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Browkaw: Obama has 50 super delegates ready to Announce
You can see the video here.
This is huge news. This is the killing stoke to the Clinton campaign. Here's why:
Say she wins narrow victories in 3 of the 4 states today but only nets ~10 delegates. That still leaves her over 100 delegates behind even if you are counting the supers in the total. Now on Wednesday Obama rolls out 50 new superdelegates, say 5 every hour all day long and also announces that he raised $50+ million in February fundraising?
That steals the news cycle from Clinton narrow victories and brings everyone's attention back to the delegate math and Clinton's insurmountable deficit there.










Comments (47)
Thanks for the link. Very, very interesting.
Will keep this in the back of my mind, as the next few days unfold and as returns come in tonight.
March 4, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this is true, it is big. It would also explain Hillary's "kitchen sink" strategy and Obama's apparent refusal to return in kind. He may already know that regardless of the outcome tonight (barring major surprise landslide wins by Clinton) he can deliver the "death blow" shortly after.
March 4, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this post is right. And thank you for explaining where those February fundraising statistics went. I've been waiting for them. That's what really matters to the Superdelegates.
If he can roll out at least one Superdelegate (50+) for every Million Dollars ($50+) he raised in February parading around for 3 days starting tonight at 7:00pm, he'll definitely win the news cycle back (or at least tie with decent coverage).
March 4, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I so hope this is true.
If it is, Obama is a political genius.
Bring on McCain!
March 4, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
March 4, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay. You've worn me down. I'm starting to find these silly posts endearing.....
March 4, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just give in.. you start to look forward to them! :)
March 5, 2008 4:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Crossing my fingers and toes this is true.
March 4, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it were true why would they hold off on announcing it? It would have been a good way to turn recent news cycles to their advantage, going into today's voting.
March 4, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's all about the delegate count. HRC has never had a chance to pull a lot of delegates out of today's vote, so it makes sense to counter any popular victory HRC may pull out with the continuing narrative that it will not be possible for her to accumulate the delegates needed to win the nomination. The Dem leadership will have more reason than ever to call for her to withdraw from the race.
As to not announcing sooner, it's highly unlikely that anything from the last few days would have a huge impact on the final results tonight, so there wasn't a need to shift the focus. I also don't think that the average voter is paying as much attention to the delegate picture in making up their minds today, so announcing a 50+ jump in delegate lead wouldn't have much of an impact on how voters decide today. But tomorrow, any momentum HRC might claim will be seriously dampened if a large number of SDs come out in O's favor, especially if they do so in the face of an ostensible HRC victory today.
March 4, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably because they don't want to risk what happened in NH. When Obama landed in NH after Iowa he declared that if he won NH he'd win the nomination. That motivated Clinton supporters and probably led to some complacency among Obama supporters.
Better to be the underdog going into Texas and Ohio, let expectations build for a good night for Clinton and keep his supporters motivated. If they turn out and he wins both tonight, this is the coup de grace. If Clinton wins, this shifts momentum back in his direction, probably for good.
March 4, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting, and another example of the superior strategy being carried out by Plouffe and Axelrod. The O campaign has done a great job managing when key endorsements are announced, too. I think we really are seeing a new campaign template in the making, at least for how a positive>/i> strategy can be successful. Great stuff...
March 4, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now tell us how that superior strategy included losing Texas and Ohio.
March 5, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
And if that Obama announces his superdelegates and a huge fundraising lead, The Clinton and the shrillbots will all whine about how unfair the media is to them.
March 4, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with the poster above, who sites holding this back as excellent "death blow" strategy. Clinton played her hand that her campaign will spin anything that possibly happens this evening as buyer remorse. Obama can counter with releasing the February fundraising and a big super delegate shift to offset her empty rhetoric, which the media will spoon feed on per usual.
March 4, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama Campaign: Dials phone.
Super-Delegate: "Hello?"
Obama Campaign: "Hi SD, this is the Obama campaign calling to see if you would endorse Barack?"
Super-Delegate: "Well, I'd like to hold off committing. But, I am worried about our chances in the general election if this thing goes negative."
