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Hillary Clinton now needs 70% of the remaining superdelegates.
According to CBS, the current pledged delegate counts are the following:
Obama, pledged: 1403
Clinton, pledged: 1236
In total, there are 3253 pledged delegates. This means that there are 614 pledged delegates who are currently unaccounted for.
Let's
assume that each candidate will get roughly half (which doesn't seem
like an awful assumption) - 307.
That means that at the end of the primaries, the pledged delegate count will be approximately:
Obama: 1710
Clinton: 1543
Again according to CBS, the current superdelegate counts are:
Obama: 213
Clinton: 249
Which brings us to:
Obama: 1923
Clinton: 1792
A candidate will need at least 2025 votes to wrap it up. Which means:
Obama needs 102 more superdelegates
Clinton needs 233 more superdelegates
There
are a total of 795 superdelegates, 462 of which have already expressed
a preference. Leaving 333 superdelegates currently available.
Which means:
Obama needs 30.6% of the remaining superdelegates.
Clinton needs 70.0% of the remaining superdelegates.
Comments (2)
Additionally, according to this link, there are some superdelegates who are not typically counted as being for a particular candidate but who are, in fact, obligated to go for a specific candidate. It says that 23 are currently known to be obligated for Obama, and 7 for Clinton.
I don't know whether this is entirely accurate or not. I also don't know whether it's still accurate, even if it was at the time that that link was written. I also don't know whether CBS, in fact, is not counting those delegates. For all of those reasons, I did not include these 30 in this post. However, assuming that it's correct, then the situation is:
Of 303 remaining superdelegates, Obama needs 79, and Clinton needs 226.
That is:
Obama needs 26.1% of the remaining superdelegates.
Clinton needs 74.6% of the remaining superdelegates.
March 21, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
zell, you only counted 1/2 the UAD's
the remaining 32 are likely split 15-17 BHO-HRC.
that leaves 271,64,209.
or 24%, 77%
March 21, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
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