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The End of the GOP Campaign--Does Obama Benefit?
Romney has now officially withdrawn from the GOP nomination process, leaving McCain a clear path to the nomination. Huckabee cannot stand in McCain's way alone.
There is a possible collateral effect to the Democratic campaign. Most of the upcoming primaries and caucuses are open to independents as well as Democrats. With the GOP race pretty much over, it is very likely that an increased number independents and even some Republicans might cross over and vote in the Democratic Party's process.
This result should give Obama a big boost. Just about every exit poll I have seen has given the edge in independents to Obama over Clinton. It is very possible that as early as Saturday this effect will be strong. This is definitely a trend worth watching.
Comments (5)
Very interesting point. Thanks for bringing it up.
February 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may be good for Barack, but it will be bad all around for the Democratic Party. McCain has already started running a general election campaign. With Romney suspending his campaign, and Huckabee soon to follow, he will have an edge going into November.
It has been demonstrated Barack preforms better when he has more time to campaign in a particular state. If he were to win the nomination, he would be at a disadvantage with only 8 weeks to campaign in (potential) key swing states, such as Missouri, Kansas, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio.
If Clinton were the nominee, she likewise would be at a strong disadvantage. She would need to persuade young Obama supporters (age 18 - 24) to repeat their record turnout on election day to offset moderate conservatives and independents she would lose to McCain.
There isn't a win-win situation. Also, with animosity growing between Obama and Clinton supporters, the Democratic Party will have to assure the nomination process is perceived to be fair during the convention.
The advantages the Democrats do have are a lot of money, and a legion of liberal bloggers and media pundits to counter the Faux News and conservative talk radio disinformation. It'll be a shaky general election, and I believe it will be a lot closer than many Democrats are expecting, possibly dependent on the Democrats winning in Ohio, and Florida. But dissing the Florida primary delegates and a popular governor (Gov. Crist) backing McCain, will probably have to rely on Ohio. They may even lose some seats in the house and senate regardless of who is the nominee.
February 7, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that it might cause some problems in the long run, since McCain will can now aim solely against the Democratic candidates. There will also certainly need to be a calming period once one wins over the over.
As for the general, it is still pretty early, but I would say that Ohio is primed for a pickup. They had their own huge Democratic wave in 2006, and the new Democratic governor is still very popular there. I definitely like the Dems' chances of picking up Ohio, regardless of who the nominee is.
February 7, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some Republicans could cross over and vote for Hillary.. Seems they'd rather face her than Obama, since she's a uniter, i.e. she unites the GOP...
February 7, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is much better candidate to face McCain that Hillary so his electability should rise. Obama can compete for independents and turn the race into a generational battle.
February 7, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
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