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If Clinton Is the Nominee, Political Realignment Will Occur

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Give the Clintons credit for sticking with a plan. On her quest for the White House, Hillary encountered an unexpected strong challenge from Barack Obama which threatened her plans of becoming the Democratic nominee.

To counter, after Obama's win in Iowa the Clintons proceeded to "blacken him up" to create a Black vs. White contest. It appeared to work in New Hampshire. The Clintons showing a lack of confidence in keeping their almost 50/50 Black voter support, activated their plan to get winning margins of White and Latino voters. The plan included a future recovery of a portion of Black support in the general election. More about that later.

Black voters initially gave the Clintons the benefit of doubt until Bill's race-baiting reference of Rev. Jesse Jackson after Obama's win in South Carolina. Given their past unwavering support of the Clintons, Black voters became disgusted with their behavior. To Black voters, the Clintons had earned a level of contempt once reserved for right-wingers like Jesse Helms.

Fast-forward to the present. The Clintons have officially activated their recovery phase of lost Black voter support. That's why we have Hillary, Bill and Ed Rendell dropping hints of Obama as the Clintons choice for VP to produce a win-win situation. The comments are correctly seen as attempts to marginalize Obama support in upcoming primaries. Some gullible media types hail the comments as Clinton good faith gestures.

But here's the Clinton reality. The Clintons know that if their unscrupulous campaign against Obama is successful, their only hope for victory in November is with Obama on the ticket as VP. A small price to pay for a victory. With Bill around, it won't matter who the VP is anyway. However, if Obama refuses the request, the exodus of Obama supporters to John McCain, especially Black voters, will be unprecedented. McCain will cruise to the White House and ruin a "perfect Clinton plan." Those poll numbers of Clinton vs. McCain will be meaningless.

It's not the type of real change that Obama envisions, but political alignments would change nonetheless. Too bad there won't be any governor contests in Pennsylvania and Ohio.


Comments (27)

This is one of the dumbest posts I've read on the site.

"Black voters initially gave the Clintons the benefit of doubt..."

Uh... What have black voters ever had to doubt about the Clintons?

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Do you actually read?

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I agree...this is one of the dumbest posts I've read on this site or on any of the sites I've posted at over the years.

Cheezuz...

everything

The stunning detachment from reality when making statements about "what is" in this posters world is almost up to the level of the Clinton Inner Circle. Sweeping pronouncements about Obama voters going to MCCain are ludicrous. Obama voters are for the most part better at detecting bullshit than the rest of the electorate, hence their support of Obama over Hillary. Further , they want to CHANGE things. MCCain is about a million miles from change and flings the neocon bullshit narrative about the world at all of us. HOW does that play into an Obama supporter's thought process?

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Mike, this is how it plays. Clinton has run a dishonorable campaign and she talks out of both sides of her mouth. One moment, Dr. Jekyll, the next moment Mrs. Hyde. I am one former Clinton supporter because of her do or say anything campaign style, now a current Obama supporter, because of his vision for America, that will not help Hillary benefit from her tactics.

You think that I am alone. Spin all you want, but if she wins you will get your reality in November.

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Maybe not McCain, but possibly no one.

I am a committed Democrat and will vote for the (D) nominee this Novemeber regardless.

But many of my friends are not. Some don't usually vote at all. They're educated and such, but they simply have never been engaged in party politics. They do want to CHANGE things, but to them, nothing about the electoral process or the usual suspects who run it seem to have anything to do with real change. Until now.

Think about it - from 2007 to the start of 2008, HRC was the strongest nominee D's could put forth, objectively speaking (big resources, decent resume, campaign experience for the fall, & minus Gore). And yet most people voted for someone else - that tells you many don't think HRC is an agent for change and renewal, regardless of their alternatives. It's a GOOD thing Obama came along to sweep the young, independent, and midwest votes that would've fallen by the wayside for years to come...

