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Graceful Exit or Slow Bleed?

Intrade has Obama strong, the delegate numbers are fatal, and l'affaire Ferraro is metastasizing. What is missing at Intrade is any betting on when Clinton will bow out. I presume that is equivalent to a 100% certainty that she will go down fighting, draining much blood and money from the Democratic Party.

Anyone care to make a prediction? When Keith Olberman pounds her with his I-tell-you-three-times cadences, turning repeatedly into the camera in order to speak directly to Hillary, it's gotta hurt. What choices does she have?

A more forceful rejection of Ferraro would be nice, but can it do more than smooth her forced landing? Not that a gentler failure would be bad, but if she acts as if she will lose anyway, why even do that?

I begin to worry that Intrade's missing bets on her withdrawal timing are telling us something.


Comments (34)

The choice is between retaining your dignity and poise when faced with adversity and panicking to a point where you tear down everything you have accomplished. I think it speaks volumes about her leadership skills that she has chosen the latter.

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You don't mount a campaign for the presidency, raise millions from supporters and then, when trailing by 140 delegates, tell your supporters/contributors "Sorry. The Obama people have advised me that I should drop out for the good of the party while the nomination is still winnable."

It appears that the SDs will decide the race. That's the way the process was set up. Let it work.

If democrats want to see the race ended, require the supers to declare and we'll know everything we need to know. It's not all up to Hillary to fold just because you want your boy crowned.

I don't think she should quit. I think she should show some grace under fire rather than show us her campaign's Rove impersonation.

Exactly! I have completely given up on her behaving like she has even a smidgen of home-training though.

Except it ISNT winnable. Not in any legitimate sense. this is the part where we call a state for a candidate--if 40% of the polls are in and he/she is leading by 10%, then you have to accept (just spitballing) that he/she is probably NOT going to lose the rest of the open counties by significantly different numbers.

In order for Hillary to come ahead in the pledged delegates she needs to have FL and MI be seated as is or revoted strongly in her favor and win the remaining contests by >60/40. at SOME point you have to wonder if that is really going to happen. You might want it to happen. She might want it to happen, but it probably isn't going to happen.

If you don't win the pledged delegate lead then you doom the party by taking the nomination. I don't CARE that the superdelegate rules are there in order to allow for this. I don't care that it isn't against the rules to get pledged/unpledged delegates to switch. At this point, that isn't important. What will be important is that a candidate screwed >25 states over in order to accept the nomination and run a general election campaign that looks a hell of a lot like John Kerry's in 2004 and Al Gore's in 2000. Say what you will about vote/election stealing in those contests, the reason it CAME DOWN to Ohio or Florida was because the democratic party gave light red states up to push for big states.

This is being made EXPLICIT by the clinton campaign. they are right now suggesting that you have to win the primary in PA in order to win the general election in PA and that you have to win the general election in PA to win the general election overall. Leave aside the fact that they are claiming this mostly because Clinton leads in PA--that should be obvious. Leave aside the fact that victory in a primary OBVIOUSLY cannot confer victory in the general. And leave aside the fact that electoral breakdowns show that Barack Obama could win the general election and lose PA. Leaving aside the factual problems with the clinton's new strategy, there is the strategic problem of focusing on winning PA, OH, CA, NY, NJ,FL and some always blue states. Just look at the MAP. Look at what the map looks like. It looks like Lincoln's victory in the 1860 elections. The 'flyover' states go red and the coasts go blue. This is the kind of crap that divides the country and lets people like Bush play to the 'heartland'. It is the reason why books get written complaining about middle americans voting for a party (republicans) that doesn't represent their interest. "What's the Matter with Kansas?" remember that? There isn't anything wrong with Kansas, it is the democratic electoral strategy for the past 35 years (with not a good track record, BTW) to ignore Kansas. And CLinton is personifying it again.

Looks like she decided to do the right thing.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/hillary-apologizes-for-racial.php

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If democrats really want the primary race to be over, all it takes is for party members to demand that superdelegates declare who they are supporting now and count the numbers. A good number already have declared. Clinton trails Obama by 140-some delegates.

Continuing through the primaries, neither candidate is likely to win the required number of delegates. The winner of the race will probably be determined by the SDs. So if the party wants the winner to be determined they should pressure the SDs to declare and the math will speak for itself.

