Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
7 scenarios on how the Democratic nomination ends.
Scenario 1: Hillary wins Pennsylvania's popular vote. Obama and Hillary trade victories in the remaining states primaries as is generally expected. FL and MI do not re-vote and their delegates do not count. Delegate total remains virtually unchanged. Based on leads in popular votes and pledged delegates the SD's back Obama in such overwhelming numbers that Clinton concedes. Clinton supporters feel super-delegates should have backed her but accept her concession in which she strongly endorses Obama. (probability 40%)
Scenario 2: Obama wins Pennsylvania's popular vote. Hillary concedes shortly thereafter. Little controversy here. Clinton supporters would likely accept the defeat since there would be little doubt that Obama had fairly won the nomination fairly, defeating Clinton in the last big state. Super-delegate role is insignificant. (20% probability)
Scenario 3: Hillary wins Pennsylvania and wins surprisingly in most of the remaining states. She gets the momentum back completely and has blowout victories in KY, WV, and PR while pulling off surprising narrow victories in IN, NC, and OR. She pulls within 30 pledged delegates and the super-delegates back her in a landslide giving her the nomination. Obama only concedes just before the convention when it is clear the super-delegates will not change their mind. Obama strongly asks his supporters to back Clinton and most of them do. (probability 5%)
Scenario 4: Hillary wins PA. Her campaign either sues the DNC for stripping FL and MI of their delegates or is able to win the issue in the credentials committee. Either through court order or the credentials committee, the FL and MI delegates are seated according to the primary results. Super-delegates side with Clinton in greater numbers and she wins the nomination at the convention. Obama supporters largely refuse to back Clinton.(probability 3%)
Scenario 5: Hillary wins PA and wins big in re-votes in MI and FL. She also wins surprisingly in most of the remaining states. Obama is hit with some new damning controversy and bows out of the race after many of the remaining Super-delegates endorse Hillary. Obama supporters accept the Clinton nomination but with lots of ill feelings. (probability 1%)
Scenario 6: Obama and Hillary have a near tie in the delegate count. Obama and Hillary supporters engage in outright military combat from state to state and the second American civil war begins. (probability .0001%)
Scenario 7: Obama and Hillary have a near tie in the delegate count. Howard Dean brokers a deal in which Mike Gravel is the Democratic candidate for President and Obama-Clinton will share the vice-Presidency. The Democratic Party is saved and the Gravel Presidency brings about huge job gains from rock quarries and the new national sport, rock skipping. (probability 98%) Other scenarios on how the nomination is decided?
If you enjoyed this post, please share with other readers by clinking on the 'recommend this' link.
Comments (28)
Scenario 8- The rest of the primaries are a virtual horse race with the numbers not changing much. It goes all the way to the convention where the Supers make a decision, which most supporters (watching on TV or live stream) decide to accept. Hands are held and singing can be heard, Mcain pees himself a little.
However being a dastardly bastard George bush has arranged for the nuke that went missing during an unplanned transport last summer to be detonated at the convention thus killing every Democratic politician in the united states. Except for Ted Kennedy who got a little sleepy on the way to the convention and decided to take a nap instead.
Bush then blames this on the terrorists and institutes martial law and refuses to step down as POTUS. He crowns himself supreme emperor of the super neat states of Bushmerica.
In the following horror and confusion he decides to go to war with Guam, because he once heard that a terrorist had a summer home there with a beautiful little tomato garden out back.
Guam wins the war and makes the USA a province of Guam.
Jesus comes back, decides that all this is just far too fucked up and decides to leave again. He spends the rest of eternity on "vacation" in the currently undiscovered galaxy Budonia 6.. Which has legalized Marijuana which he finds makes the whole eternity thing far more palatable. He eats a lot of cheato's and watches much Guam Idol.
(Probability 135%)
March 17, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you really overestimate the probability of scenario 2 and really underestimate the probability of scenario 4. Other than that, not bad.
March 18, 2008 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario 9- Barack Obama increases his leadin the remaining primaries. June fifth or so he accepts seating the MI and FL delegates. On the Fourth of July he also encourages the super delegates to vote their conscience on what is best for the party and the country, at the same time he releases all of his delegates and encourages ALL delegates to vote their conscience on what is best for the party and the country. Clinton campaign melts down in confusion and Barack sails the nomination and the presidency.
(100% in at least one parrallel universe)
March 18, 2008 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see Obama sailing to victory and I believe that barring a meltdown, the remaining primaries will go as they're predicted. But, if both candidates were to release their delegates and if they're both willing to accept a "dream ticket", if that what the delegates decide, then we would have a clean way to settle this race and for the party to come out stronger.
March 18, 2008 7:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your "dream ticket" sounds like a nightmare to me. If Hillary got VP OR P, she would push her way through everything and Obama would have to chain her up in the basement to get any real work done.
March 18, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't seen any recent statistics, but all along, the majority of Democrats would prefer or support a "dream ticket" (with either candidate on top) and I'm sure that the benefits of combining factions would far outweigh the loss of a handful from either side.
