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Turning Competitive Democratic Primaries into a Win/Win/Win Scenario
With yesterday's Super Tuesday results, the stage for the nomination process seems to be set: John McCain will be tasked with consolidating an unfriendly conservative base — one which will ultimately fall into line, but not before making him jump through some hoops — while Clinton and Obama will likely run neck-and-neck as far as Pennsylvania, and possibly all they way to the convention.
Some think the lack of a clear nominee at this point is a failure on the part of the Democratic National Committee, and this view has some merit. Conventional wisdom suggests that a party divided is a party disadvantaged. However, I believe that under the right circumstances this situation is not only advantageous, it is in fact ideal for Democrats.
Here's the crux: given the putative nomination of McCain, the best possible way for Clinton and Obama to compete is to attempt to outdo one another in defining and attacking their opponent. If this dynamic (already suggested by the speedy Oliver Willis) emerges over the coming weeks — if Democrats are able to harness the competitive energy of their primary to their overall advantage — a win/win/win dynamic will emerge.
Win #1: Maintain Activist Comity
While committed candidate activists will continue to clash as long as the primary contest remains competitive, the campaigns themselves set the tone. As we saw after the New Hampshire primary, if the candidates or their surrogates begin to engage a particular line of attack/defense, their activist base is likely to follow suit.
Grassroots activists are at their best when the general cues from their campaign empower them to engage creatively in the process. Should Obama and Clinton begin to focus on McCain, sending the signal to their supporters that they will prove their worth as nominees in doing so, the massive potential energy resident each candidates' base will be engaged towards a mutually beneficial end.
This will be quite productive in its own right (see below) as well as minimizing circular-firing-squad situations. Perhaps most importantly, it will give activist supporters something to admire in their primary opponents, laying the groundwork for an important post-nomination consolidation process.
Win #2: Drive Democratic Excitement
In contrast to activist/online support, all indications suggest that Democratic primary voters are generally pleased with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. This is a very positive situation in the big picture, and one that must be maintained.
Giving the candidates something to focus on rather than tearing one-another down obviously contributes to this dynamic. Positive messaging and a collegial exploration of policy details are also helpful in this respect, but continuing to place the focus on "winning in November" will be very important.
It's crucial to note that there's a difference between a "who can best take down McCain" contest and a theoretical argument about "electability." The notion here is not that the candidates should spar about this in abstract. They should be actually putting whatever theories they have into practice, field-testing lines of attack and messaging for the general election.
In terms of what Democrats in general are looking for, "getting on with the business of winning" is a guaranteed crowd-pleaser, and should continue to drive turnout, fundraising, and down-ticket activity.
Win #3: Define The Narrative
The single greatest asset to a McCain candidacy is his friendly relationship with the Press and his softly-positive public image. With his current frontrunner status unlikely to change, and the likelihood of a drawn-out contest on the Democratic side, there's a very real danger that McCain will be able to clinch his party's nomination, recoup, and substantially overcome his two greatest weaknesses — a lack of money, and some bad blood with elements of the GOP base — while the Democratic campaign narrative remains stuck on "Obama vs. Clinton."
McCain's purported strengths need to be attacked early and often if he's to be soundly defeated. New narratives must emerge in the media, and soft support must be met with hard facts. This is a battle that can be won, but Democrats need to work hard to do so, starting now.
With two candidates competing to see who can do that the best, the possible ranges of attack as well as the overall volume will be maximized. This allows Democrats go on the offense, even as their own nomination process continues.
Indeed, harnessing the competitive energy of the nomination process has a great potential to produce the best offensive tactics. Even in the best of all circumstances it will be difficult for any individual campaign or 527 to overcome the press's favoritism for McCain. This is a task which requires the kind of energy and innovation that competitive systems excel at delivering.
By putting competition to work in solving this problem — by crowdsourcing the attack and engaging the entire universe of activists and primary voters in the production and evaluation of counter-narratives — the potential nominees can do their Party (and the country) a favor, while still ruthlessly pursuing their own individual goals. Just win/win/win, baby.













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