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i totally agree with this post, with the exception of black voters voting for McCain. If Hillary is the nominee, after voting for her husband twice in years past....i will not vote for president (leaving that option blank) or write in Obama. black folks are very good at reading white folks. we knew even when the clintons were in power that their support of our community was opportunistic....we just liked his style at the time...and what other choices did we have....i can name no concrete policy that benefitted black folks that bill clinton ever implemented...he was a republican light and the economy was good......
i have been shocked at her ruthlessness, duplicity and self serving playacting.....i could never, ever vote for her, even as a VP.

I know I am not alone, as an African-American in the way i feel. they have lost the "black" vote forever....it will never come back.

I'm white and I will not vote for HRC. I won't vote for McCain but, I will join my African-American brothers and sisters and stay home on election day.

This post is hard to take seriously. If you really are black and politically aware, I shouldn't have to refer you to Jesse Jackson's book, Keep Hope Alive, where he spells out how he ran against Ronald Reagan's conscious policy of destroying blacks and other poor people by making the Congress choose between defense and social programs. Jackson goes on to criticize Dukakis for never challenging Reagan/Bush directly on behalf of the poor and middle class. That task would fall to Bill Clinton, Jesse Jackson's true heir politically. Why do you think the Conservatives and wingnuts hate him so much? All polls that I've seen indicate that in spite of their overwhelming support for Obama, over 70% of black voters still like the Clintons.

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Billy, who fabricated, I mean conducted those polls, HRC and her surrogates? You are sadly mistaken. Since Hillary can't play fair, it's worth taking a lost, because she doesn't deserve to lead. She couldn't trust her ability to win in a fair fight. With her flipping and flopping more that John Kerry was falsely accused, how could you ever trust her to tell the truth?
She created this unnecessary turmoil and proved her critics to be right. She is a polarizing figure, but she had help, from Bill, Ed, Mark, Howard, and now Geraldine. I can honestly tell you that I liked her and she was my candidate. But her selfish conduct in this contest is both unbelievable and sad. She disappointed a lot of people.

The polls are real and widely reported. It's a question they ask in exit polls. Flipping flopping can't trust her polarizing figure Bill selfish I used to support her. You got most of the talking points in. Question is, whose talking points are they?

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Billy, they actually are my thoughts and opinions. Only paid staffers speak in terms of "talking points". What time does your shift end?

This is why HRC needs Barack as VP or she's toast.

She is toast... Obama will do what is good for the country if she steals the nomination.... McCain will win.... HRC and Obama will come back in 2012 and he will decisively defeat her, the HRC 2008 supporters finally coming to the realization she was a has-been loser in 2008 and is a has-been loser in 2012. HRC will never be president. Thank God.

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What Obama supporters in their hermetically sealed thought bubbles don't seem to realize is that the venom cuts both ways. In fact, for every Obama supporter who swears he or she will vote for McCain in the fall if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, there are at least two Clinton supporters who won't vote for Obama if he is the nominee.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1254

I have yet to see any Obama supporter address this reality in any coherent way.

You are so right JennyFickle. Are they really interested in a Democratic WH? Do Obama's supporters even know what the consequences are for their candidate if they win by trashing Hillary? Me thinks not.

I think they do know. My guess is they are willing to settle for control of the Party this time.

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They don't care--they will just say it was Clinton's fault! They are such republicans, those Obama fans.

nobody is going to pick up 100% of someone else's voters. I would guess 85% is a good starting point for either among dems. He will have to work to get more, but will more than make up for lost numbers with indis and cross-overs.

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In the words of General MacArthur, "duty, honor, country". We just want Hillary to find their meaning.

The 600 series had rubber skin. We spotted them easy, but these are new. They look human - sweat, bad breath, everything. Very hard to spot. Some of them don't even know they're cyborgs.