March 18, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its interesting that you included a few scenarios that have a near 0 probability of occurring but didn't include one that has a very real possibility of occurring. That tells me a lot.
Scenario 9. Clinton wins PA popular vote. There is a revote or seating of Fl and MI delegates. Trade offs in later states with Clinton winning enough to lead in the popular vote. Delegate count spread lessened but not changed significantly.
alt 1 Obama gets nomination. Clinton supporters largely refuse to back nomination.
alt 2 Clinton gets nomination. Obama supporters largely refuse to back nomination.
alt 3 Back room deal creates joint ticket. Supporters of the vp support the ticket with some dissatisfaction.
March 18, 2008 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Couple of things I failed to mention.
I definitely realize there are more scenarios for how this race for the nomination ends and so please write your ideas in the comments and include the probability of your scenario.
I ususally mention in TPM posts that I'm supporting Obama and so my posts come with that bias. As I've said before, I don't see how Hillary can overcome the delegate math and I think that this is the primary way that the remaining Superdelegates will decide how to cast their vote.
March 18, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot scenario 10:
The remaining votes go as predicted, neither candidate comes in with enough pledged delegates and superdelegates to win on the first vote. After a contentious brokered convention, Al Gore is selected as a consensus candidate.
March 18, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario #5 was already in trouble when I wrote this since FL had essentially said that a re-vote isn't going to happen.
Now it appears scenario #5 is completely dead as the revote in MI appears to be in serious trouble as well:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/more_on_imminent_death_of_mich.php
I just can't fathom that scenario #4 will happen, or happen successfully for Clinton. Would she seriously push a lawsuit or credentials committee fight to seat the delegates as is? The chances that she would win that would be slim to none and if she were successful it would leave the Dem Party a shell of itself. I think it's all been a lot of rhetoric so that she can say that she fought for the voters of FL and MI when Obama did little to rectify the DNC's punishment.
March 18, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the question is this: what do we want to achieve in November and how does this nomination play into this. I just posted more on this. In my view, we can win the battle and lose the war.
March 18, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny how you post off topic here when you were so fascist about keeping posters onto your own topic thread regarding Hillary voters not wanting to switch. . .
March 18, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
interesting scenarios. i was talking to a friend 20 minutes ago, and she brought up an interesting thought: what if hillary runs as an independent?
is it too far out of the question? some might see this as her only chance to run and win, and she might take the opportunity to continue to run despite not winning her party's nomination. do you think that's likely scenario?
March 18, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'll be the Clinton/Lieberman ticket. (shudder)
March 18, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
lieberman is making love to mccain. so he's out. try clinton/murtha: call it the "bitch and dirty old bastard" ticket. (ALL SAID TONGUE IN CHEEK!!!)
Scenario 3012: With the re-votes in FL and MI out, Howard Dean grows a pair and sticks to his guns. Hillary, without those two states to bolster her "Clinton Rules to Nomination Game Plan" finally realizes she can't win. She drops out of the race two weeks before PA. She and Bill meet up with Eliot and Silda Spitzer for an exciting weekend at the Bunny Ranch. (Probability: Orange on the Homeland Security scale)
March 18, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
no, I don't think that's realistic.
But neither is Mike Gravel as the nominee and yet that is scenario #7. When predicting the future, ANYTHING is possible! Given that, I'll give it a try:
Scenario #8: Florida and Michigan do not hold revotes. Obama's delegate math starts to add up and dozens and dozens of Superdelegates endorse Obama while few do likewise for Clinton. She sues the DNC in court (or more likely a Clinton voter in each state) to have the delegates seated. The basis of the lawsuits would argue that while the party can run elections, it can't disenfranchise voters (you'd hear a lot of arguements about how the Dem Party ran elections illegally in Southern states in the 1950-60s). As the lawsuits are filed, enough SDs endorse Obama where in delegate math he has captured the nomination, although it is close.
The lawsuits get their day in court but not until after the nominating convention. Hillary supporters start to get her name on ballots in states across the country in an effort to have her on the ballot in case she wins the court cases. The Hillary movement grows as people feel that the cases may win and activists in each state mobilize to get her on the ballot. Privately, she enjoys the movement while publically she says it's not coming from her campaign. Eventually though, she says she can't ignore the will of the people who want her on the ballot.
March 18, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al Gore rides into the convention on winged Pegasus and accepts the nomination.
March 18, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario # 26 (or thereabouts. Who's counting.)
3 weeks into the 7 week lag between firewall primaries, the nattering nabobs of netroots discover that they really don't give a shit about politics, they really just blog for attention. Democratic primary contest loses steam while wildly popular mutual onanism clubs take the nation by storm...
Meanwhile, the MIT freshman who cracked the IPhone discovers an algorithm that can breathe life into dead humans. Republicans move with lightning speed, publicly executing McCain at a CPAC orgy, and presenting their new nominee, the recently re-animated Ronald Reagan.
Realizing that there's only one man alive or dead that can beat Reagan, Old Guard democrats dig up J.F.K.'s remains in the middle of the night. They quickly re-animate Jack, without his brain (they're really only after his voice) and force Al Gore to accept the VP slot at gunpoint, completing the real "dream ticket." Mass mutual onanism becomes the biggest threat to economic growth in the countries history.
