I am an Obama fanboi, but the way pledged delegates are selected in Texas is so convoluted, statewide polls are almost meaningless. Except for possible bragging rights and for spin potential.

I'm waiting for the take of "Fly on the Wall."

ARG polls are crap, unfortunately. :( They have been the absolute worse this primary season.

Let's get to work for Obama!

Here's the thing about Texas. Delegates will be allocated by congressional district, and how many delegates each district is worth is based on turn-out in the 2004 Presidential primary and 2006 gubernatorial primary, and, in fact, their are only 3 "big districts" (worth 8, 7, and 6 points respectively in Dallas, Houston, and Austin). They are all demographically very strong for Obama, largely African-American and capable of going the way of Wash, DC. That means he could feasibly get 6-2 or 7-1 in the first, 5-2 or 6-1 in the second, and 4-2 or 5-1 in the 3rd. That's as much as a 15 point advantage in just those districts.

Further, of the 6 heavily-hispanic districts where Clinton is expected to thrive, 4 are only worth 4 delegates, and as such very likely to break 2-2 and earn her no advantage. That's 7 of the 31 districts. Even if Clinton so dominates every other district that she averages a 1-pt advantage per district (unlikely give the large # of other 4-delegate districts around), she still at best will probably only end up with a total advantage 9 -12 delegates. If Obama is competitive with her in the popular vote and/or the Hispanic population, she's in trouble, and there's a good chance her delegate lead is less than 5.

And that's for only 126 of Texas' 191 delegates. The final 67 are apportioned by caucus, which requires the organization and enthusiasm to get your voters back to their polling location a 2nd time to gather and declare publicly their support. That format favors Obama to make up even more ground.

The truly untold story this news cycle has been just how poor a Texas "firewall" is for Clinton just logistically. There's just no chance for her to make up huge ground on pledged delegates there.