Little Fish says that the following link will take you to some interesting figures on electoral outcomes of contests to date. The narrative is frustratingly 'on the fence' but the data is nutritious.

The figures -- surprise surprise-- could be used to buttress just about any electability argument put forth by either campaign. However, the most interesting figure is towards the bottom-

52% of the votes to date were were cast in 16 *open* primaries, of which 11 were carried by Obama.


Of all open primaries, Obama is ahead, 51 to 44%.


Of all open primaries, his margin is 1,051,501.

This is perhaps the best data so far indicating how either candidate would fare in the GE.

At first glance this appears to fortify BHO's argument that he catches more independent and cross-over votes than HRC. In closed primaries, that figure reverses, giving an advantage to HRC- portending a particularly steep slope for BHO in PA.

Peace