Obama Campaign: "Well, we promise to keep focused on the issues that your constituents care about."
Super-Delegate: "I'll tell you what, if Hillary goes negative you've got my vote."
Obama Campaign: "Thanks SD! Our campaign staff will be in touch Wednesday to go over the PR with you."
Super-Delegate: "Your welcome."
March 4, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quote: "If it were true why would they hold off on announcing it? It would have been a good way to turn recent news cycles to their advantage, going into today's voting."
How about the super delegates not wanting to influence the primaries about to take place?
March 4, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news if it is true. Here's hoping it is.
March 4, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is behind by close to a hundred Superdelegate pledges, so 50 would help him close some of the gap and such an announcement would only leave another 450 to announce.
March 4, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
where do you get 100. last time i checked it was 47.
March 4, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's superdelegate lead is below 50 now:
http://bp0.blogger.com/_qJGvnOCBQcA/R8uIXZbOvoI/AAAAAAAAAGM/szH5M07WY0w/s1600-h/image001.gif
It would be huge news for him to announce that in one day he overtakes her SD lead. It would be much bigger than her winning TX and OH by slim margins.
But this is one quick aside from Brokaw, so I won't be counting on it. I will be hoping!
March 4, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's down to 39 now:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
March 5, 2008 4:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to say I think Obama misplayed his big lead a bit, and while Hillary cannot come back to win in any way that doesn't destroy her in the process, she now can sabotage his chances in the general. And it looks like she might be willing to, for the sake of 2012.
As soon as Hawaii was in, Obama should have started running 95% against McCain, on traditional democratic issues. He should have brought up ss privatization, Iraq, etc. That would have innocculated him against the slime she has been throwing, because she would be attacking the guy attacking McCain and cutting her own throat.
March 4, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he did switch to 95% directed at McCain until the last few days. I'm dismayed, however, at his being sucked in to some stammering denials re: NAFTA/Canada and the Rezco muck. I wish he hit harder back here, and positioned himself further above this slime. Instead, he appears to have gotten testy yesterday defending himself against Rezco.
March 4, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Buyer's Remorse: What's more devastating in this regard than the l-o-n-g string of high profile (John Lewis, thank you very much) formerly HRC committed SuperDelegates that rejected & renounced their HRC support in order to support Barack Obama?
March 4, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another reason to delay announcement is to give Clinton the opportunity, if today's results are bad, to make the decision herself, thereby saving SDs possibly bad feelings from her and her supporters and avoiding the appearance of a 'push.' Not likely she would do that, but in fairness she should have the opportunity. ......
I wonder if, in her heart of hearts, a tiny bit of her is wishing it will be bad enough today that she could just end it now? Nah! Guess not.
March 4, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering also why Obama hasn't released his fundraising numbers prior to March 4th, when that little boost could certainly help him today, maybe a percentage or two.
Then I realized: He doesn't need to be helped a percentage or two. What he needs is to be able to show that any victories Hillary has today are meaningless.
Best way to do that? The day after any such victories, release a slew of information showing how strong his position really is, both financially with regard to superdelegate support. This allows Obama both to take back the media dialog and blunt any possible momentum Hillary might take away today.
The question is, will the MSM bite. They're in defensive mode right now, trashing Obama every way they can to "prove" to Hillary how "fair" they are, so who knows. It's pretty hard to avoid news like that though.
So, here's hoping this news is true. Guess we'll find out in the next couple days.
March 4, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope he tries to pull a stunt like that. It will give the perfect opportunity for the Clinton camp to go after the ridiculous myth that the an insignificant lead in the pledged delegate count should decide who the nominee is. The Clinton camp needs to start publizing the plegded delegate count in terms of percentages instead of the random meaningless number of actual delegates. People need to see how ridiculous the difference between the two is. Obama will be trying to steal the election with Super Delegates before all states had even had an opportunity to have their say. I hope and pray that some of these Super Delegates are from states Clinton has won so that the argument can be made that they are suppressing the democratic will of the people just to show how illegitmate this ploy would be. I am praying even harder that one of those super delegates is Donna Brazile or another member of the rules committee that ignored its own guidelines in stripping Michigan and Florida of all their delegates. I hope that the same people who stole the votes of those in Florida amd Michigan attempt to use their power to render the votes of those in the states yet to hold their contests null and void as well. I am personally ready to leave this party and vote for McCain if there is any organized and concerted attempt by the Obama campaign or anyone else of influence in this party to cut short this primary process and swing this election to anyone before every single democrat has had a chance to go to the polls and vote.