It's fine to be insulting or disbelieving that there are "real" Democrats out there who feel this way, but the last few weeks have indeed turned a lot of "real" Dems off to HRC. I am deeply torn right now about how I would vote in the fall - or if I would vote in the Presidential race - were she to become the nominee. I cast my first votes for Bill Clinton, and came into politics as a teenager working on the Clinton/Gore '92 campaign. I have never voted for a Republican, so I can't be accused of being an "Obamacrat" or whatever the word is. But I have been deeply, deeply offended by Clinton's tactics in the last couple of weeks. I never thought I would hear a Democratic candidate say, in essence, that the Republican challenger was preferable to her Democratic rival. She has given too much fodder to the Republicans, and its inexcusable, in my opinion.

Yes, I will consider not voting Dem in the Presidential column should she become the nominee. I will work my butt off for all the other Dem candidates in all the races that matter to me, and I will vote a straight Dem ticket with that possible exception. But I don't believe in her as a Democrat anymore. And I think there should be room for a person to sincerely express such an opinion without being doubted or thought to be a troll, traitor, or closet Republican.

Some of us have been hurt by the baseness of the Clinton campaign, as hard as that might be to believe. Implying that McCain is a better candidate; comparing Obama to Ken Starr - these things are just beneath us as a party. I thought I had lost my last bit of political idealism in 2000, but I guess I was wrong.

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There was a recent story that the Clinton campaign was recruiting bloggers. So don't despair, everything is not always as it seems. But if you want the true pulse of where the voters are, you are still more likely to find it here instead of say on CNN. Where is Walter Cronkite when we need him!

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Jenny Fickle, I thought your post was interesting and I have read the Pew Research Center's "General Election" survey from the beginning to the end. The statistics they report are interesting, however I have to question their sample pool as well as the time these statistics were gathered. I am an independent who was once a HRC supported, however because of her negative campaigning tactics she has lost my vote forever. HRC is a very polarizing figure, more so than Obama, and her increasingly negative attacks only makes her more repulsive too many people in which she will have a hard time securing the General Election to become the POTUS. You should take a look at this link for example:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/calling-all-former-clinton-sup.php

THERE ARE PLENTY OF COHERRENT RETORTS TO YOUR POST ON THAT LINK.

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An astute post. I know its hard for the likes of Billy to understand or believe that there is a very good possibility that Black people will finally leave the Democratic Party Plantation (or that not all Black people are "poor" ---- that notion that seems to comfort more than a few white liberals.) This is especially true of marginal, young or first time voters, Blacks who who don't have any memory of the Party's sacrifice of its southern hegemony in exchange for desegregation. Not to speak of Blacks -- again especially young people -- who consider themselves Independents.

All of this is predicated on McCain not picking some nutbag racist for the VP slot. I'm not holding my breath, but this could be the biggest opportunity for Republican small government, social liberal moderates and even principled conservatives to make some inroads into the Black community which they have written off for the last forty years.

Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton with his ease around Black people and his genuine familiarity with the community. I mean no insult to white women here or anywhere else, but in Black social networks, Hillary Clinton is not nearly the object of Black affection and fondness that her husband is, to put not too fine a point on it. When she speaks with Black audiences she comes off as stiff, disingenuous, uncomfortable. The vibe is that she is speaking to "the other", which her husband never gave off.

And now she has sunk to using the lowest, most vile racist tactics to scare white people into voting for her. Tactics which Black people have assumed they would never under any circumstances see coming from a candidate from "their" party. As some of my older relatives say she's "torn her drawers" with a lot of Black people. In other words, we're done with her.

Of course there is going to eventually be a realignment of some sort. That's the history of American politics. Democrats were the party of working class people including working class southerners. State sanctioned discrimination was abolished in 64 and in the south at least, whites left the party in droves as Blacks entered.

Billy has yanked some 70% of Black voters "still like the Clintons" from god knows where. Even if you except it on its face, that is a good deal less than the 90% of Blacks that typically vote for the Democratic candidate in national elections. The difference is much more than enough to hand this election to the Republicans. A lot of Black people will sit this one out if she wins after the depths she has sunk to if for no other reason than McCain just doesn't elicit the same degree of hatred that Bush does.

And by the way Billy I'm really Black and you're really patronizing.

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