internal poll that explains in all the recent polling that Obama loses 28% of Clinton’s voters and gains almost all of it back if he is the nominee. It’s basically the same the other way. Interestingly. You’ll notice that McCain doesn’t gain voters no matter who the nominee is. Come on people (esp. Josh Marshall) don’t fall into this stuff just because Drudge things it’s special.
Pres '08 Mar 25 Gallup McCain (R) 45%, Obama (D) 44%
Pres '08 Mar 25 Gallup McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 45%
Pres '08 Mar 24 Gallup McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
Pres '08 Mar 24 Gallup McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 45%
Pres '08 Mar 24 Rasmussen McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 41%
Pres '08 Mar 24 Rasmussen McCain (R) 49%, Clinton (D) 42%
Pres '08 Mar 23 Rasmussen McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%
Pres '08 Mar 23 Rasmussen McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 42%
Pres '08 Mar 22 Gallup McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Pres '08 Mar 22 Gallup McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 45%
Comments (1)
Actually, there's significant news here. It is important that the polling reflects the depth of the divisions laid bare by the Democratic race. It's just dangerous to use these polls as predictive tools - particularly because Gallup has already conceded that the sampling model it employs in these national tracking polls is, charitably, rather different in composition than the voters who actually vote in primaries.
So the important points here are threefold:
1) A significant chunk of those who support Obama or Clinton would - as of now - prefer McCain to the other Democrat.
2) Even with these high percentages of defectors, McCain is only running even with the Democrats. If these voters come home in November, he'll suffer a crushing defeat.
3) Gallup isn't bad at tracking national mood swings, but it's terrible at predicting how the national electorate will actually vote. Simply put, it blew it on Febuary 5, and has admitted as much. So as a measure of pique, this is useful. As a prognostication, not so much.
March 26, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
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