Reagan, dragging the bikinied bodies of Malkin and Coulter around the country by leashes, runs on a platform of simultaneous puritan virtue and virility. This strategy charms the nation, as the voters are captivated by the guts of the brazen hypocrisy, and they resent the Dream Ticket for being too weak to openly admit their inner contradictions. Reagan wins in a landslide.
Probability - its already happening.
March 18, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction, the IPhone kid went to RIT, not MIT...
March 18, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes she would.
March 18, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, she's more like Lieberman anyway. COuld be.
March 18, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gore's going to broker an Obama-Clinton ticket at the convention, and Michigan and Florida delegates get seated in full (5%)
March 18, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario 12 (the 'John Cleese' scenario): The EU, having taken note of the failed 2000 elections, the Iraq debacle and the surprising ability of the democratic (ie, the marginally-more-sane-than-the-other-party) party to cut off their collective nose to spite their collective face call on Prince Harry to lead a tank division into Washington. Britain, under the auspices of the EU (and Canada) occupy the white house and reclaim the east coast of the US. Texas rebells and leads a cohort of southern states to found a rival country (The United Territories of gun-toting ass-kickers) who continue to decimate the retaken colonies at American football, but lose horribly at rugby every year. Barack Obama founds the Bloggers advocacy party which consistantly holds 2% of parliament. Hillary Clinton becomes the first prime minister of the colonial parliaments. John McCain flees to South America and attempts to set up a petty dictatorship, but forgot they don't speak English.
March 18, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario 71: One week before the PA primary, Fox News shows a shot of some screaming fans at an Obama Rally, only to discover that Chelsea Clinton and Meghan McCain are in the crowd. The pair later come out and confess their love for Obama and for each other. Scandal ensues and both Hillary Clinton and John McCain are forced to give important speeches about Family loyalty and Homosexuality in America respectively. Hillary's speech falls flat as she takes occasional angry snipes at Bill Clinton during the speech. McCain's speech fails because his speech writers could not decide if he should be for homosexuality or against it, so he takes both positions. Obama laughs so hard at the demise of his opponents that he forgets to show up to the convention. SNL's Fred Armisen seizes the opportunity to show up at the convention pretending to be Obama, and wins the nomination. Tina Fey seizes the opportunity to marry Fred Armisen and become his running mate. Moments before the election, Fey kills Armisen and makes it look like suicide. She wins the presidency and an entire generation of Americans grows up thinking politics is comedy. (Probability 0.infinity %)
March 18, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario 13: Hillary wins PA, but not by much. Obama wins all of the remaining states while Hillary holds out for her real firewall, Puerto Rico, which Obama also wins. Michigan and Florida have no re-vote. The superdelegates declare for Obama over the early summer, thus giving him the confidence to allow the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated at the convention without fear of losing the nomination. Hillary skips out on giving a concession speech, hoping her supporters will stay home on election day in November so McBush will win and she can try again in 2012. Unfortunately, the Paul v. Clinton civil case in L.A. that is due this August, reveals Hillary and Bill's dirty dealings against Peter Paul and Stan Lee, and McCain uses the excuse to prosecute the Clinton's over Hillary's blatant FEC violations. She's unable to run for President in 2012 from her prison cell, so Obama wins handily -- in 2012.
March 18, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario #742: Hillary wins PA by 9 points. the rest of the states go as predicted. Hillary is still behind in all aspects. Florida delegates are seated but reduced by half. Michigan's delegates are split 50-50.
The supers rally behind Obama, and he wins the nomination.
Hillary does not concede, hoping to keep her supporters home in November.
March 18, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scenario #too bloody likely to joke about.
Hillary wins Pennsylvania, nets about five delegates. The two of them split the remaining races exactly as predicted. Florida and Michigan don't make a damn difference regardless of what happens. Hillary continues sniping away at Obama all the way to the convention forces a floor fight, loses and then, having kneecapped the nominee, exactly as planned, prepares to run against President McCain in 2012 blissfully believing the hatred she has incurred will die down by then.
Scenario # my worst frakkin nightmare which I deem the most probably outcome if Hillary succeeds in stealing the nomination
Hillary gets to Denver with the same delegate and vote gap she's got now and declares it a "virtual tie." By some mysterous means, gets the 2/3 of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates she needs to win and steals the nomination. Mass protests insue in Denver and across the nation, and turn into ugly riots in many cities. African Americans stay home in November and half of Obama's other supporters vote for McCain. Democratic party is split, demoralized and disintegrating like the Whigs in the 1850s. Bill Clinton blames Obama, exonorates self, for destrution of party.
March 18, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, here's one...
They both get to the convention with good reasons for expecting it to go their way. The party is so split at this point that there is only one way out...Al Gore accepts the nomination, with Edwards as his VP. Hil and Bar go back to the Senate where they both continue to do exceptional work for our country, even working together on important bills for the good of the nation. Probability 35%.
I'm a staunch Hillary supporter, but I'd buy it happily if it happened.
March 18, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment