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A leading indicator of a doomed candidacy
(Also at The Jed Report)
Today's headline in the WaPo:
It was a beautiful thing to see -- because the moment a presidential candidate is forced to vow that he or she isn't quitting, you know they are toast.
Examples from recent history:
Feb 5: Romney Vows to Stay in GOP Race
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney pledged to fight all the way to the Republican nominating convention this summer if necessary, despite being overpowered by John McCain in Super Tuesday contests.
Feb 4: Huckabee vows to stay in race
WASHINGTON -- Mike Huckabee hasn't won a Republican presidential contest in a month. The result: money is tighter, his staff is smaller and he can't seem to get the attention he once did. Still, he says he's sticking around for the long haul -- well past Tuesday's coast-to-coast primaries and caucuses if need be.
Jan 24: Giuliani Vows to Stay in the Race
BOCA RATON, Fla. – Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has staked his candidacy on the Florida primary only to see his standing in statewide polls slip, said here Thursday afternoon that he would stay in the race even if he loses on Jan. 29.
Jan 6: Edwards vows to stay in race to convention
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Democrat John Edwards said Sunday he
will stay in the presidential race through the party's convention in
late August, even if he fails to win any of the early presidential
primary states. "This is the call of my life, and I have no intention
of stopping," Edwards said on ABC's This Week. "I'm in this through the
convention and to the White House." Asked specifically if he'd remain a
candidate even if he failed to garner a win over the next month,
Edwards said, "Absolutely."
Comments (29)
This is GOOD, jedreport! I sure wish it were true! Something tells me Hillary's gonna break the mold, unless she's taken out in her stronghold, PA...
March 30, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot about McCain vowing to stay in the race last summer.
Oops!
March 31, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forgot to post the links:
McCain vows to fight on" July 16, 2007
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0707/4981.html
March 31, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope.
March 30, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Consider the alternatives: Senator Clinton says, "I hope to remain in the contest for at least another week as I assess my chances to win this nomination", or "I will be dropping out of this race in the next few weeks", or "I know I can't win the nomination, so I won't keep this going much longer", etc. What are the chances of even Kucinich or Rudolph ever saying something like that, let alone an almost successful candidate?
We should have a betting pool to pick the week that she suspends her candidacy - no one ever drops out, they just "suspend" their campaigning.
March 30, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Consider the alternatives: Senator Clinton says, "I hope to remain in the contest for at least another week as I assess my chances to win this nomination", or "I will be dropping out of this race in the next few weeks", or "I know I can't win the nomination, so I won't keep this going much longer", etc. What are the chances of even Kucinich or Rudolph ever saying something like that, let alone an almost successful candidate?
I think the point is that there's no chance of Obama saying such a thing. He's obviously staying in the race. No need to say it.
When a candidate has to vow that they're staying in the race it's because it's become obvious that there's no point for them to stay in the race.
March 30, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'll never happen before PA. And, unfortunately, we're all sitting around stuck in space while we wait out the three weeks until PA's primary April 22.
But we can keep surmising for fun!
March 30, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another alternative would be to ignore it because it was ludicrous suggestion.
Guess it wasn't ludicrous enough, eh?
March 30, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This post is a beautiful thing to see....because its author doesn't diss Hillary and yet the message is quite clear.
And there are links/examples.
Recommended.
March 30, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks!
March 30, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you here. The narrative will change from close race to justifications for Clinton staying in the race. That is the problem for Clinton in upcoming weeks, especially if Obama continues to lead in the polls.
March 30, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah --- but I bet you could find some "John McCain Vows to Stay in Race" headlines, too. :-(
Anyway, agree with Dana99. Think the 'normal rules' may not apply to her. OTOH, the normal realities of finances may .... There's another thread going about that, one I found pretty shocking.
March 30, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd think so, but closest I found was one about viability. I'm sure there are some that I missed, but it never became a big deal for him.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=uBq&q=%22john+McCain+Vows%22&btnG=Search
March 30, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously read, "the closest one was about Viagra."
March 31, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting --- I hadn't thought about it but in that pre-1st-primary stage, the dynamics are altogether different and it really doean't matter who is in. Then once the primaries began..... it was pretty clear from the start that he was 'viable' (as long as he could keep paying the bills). Okay, good. Now I'll re-read your post a bit more optimistically.
March 31, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't know you post on here otherwise I wouldn't have posted this:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/a-leading-indicator-of-a-doome-1.php
:-)
I also dugg it:
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/A_leading_indicator_of_a_doomed_candidacy
I appreciate all the work you do!
(I'm junglered1 on DK - they won't let us change our damn handles!)
March 30, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No worries -- I post here probably half the time.
March 30, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post, the only problem is Romney, Huckabee and Edwards live in the real world. Hillary lives in Clinton World where all bow to her whims and anyone who doesn't is ignored or stomped into silence. She is close enough to allow her to ignore and stomp. I think she genuinely thinks she can win - there is a greater than -1% chance after all. She can't face dropping out any more than she can admit to a mistake.
March 30, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Great post, the only problem is Romney, Huckabee and Edwards live in the real world. Hillary lives in Clinton World..."
Well I don't think the point of this post was to predict that she's gonna drop out any time soon. I'm certain she'll stick around at the very least through PA, and assuming she doesn't lose that, well beyond.
The point is that once a candidate is forced to insist that they are not dropping out of the race, it pretty much proves that the race is over, and the client is reduced to justifying their presence, rather than their rationale for winning.
My guess is she'll remain a candidate at least through the primaries, but unless she pulls off an unanticipated PA blowout, the narrative and superdelegate endorsements will gradually start trending toward Obama as the presumptive nominee, and we won't see any midsummer fireworks.
March 31, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have been holding on to the hope that PA can finish putting holes in her boat, but I am sure that the demographics argument will beat my hope into the ground.
Hopefully the Super Delegate trickle is moving into steady flow.
March 31, 2008 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
How can HRC not win PA ? It's got Penn written all over it.
March 31, 2008 7:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very GOOD, amk!
March 31, 2008 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Penn has screwed up everything else...
March 31, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent post.
Any politician who has not decided to quit is "in it to the end" and will stay "in it to the end" right up to the moment that they decide to quit. There is no reason to expect Clinton to be any different.
March 31, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Will she drop out on a "high note" after PA?
March 31, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
HRC's Penn victory speech = nomination concession speech?
Wouldn't that be remarkable. It would go a long way toward "unification", assuming of course that the party is in such a need.
March 31, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
This reminds me to take the vows of politicians seriously.
March 31, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah...she'll wait one more week and see if she can ride to the sky in Indiana. If so, her only irritatingly high notes will be "On West Virginia! On Kentucky! Now dash away all!"
March 31, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is Penning her hopes on winning by a very wide margin in the Great State of Pantsuitmania.
March 31, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
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