I actually made this same point a couple days ago over at the Kos.

It's really only fair to both Clinton and Obama to show all hands.

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It's only common sense, isn't it? We know their positions well by now. SDs should know too. Whod do you support? If something major happens to either of them between now and the convention, you're still able to change your vote with justification.

I support Clinton but if she's going to lose, I would prefer that it happen now. If Obama is going to lose, it would be best now. The SDs need to speak.

I agree. Nothing is gained by anyone by continuing this as it will, in all likelihood, end up with SDs making the call anyway. Why spend all of that money and go through all of this in that case? I'm still hoping for a Friday announcement.

At this point, if the supers decide it for either candidate... chaos!

The party is nearly split 50/50, or more honestly 52/48. But 48% is still a damn large amount of angry delegates even if they decide "with the will of the people."

It's a perfect storm.

(And note: I'm an Obama supporter.)

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...if the supers decide it for either candidate... chaos!

I hope not but, yeah, it could happen. The party is definitely split and, as a Clinton supporter, I'd put it at the 50-50. Just MHO.

I think the current projections are that neither will win the required number of delegates to clinch it. If Howard Dean and the central party want to step into this, don't go to the candidates. Go to the SDs and make the case that now is the time to choose. Most states have voted. Don't make this a TV reality show to have SDs saving their votes for suspense in August.

I want to see the anger between the dems end and begin the reconciliation. Whoever wins, it's going to take some time.

Yup. I'm an Obama supporter -- but sorry folks, I don't see any graceful way to end this thing before May.

Sure, HRC could bow out. I wish she would -- because at this point her only path to victory would be through overcoming pledged delegates with supers, and that's a godawful idea, as well as unlikely. But she won't bow out, and Indlex is right that it would be odd if she did bow out as long as there's a hope, however forlorn, for her supporters.

It *is* a perfect storm. Our best bet would be to ignore the whole race for the next six weeks. Good luck with that, everyone . . .

Any chance the wagons will circle if she loses PA?

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...the wagons will circle...

What do you mean? Both campaigns have already circled their wagons. The lines are pretty well drawn. People know who they support and it's pretty 50/50 at this point.

The selection process needs a dramatic overhaul. People are calling for the end of the race yet primaries are still scheduled till sometime in June. If the party thinks it's bad to have a campaign drag on till then, step into the process and revise it. And, in doing so, change it so we do not have to suffer the insufferable Iowa caucuses and NH primary that too often determine who is still in the race when the majority of people get to vote. Don't let that relative handfull of people determine who I can vote for down the line.

Minor point: somebody with the career of Hillary Clinton doesn't bow to the camera takes of an Olbermann. You don't get to the show by bowing to critics who pander to your opponents.

Major point: if she fights all the way to the convention and still loses... it's still the right thing to do. Millions of us support her and we deserve to be recognized and heard at the convention.

Most important point: She could still win. Let's not end things just yet.

Win or lose she will have done it ugly. I guess that does not matter to someone who thinks Nature Boy is a good avitar. Political discourse should be better than the rantings we hear in a wrestling pre-bout presser.

Whooooooooo!

destor: "Whooooo!"

Best reply ever. Kudos!

How in the WORLD is it the right thing to do? I mean, when do we start talking about Hillary like we talk about Huckabee? At what point do we stop accepting tortured logic about delegate counts and get down to the notion that she isn't going to win.

And furthermore, is it the 'right' thing to continue down the same strategic path that Kerry did in 2004? That Gore did in 2000? Is it the 'right' thing to reject the notion that the top of the ticket should draw new democratic voters, not just represent the notion that we should attempt to be republican-lite? Wouldn't you like to win southern states again (save Arkansas where Clinton would probably clear handily)? Wouldn't you like to see some more Senators like Jon Tester? Wouldn't you like to see a campaign driven on the notion of increasing the base, not just depnding on it and capturing some center-left republicans and independents instead?

How important is it that she wins? Is it important enough that we can look back and say that Hillary won the democratic nomination by overturning the pledged delegate count, suggesting that the first serious black presidential candidate (sorry, Mr. Jackson) in history is an equal opportunity hire and convincing people finally that the language of politics isn't inspiration but power. Because that's what she has to do to win. Do you want that? Is it noble?

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"boy"???
...no need for Hillary to fold, just because we want our "boy crowned"?

Pardon me Indiex, but, which boy would that be?

Thank you, Tom! ♪♪♪

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Ok, I think these are the facts:

- Obama has won a lot more states that HRC

- Obama has a lead in delegates

- HRC, even if she wins big in all the remaining states, cannot catch up

So, why is she still running? She is hoping that Obama will have a blowout, and she doesn't mind sprinkling some nails on the road to get it. Or, she plans to manipulate the process somehow.

BP

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The only reason the SDs won't declare now is their lack of courage in doing so before all the primaries are done. But, as several have noted, the primaries will not finally decide in any overwhelming way, so the dilemma that exists for the SDs now will be the same. The only difference, I think, will be that the SDs will not be subject to criticism for deciding before the primaries. (If you think that's an idle issue for them, google Doris Matsui's decision to support HC early.)
In contrast, we are seeing the Dem candidates tear each other up even as McCain sits back, raises money for the general election and takes notes.
Which, in your view, is the greater danger to the country? Seems to me that the SDs, TODAY, could declare that they will announce for their candidate depending on the PA outcome, but no later. While that may give the jolly folks in PA lots of power, it really won't, since the SDs have to be influenced by the total results of all the primaries to date.
By announcing today where they will be in less than a month, at least we'll stop the infliction of the "thousand cuts".

I think the Supers should let it go for now but let her know that the next racist statement, bald faced lie, or statement saying that Sen McCain is better than her oponent on an issue even as trivial as his golf hadicap she is done. She can compare and contrast herself and her oponent on the issues, on qualifications, or on management style but she does not get to make stuff up and tear the party down.

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All of that sounds like sound advice for the Obama campaign as well.

I'm an Obama supporter, but she has no reason to drop out. She's got millions in the bank, lots of party apparatus behind her. What does she have to lose staying in. If she leaves, she loses, if she fights to bitter end and loses, so what, at least fighting had a chance no matter how slim to be a "winner."

I think she's run a dirty, divisive campaign, but looking at it from her viewpoint, of course she's gonna stay in, I expect to see a nasty fight at the convention.


Norah O'Donnell/MSNBC just made mention of a private conversation between Obama and Clinton today on Capitol Hill.

Maybe they were discussing what to order for take-out?

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Perhaps Clinton gloated about the anxiety and fear that she has created in the minority community. Perhaps she cautioned him that this fear will only mount in the coming months. Perhaps she forewarned her opponent that she will continue to stir up race hatred and prejudice unless and until he yields.

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Actually, I don't mind the race continuing. But I guess they have to lower the volume. No more kitchen sink, no more McCain, but not Obama C in C, no more racist innuendo (by the way, I am with Obama, but tell your pastor he is not helping). Otherwise, whoever wins, is not gonna win in the GE because the other side of the party is gonna be reluctant to help.

The numbers aren't ready for a SD vote unless about a third of HRC's SDs are ready to switch and support Obama OR 90% of Obamas SDs are prepared to switch to HRC. Just allocating the 335 uncommitted SDs 100% to either candidate won't result in a 2025 total for either one. So some of the commmitted SDs would have to switch.

Really, the only way this scenario works is if every SD pledges for one of the candidates. The force of the SDs as a unified body could legitimize brining the contest to an end. But a split would represent the continuing contention of who has the most support, which warrants moving ahead through at least the end of the primaries, giving the SDs the full campaign season to make a decision.

Simple alternative---supers are unseated, pledged delegates show a simple majority, winner is declared.

Hey, why not dream occasionally?

But then th contest must continue until Puerto Rico, and the MI/FL situation has to be resolved. Neither candidate will bow out on the premise that they have no chance of running the table with 75% of the remaining pledged delegates. Talk about dreams, eh? ;-)

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Do Clinton advocates have any misgivings whatsoever about the tactics employed by the former First Lady? Do they empathize with the plight of ethnic minorities in any way? Do they have any idea how these tactics have affected the minority community? Do they realize that their candidate has aroused fear in the hearts of innocents? Do they even care?

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