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Don't go negative, Barack
I'm starting to change my mind about the "Obama needs to get
tough and attack Hillary" meme. For one thing, this view is in response
to the "Hillary got a last minute surge of support because of negative
ads in Ohio and Texas" meme, and I'm not sure that's actually accurate.
When you look at focus group data on the red phone ad (sorry I can't
remember where I saw this) undecided voters actually had a strong
negative reaction to it. I have a different explanation for the sudden
Hillary surge in the days before Texas and Ohio: the media started
writing her obituary. People in the Democratic base have been rooting
for Hillary for almost 16 years now. For all that time, her successes
have been the successes of the party; Democrats have been identifying
with her accomplishments and failures, in the same way that we identify
with the accomplishments or failures of, say, David Ortiz. That
identification I think is strongest among people who don't pay that
close attention to politics, Democrats who look at politics through an
"our team" versus "their team" lens, and especially women, who on a
very personal level identify with Hillary's struggles as a woman trying
to be successfull in a man's world.
What's happening now is like
a bad breakup between Clintons and Democratic voters. You know the way
you can want to break up with a girl, think it's the right move, have
someone better lined up - and then all of a sudden, once you're
actually halfway through ending it, you start to think about how great
they were, how you had such great times together, etc. A solid
percentage - I think a majority - of Democrats want to move on past the
garbage of the Clinton years. But once it starts to seem like that is
actually happening, once Hillary starts to fade a bit from the public
spotlight, the story becomes "The End of Clinton" and voters
immediately sympathize with her and her support rises. That's what
happened in New Hampshire, and I think to a lesser degree that's what
happened in Ohio and Texas.
I know people are going to say that
I'm trying to explain away Hillary's support, and I suppose in part I
am, but I do have some respect for the value of loyalty. I don't
personally feel any, because I never liked the Clintons, but I respect
the fact that some people do.Another way of putting this I suppose is
"buyers remorse" or doubts about Obama. But I don't think the doubts
really are about Obama. I think the doubts are about leaving Hillary
behind.
If I'm right about this, then the last thing Obama
should do is go negative. In fact, Obama should do the reverse; he
should show respect and admiration for Hillary's time of service, which
is really showing respect and admiration for Hillary's supporters.
Maybe even take a shot at somebody for making sexist charges against
Hillary. I don't think he has anything to lose, because I don't
actually think Hillary has a shot at the nomination at this point - I
think superdelegates are ultimately going to decide this thing, and
they are going to decide it for Obama. They know he is in the interest
of the party.
Of course, if I'm right, then the last thing
Hillary should do is continue to go negative, which is the lesson that
she learned from those victories.
Comments (4)
Unfortunately going negative against Hillary and getting the scmuck media (can I say scmuck) to give Barack equal time, is how you partially win elections in this ridiculous system we have. He needs to get back full momentum. He didnt need it when he was winning big, but he needs it now to close the deal.
March 8, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a little confused about the lesson Hillary supposedly learned from her victories. She won because she went negative, so why would she change her strategy. The media doesn't take her to task, so the only way that she will change is if voters reject it.
Obama doesn't need to go negative, but he does need to press her to release her tax returns like everyone else and ask her why is she intent on running a win at any cost negative campaign.
March 8, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let’s admit it, most people are following this election not because of the issues that America is facing, or the changes that can come about from this election, they are following it because it is exciting. People like that it is so close. How many of us wouldn’t love to watch a World Series game seven go into extra innings; and once it gets to extra inning we love the excitement; some of us don’t want it to end. And this is where Ohio and Texas come in. They don’t want this race to end. They want it to go on. They love the excitement. I believe that Obama will win the next few smaller states, which I believe are focused more on the issues given to their size and attentiveness to the issues, and once we get to Pennsylvania, again it will appear as if this could be the end, and a lot of voters will go in and vote for Hillary in order to keep this excitement going. There is only one thing, this is not a baseball game or some kind of exciting race; this is the future of this country we are dealing with. It is sad that the excitement that this election is offering is more important than the issues facing this country.
March 8, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right now, Obama is fighting the media. They took Hillary's complaints to heart, so they're bending over backwards for her now. And let's face it, they don't want this contest to end. It's too lucrative, for one thing. And it's got everyone watching the news.
But that means that Barack Obama is being stuck on defense. Hillary attacks and he tries to respond. That's playing her game, but he can't seem to get any press for his OWN game. (I hope that's different in the primary states still to vote, but it really seems to be that way here.)
This is damaging, no doubt about it. But going negative himself won't help. I agree that he should not just stay positive, but should take every chance to praise Clinton (while never failing to point out why he's the better candidate and will make the better president). His campaign has been superb so far. I don't think this little fumble should make him change his tactics. He needs to keep to his OWN gameplan.
March 8, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
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