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Emotional Infantilism
It’s good to see Josh directly addressing, in his “Goodbye, Cruel Ballot Box” post, the threats by some Democratic voters to sit out or vote McCain in 2008. It’s an important conversation that needs to begin now.
However, I disagree with him on a few points. By focusing on the minor public policy differences between Clinton and Obama, he underestimates what is at stake in the most divisive - but most realistic - scenario for a Clinton victory. And because of that, Josh gives no consideration to the rational and potentially justifiable reasons Obama supporters might give for not voting Clinton in the fall.
Before explaining why I disagree with Josh on these points, I should say a few things (as an Obama supporter). In the unlikely, nearly impossible event Clinton wins the nomination by passing Obama in pledged delegates, I’ll vote for her without hesitation. In the unlikely, nearly impossible event Clinton takes the nomination by pulling even in pledged delegates and winning via supers, I’ll vote for her with a tinge of regret. In the unlikely but not entirely implausible event Clinton takes the nomination by running off a string of victories between now and June, pulling very close in pledged delegates, and winning via supers, I’ll much more likely than not vote for her. And I don’t have much of a problem with labelling sitting out or voting McCain as emotional infantilism under most plausible scenarios like those just listed..
However, the most likely scenario for a Clinton victory doesn’t run like that - the most common victory scenario is that she’s still down in the delegate count by a substantial amount and the supers overturn the expressed wishes of a process in which millions upon millions of Democrats participated.
In that case, I don’t know what I’d do. Nor do I pretend to know right now what I think others should do. There could be massive, angry protests at the convention. The chances for a Democratic victory would be much diminished, even if angry Obama supporters didn’t sit out. A good chunk of one of the strongest, most loyal Democratic voting blocs could be alienated for several elections, perhaps forever. And there will be millions of Democratic voters asking themselves “What exactly is the point of voting or attending caucuses in a party nomination process if the process does not recognise the candidate with the most support as the winner?”
Speaking only for myself, I don’t have an answer to that question. Nor have I seen any convincing answers in the press or blogosphere. But I will say this - a political party that cannot supply a good answer to that question is a political party that does not deserve your vote or mine.
If the nominee is the pledged delegate leader, the question won’t come up. And perhaps the Democratic party can come up with an answer even if Clinton overturns a pledged delegate lead with superdelegates. I have my doubts. But if the Democratic party cannot give a good answer to the question everyone will be asking, I do not see how anyone could label citizens who choose not to vote Democratic in the fall or who turn to extra-electoral politics after an unjust nomination process as “emotionally infantile.”
You could object that I’m speculating on unlikely scenarios here, and I’d concede the point. You might even say that it’s extreme and irresponsible to discuss such divisive, remote possibilities. But if you believe it’s extreme and irresponsible or “emotionally infantile” to discuss potential consequences of the most likely scenario for a Clinton victory, what label would you apply to Clinton’s ongoing decision to continue her campaign?







Comments (6)
Thanks, Brendan, for injecting an element of reality into speculation about "what would I do if Hillary Clinton wins?" It all depends on how she wins. I don't see a likely path from the current status to Clinton emerging with the nomination, and it's harder still to envision an honorable path. I hope not to have to make that decision, but if I do it will be informed by an understanding of how she got from here to there. I can't issue a blanket absolution that whatever she does will be acceptable to me.
March 22, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
well please, at least if you end up not prepared to vote for HRC, vote Green, or even Nader - anything but for McCain.
March 22, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Superdelegates are a check on the system, so that the voters won't select an extreme candidate by a whisker over a candidate who will far more likely win.
At this point, I do not see how any reasonable, thoughtful Superdelegate can look at the two candidates, and consider Clinton the more electable, let alone far more so.
If all these uncommitted Superdelegates were so inclined toward Clinton, they would have jumped in line behind her in November and December, when she had a thirty point lead nationally, and she really had an electability-by-vetting argument over Obama.
Now, it looks like Obama has not only weathered his biggest roadblock, but prospered politically in the process, Clinton is no better than even in national polls, Obama has 90% of the delegate momentum, and 150 pledged delegate lead, and the entire Clinton team looks increasingly desperate.
Every day that an uncommitted delegate doesn't declare for Clinton, is half the opportunity for her to ever get that delegate. She needs declarations of support yesterday to get this thing done, and everybody's on the fence (or waiting for God-knows-what).
March 22, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is also infantile is to keep pushing the line that SDs are supposed to follow the delegates or the "will of the people" or it is some kind of coup. If they were to mirror the delegates as voted, why the Hell have them? While I wish they would completely overhaul this mess of a nominating system,it's the system we have now and the system the candidates entered and to complain that the completely political vote that the SD makes will be a travesty if it isn't for your candidate is, to put it kindly, a misrepresentation to game the system.
March 23, 2008 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don, I agree with you that the nomination process needs reforming. One of the reasons for the bitterness between the Obama and Clinton camps is that there is no agreement on the legitimacy of the process - and that is because it is a poorly designed process. My preference for next time is that the superdelegates be abolished. They have played no useful function in the twenty-odd years they’ve existed, and this year their effect is pernicious.
I recognise, of course, that in theory the superdelegates are free to vote as they will, even to the extent of overturning the clearly expressed preference of primary voters and caucus participants. I also recognise that such an outcome is within the rules as they existed prior to the contest, and can thus be said, in a limited way, to meet requirements of procedural fairness.
The problem is that the Democratic Party nomination process is not some kind of law school seminar on procedure. It is a public nomination process with many attributes of an election. As such, in my view, the outcome needs to be seen by nearly all participants as legitimate. And it is highly unlikely that an outcome where the superdelegates overturn the clear preference of primary voters and caucus participants would be seen as legitimate. Nor should it be. I suspect this is why Nancy Pelosi and many others have suggested that it is vital that the superdelegates follow the “will of the voters.”
Evidently you believe that Pelosi’s view (and mine) is infantile. Presumably this is because all participants in the process, including voters, knew the rules ahead of time, or at least could have known them. And those citizens knew that their vote, or their caucus participation, was not voting in the conventional sense but merely an advisory expression of preference that could be overturned at the whim of 796 party elders for any reason or no reason at all.
My only response is that if you believe this, then you, and others who are contemplating scenarios that could result in the splitting of the Democratic Party, should be prepared to explain to the millions participating in the process that what they were doing was not voting in the normally understood sense of the word. You will need to be able to explain why those who have stood in line for hours in the depth of winter in order to vote have no reason to believe that their vote will count, in the commonly understood sense of that word.
It will need to be a good explanation, convincing not only to those who did not know the rules before participating, but also those, like myself, who understood them very well but participated in the faith that party elders would understand the foolishness of overturning any clear result of the primaries and caucuses.
Because for better or worse, I do not understand voting, even in this flawed process, as an advisory expression of preference. I understand the act of voting as one of the cornerstones of representative democracy.
March 23, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a new poster and obviously don't understand how to post under my normal screen name. Anyway, I am the author of the original post. Brendan Fletcher = livio.
March 23, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
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