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Super-math = the burning of the last firewall
According to an archive of CNN's articles on the superdelegate count, Hillary Clinton's SD lead has shrunk from 104 on January 3rd (before any votes were cast) to a current low of 62. Perhaps most telling, and not unsurprising, in the last 15 days she has had a net gain of only 4 SDs, while Obama has gained 20. Given that, I guess it's also not a surprise that the Clinton campaign would begin to urge caution to SDs that they don't move too quickly to take sides (just days after touting the importance of SDs in selecting the nominee).
Here's a chart showing the decline in Hillary's SD lead this year (kind of reminds you of the graph's of Rudy's polling numbers).
Below are three snapshots of the SD count this year:
January 3, CNN: Clinton SD lead of 104







Comments (4)
Arg. This is the second time my post has been cut off or didn't show up at all. Sorry, yall, not sure why. Here's the whole post:
According to an archive of CNN's articles on the superdelegate count, Hillary Clinton's SD lead has shrunk from 104 on January 3rd (before any votes were cast) to a current low of 62. Perhaps most telling, and not unsurprising, in the last 15 days she has had a net gain of only 4 SDs, while Obama has gained 20. Given that, I guess it's also not a surprise that the Clinton campaign would begin to urge caution to SDs that they don't move too quickly to take sides (just days after touting the importance of SDs in selecting the nominee).
Here's a chart showing the decline in Hillary's SD lead this year (kind of reminds you of the graph's of Rudy's polling numbers).
Below are three snapshots of the SD count this year:
January 3, CNN: Clinton SD lead of 104
Clinton: 154 superdelegates
Obama: 50 superdelegates
Feb. 12, CNN: Clinton SD lead of 78
Clinton: 234 superdelegates
Obama: 156 superdelegates
February 27, CNN: Clinton SD lead of 62
Clinton: 238 superdelegates
Obama: 176 superdelegates
Here's another interesting twist on the Superdelegate math from the folks at http://demconwatch.blogspot.com: they breakdown the SD support by position (either Senator, House member, DNC, etc). With elected officials, the count is almost exactly even:
Governors: Hillary 10, Obama 11
Senators: Hillary 12, Obama 14
Reps.: Hillary 72, Obama 68
But then look what happens with the DNC supers:
DNC: Hillary 136, Obama 84
When you you add in the DNC members, you basically get her entire SD lead. I haven't heard any media break this down as they have at Dem Con Watch, but it's all interesting to me.
Add this to the growing list of reasons that on March 5th, this nomination process is likely much closer to being over.
February 27, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Super-delegates are only an integral part of the process if they anoint Hillary Clinton. Didn't you know that?
February 28, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
But who diesn't matter ater the Superdelegates? They're running out of people to dismiss...
February 28, 2008 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I should also note that the folks at http://demconwatch.blogspot.com are pretty well doing what I've tried to lay out here. I missed this "Delegate History Tracker" page which pretty well shows the timeline of SD support in the campaign: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html
Also, it's worth noting that the majority of SDs have not endorsed and it's just hard to fathom that they would in great numbers endorse Clinton considering the kind of phenominal campaign run by Obama, be it with winning states, winning delegates, 1 million donors, awesome organizing, and a great message on issues that resonates with a broad swath of voters.
February 28, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
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