March 4, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is called manipulating the data to make it appear to say something it doesn't.
They need only be apart by 1 delegate for Obama (or Hillary) to win. Percentages are meaningless. How does one measure how close a candidate is to winning if we say they're only 0.000493% apart? (1/2025).
No. The delegate count gives a far clearer picture because it provides the ability to count delegates needed to win.
With each state primary that passes, and Hillary's delegate deficit doesn't shrink, that win becomes increasingly mathematically impossible. The percentages wouldn't reveal that.
March 4, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you a crazy person? You are talking like a crazy person. Since when do parties wait until the last state (or territory) has voted before lining up behind a presumptive nominee?
How is controlling the release of information a "stunt"? That's just a part of the game. Would you get all uppity if it was Hillary using that same strategy? If not, why not? I guarantee she's already done it.
My sincerest condolences if you really are a crazy person.
March 4, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the alternative? Giving the nomination to the candidate with an insignificant deficit in the pledged delegate count?
March 4, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Umm....what?????
rjpjr, how long have you been following Presidential primaries?? Are you fairly new to this?
First, Clinton and Obama have both announced their endorsements/ super-delegates intermittently throughout their campaigns. They both strategically time these announcements to give their campaigns momentum. Do you feel that's a "stunt"? Don't worry about it--it's normal.
There IS a frontrunner in pledged delegates at this point (Obama), but Hillary will continue to be viable as long as her donors and the Democratic Party believe she still has a reasonable shot at winning, not because there's a Democratic Party committment to wait for every vote in every state. (Wouldn't it be nice if we all really were guaranteed a chance to have our votes matter?) I live in Texas and this is the first time I've ever even had an opportunity to affect the outcome of a Presidential primary. Yeehaw!
Just hang on to your hat. Obama supporters were going crazy a few weeks ago when THEY felt threatened that super-delegates were going to thwart voters' will. They're NOT going to do that this time. Everybody should just RELAX about that. I'm confident they're not going to allow either candidate to win unfairly, and they're not going to jeopardize the party.
March 5, 2008 2:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
They need only be apart by 1 delegate for Obama (or Hillary) to win. Percentages are meaningless. How does one measure how close a candidate is to winning if we say they're only 0.000493% apart? (1/2025).
No. The delegate count gives a far clearer picture because it provides the ability to count delegates needed to win.
With each state primary that passes, and Hillary's delegate deficit doesn't shrink, that win becomes increasingly mathematically impossible. The percentages wouldn't reveal that.
This statement is highly misleading. The number of delegates apart is irrelevant- the question is do they have the 2025 needed to secure the nomination. The fact is neither side will get that without the superdelegates. The Obama camp is trying to steal the election by coercing the superdelgates to vote for him on the basis of his lead among pledged delegates. My point was that his lead among pledged delegates is statistically insignificant and that the superdelegates should be under no pressure to vote for him because of it. The superdelegates should wait until the enitre process is done and vote for the candidate they feel is best positioned to win in November and be the best president for America. Considering the way the delegate selection process works- IE you can win the popular vote somehwere but get less delgates- it is not some sort of mandate of the voice of the people and the Obama camp needs to stop lying and saying it is. Everyone needs to let the people vote, all of them. Let there voice be heard. If after that there is no nominee so be it. At that point the superdelegates should step in and make their choice, but not until then. And that should only happen after the public is able to see a clear analysis of the votes of all the states, how the delegates shake out,etc. I personally would like to see a system where the superdelgates from each state get together and distribute their votes so that the final delegate count from that state is as close to reflective of the percentage breakdown of the popular vote as possible. In other words, if Obama won 50% of the vote and Clinton won 50% of the vote in that state, but Clinton wound up with 55% of the delegates and Obama 45% (that is possible) then the superdelegates in that state distribute themselves so that the delegates from that state are reflective of the popular vote. In other words they even it out so both Clinton and Obama wind up with 50% of the delegates from that state.
