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Digging deeper into SurveyUSA 50 state poll
I've looked at the actual poll numbers by state for the SurveyUSA 50 state poll. Here is some info I've seen:
Using the assumption that a 4 pt spread is "too close to call", I've listed the states that each candidate wins with 4 pt or less and the number of Electoral Votes.
Clinton V McCain:
Clinton: HI 4, MN 10, NM 5, PA 21, WI 10 = 50 EV
McCain: MI 17, MO 11, TN 11, WA 11 = 50 EV
Obama V McCain:
Obama: VA 13, NH 4, ND 3, NE 2 (split), MI 17 = 39 EV
McCain: TX 34, SD 3, SC 8, NC 15, NJ 15, NE 3 (split), FL 27 = 105 EV
Common Close States: MI 17
This tells me that Clinton v McCain will be tightly fought contest among only a few states, much like 2004. An Obama v McCain contest will be more far reaching, and McCain will be the one having to defend a lot of normally red states. If it comes down to money, McCain would need to spread his money much further to try and overtaken Obama than he would Clinton.
Comments (2)
After I did this, I saw someone else did a similar blog, using 3 percent and 5 percent as the "too close to call" number. I was using 4 percent, so I broke in the middle.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/survey-usa-with-tossups.php
March 6, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
After I did this, I saw someone else did a similar blog, using 3 percent and 5 percent as the "too close to call" number. I was using 4 percent, so I broke in the middle.
tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/survey-usa-with-tossups.php
March 6, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
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