Are you a crazy person? You are talking like a crazy person. Since when do parties wait until the last state (or territory) has voted before lining up behind a presumptive nominee?
They do that when none of the nominees has sufficent delegates to wrap up the nomination. It is called democracy in case you were unaware. Are you an ingnorant person or just plain stupid? My sincere condolonces either way.
March 4, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think rjpjr is the only Clinton supporter posting on this thread. There was some interesting research done by the Harvard Business School a while back. They found that crazy CEOs could actually drive their employees crazy and end up with very crazy organizations. All of the sane people leave when the craziness starts, and the crazies just get crazier and crazier, until nothing is left but a positive feedback loop of craziness.
March 4, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, that's where I work.
March 4, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL Rootman. I used to work there, but I left. Not in time, though.
March 5, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
...which leaves them all babbling endless platitudes about experience, the rolling up of sleeves and solutions? Yeah, I can totally see what you mean. That is exactly what's happening in the Clinton camp.
March 4, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Egg! How you feeling this morning, my man? What you eating along with your own words? Bon Appetit!
March 5, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay rjpjr, I'll take you up on that.
Right now Obama has ~53% of the pledged delegates to Clinton's ~47%. About 81% of pledged delegates have already been allocated. This is assuming a 50/50 delegate split tonight, which is definitely a Clinton-favoring assumption.
So to do an election-night metaphor, Obama has a 6-point margin with 81% of the vote in.
Does that REALLY seem less significant than the raw numbers suggest?
March 5, 2008 3:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
If rjpjr is a typical Clinton activist, that explains a lot. Reading a post from him/her/it is like reading the pseudo science that gets quoted by Republicans denying the need to address global warming. Clinton's campaign is the one that was making all the ridiculous statements about how some states' votes don't matter, and that it's only the delegate-superdelegate count that matters -- as long as she had the lead. Suddenly, she's all about letting the voters be heard? That is truly comical. She manipulates voter ignorance, and has gotten very good at it. As US citizen, it's disgusting and offensive to watch.
March 5, 2008 5:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
That must be why all the really intelligent voters are voting for Obama. They can't be manipulated. Thank God for educated, upper class whites, college students and black voters. You can't manipulate those people.
March 5, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even with after the smoke clears from Tuesday's vote, I hope the majority of the fifty or so super delegates that Browkaw mentioned will have the wisdom and courage to not want to prolong the inevitable. The viciousness with which the Clinton camp behaved in the last week or so makes it slightly more likely that, at the very most, Clinton might somehow manage to win the primary only to lose in the general election.
The uncommitted super delegates must find the courage to help prevent additional damage to the Democratic Party's ability to win in November. If they sit back and allow the Clinton Camp to continue on this destructive path without showing their disapproval by taking sides, then they too will have to share the blame for the loss that will ensue in November.
P.S. Although I'm a long time reader, this is my maiden post on TPM. :-)
March 5, 2008 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great post! From the heart.
March 5, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your post gives us a good way I think to evealuate what happened last night. As I understand things, prior to HRC's victories in TX, OH and RI, Tom Brokaw reported that a source in the Obama camp had advised him that 50 supers were going to announce their support for Obama. The bottom line is if that still happens then HRC's victories were insignificant. . .but if it doesn't happen and the drip, drip of supers going over to BHO is stopped, then it shows that the dynamics of the race have definitely changed.
March 5, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has denied it was ever even a possibility. According to him, someone in his campaign misspoke. I guess they are going to hold off on those endorsements until they really need them, considering how she just slid by in Ohio and Texas. Maybe they're waiting for him to win Pennsylvania! ROFL!
It would actually be pretty funny if he did get a bunch of big name endorsements and super del pledges this week or next. Hasn't stopped her yet.
March 5, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ready when you are, Tom.
March 5, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Waiting for that killing stroke, Tom.
March 5, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
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