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McCain's Strength, Obama's Achilles and the September Surprise

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For various reasons, I will never be an enthusiastic Obama supporter (yes, I am, in fact, a lower order of human being). However, since he is well on his way to winning the Democratic nomination, my main concern is his ability to overcome McCain's great strengths.  Yes, strengths.  
1.  McCain is on the wrong side of every issue, yet he polls almost even with Obama.  He gives big bear hugs to the most disastrous war in American history, and he polls almost even with Obama.  He promises more such disastrous wars, yet he polls almost even with Obama.  (Of course, he bests Clinton).  This is electoral strength, not weakness.  When the public vehemently disagrees with you, yet so many still prefer you as President, you hold a strong hand.
2. McCain is credited in the popular mind as "Mr. National Security."  Americans believe (wrongly of course) that he will "keep us safe."
3. George Bush and his minions hold the executive branch.  They hold the power to tell the American people that we are in danger, or that we are safe.  Considering McCain's supposed national security strength, where on that scale do you think we will be come September '08?  I think we'll be very "Orange."
3.  I do not have Mr. Obama's "faith".  When you've seen folks who have shared meals in your home, whom you've called "friend" for years... when you see them spit the word "nigger" in your presence (I am black) or revile "them" when their egos or worldviews are startled by a challenge from blacks, then you begin to realize that there is something deep and strong in the American psyche that can be called up, demon-like, with a mere flick of the wrist. 
Clinton can't call that demon. Anyone who thinks the racially-tinged political panty-raid in S. Carolina was an attempt is utterly ignorant of America's historical racial and political realities.
4.  What happens when the threat level jumps to Orange in September (please don't forget who is in charge of the executive branch right now), and the choice comes down to white Americans trusting a black man to keep them safe from brown men, or trusting another white man to do so?    
I just don't have Sen. Obama's faith in Americans' ability to resist the demon that has wreaked such havoc throughout hundreds of years of American history.  I believe in my soul that Mr. McCain and his political team will summon that demon with their blood if need be in order to hold onto power.  
I would love to see signs from the Obama team that they have the tools to slay that demon in the face of a challenge on national security grounds.  


Comments (7)

Last night my wife and I were watching Sicko again, and I was struck by the interview with one of Britain's early labor leaders, explaining that socialized medicine was something that Britons pulled together out of the horrors of WWII. Going through the fire of that war brought them together in a way this country has never been able to do. Some day we will have a black man for a President. Why not now? I don't believe Senator Obama is ready to be President. I believe Senator Clinton is far better qualified to lead, and, believe it or not, to best a man like McCain. But you know what? For me, this is the end of a journey I began when I sat down at a lunch counter in Austin, Texas in 1961 and said: I'd like to eat here if everyone can. Senator Obama is not my first choice, but I'm going to make him do.

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I would be careful of overanalysing and giving too much credence to polls that are to a large degree name driven.

The Election is a long way away and people aren't really concentrating on it that much yet.

I'm not saying that these things should be ignored, just don't bet anything on the electorate in November looking like the polls now.

While it probably won't get a lot of play, Obama actually won teh first round of National Security against McCain -- http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/02/mccain_soft_on_al_qaeda.html

Obama will never take the mantle as the better general or commander and chief, but he can push for a significant standsstill where as long as he comes off as compentent, it won't hurt him.


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Obama will easily win if he runs on a platform of leaving Iraq in 6 months, of not earlier. For some reason I haven't seen or heard him commit himself to such a position so far. He gave a speech the other day about ensuring the troops have "proper rotations" which sounds like "Iraq forever lite".

In short, if he wants to win, he needs to run as the "anti-Bush" on all fronts and scrap all that unity nonsense. The GOP is not our friend.

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Obama or somebody needs to get McCain's Iraq-forever bluster out there and keep it out there. McCain made it over the top on the strength of war-exhausted voters who think they've mind-melded with him and that he feels their pain. It's no moon launch project to get his real position across. Then we'll see what scares people.

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Another thing we're forgetting. Has McCain or Cindy McCain really been vetted?

A nice article here concerning some mid-east history in light of McCain's glowing endorsement for the wonderful country of Pakistan.

http://www.juancole.com/2008/02/mccains-holiday-from-history-in.html


I'm more worried about people who cower in fear over "Karl Rove and the Republican Machine" (which sounds like a prog band) than I am about people who are genuinely concerned about terrorism or people who will act like your friends and then betray you.

Friends, Family, Lovers... These people betray one another all the time. It didn't just start when one of your white "so-called" friends called you the N-word. It happened before any language anywhere in the world had a word for betrayal.

Terrorism is real... People are killed every day in acts of terror. People use fear and intimidation every day to convince people that they shouldn't go outside or shouldn't feel comfortable going to a certain part of the city or shouldn't pull the lever for one candidate over another. President Bush himself commits an act of terror every time he uses September 11th to manipulate Congress, the courts, and the citizenry. I don't want to get blown up in a pizzeria in Jacksonville anymore than I want to get blown up in a pizzeria in Jerusalem. I also don't want to stop going to pizzerias or be so afraid to go to Jerusalem that I let my well-meaning loved ones talk me out of it.

Believe in yourself. Believe in your ability to be the change you want to see in the world. Believe in your capacity to expect more from people than they have shown you thus far. America isn't about fear, it's about freedom. Don't let Karl Rove give you the former in exchange for the latter. If he convinces you that no matter who you vote for, he'll find a way to destroy him, he's making you weak. That doesn't make him strong... He is only a simple man. If he drinks too much tequila, he'll get drunk and pass out. If he eats asparagus, he'll have have smelly piss. President Bush calls him Turd Blossom. That's all you need to know about Karl Rove.

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For various reasons, I will never be an enthusiastic Obama supporter (yes, I am, in fact, a lower order of human being).

Interesting post, Leonce. You might have done better without the snarky cheap shot, but whatever. Just sayin'.

That aside -- Your analysis of racism is scary and hard to argue with. And you can add to that the "OMG BARACK HUSSEIN OSAMA OBAMA IS A CLOSET RADICAL MUSLIM WHO WENT TO A MADRASSA WHERE HE LEARNED TO HATE AMERICA AND WILL DESTROY AMERICAN CIVILIZATION AND HE DOESN'T SAY THE PLEDGE AND HE WILL TURN US INTO A JIHADIST CALIPHATE AND DOOM US ALL1111!!!1" meme that's already circulating virally in Rethugland.

On the "national security" thing, well, we'll just have to point out that the Republicans are, um, wrong, and nothing they have done since Sept 2001 has actually improved safety in the US. It would have been much -- much -- easier if the Democrats had, from (ahem) Day One, called the Rethugs' bluff and identified this misbegotten military adventure for what it was and explained why it would make us less, rather than more, safe; and otherwise confronted head-on the Republican scaremongering in the service of Perpetual War. To his credit, BHO was far ahead of HRC on this, although he has backtracked (somewhat) in the Senate. There's something about truth, strongly and consistently stated, that can blow away lies. But oh, well, they didn't, and that may well be a weakness going forward. Exit polls from WI of course showed that the economy is top on Americans' concerns. That could certainly shift somewhat if the Bush regime raises the Terrah Alert, as it is almost certain to to, although the economy is so bad, and getting worse, that I suspect it will remain a much stronger contender for Americans' attention than it was in, say, 2004. And to that end, Obama is far better positioned than HRC to explain the truth: that this occupation has cost at least half a trillion dollars already, is costing over $12B a month, and describing what that could buy in the US economy (like healthcare, for example, and ending dependence on, uh, Iraq's main export, which ain't turnips.)

The key on the national security issue in the fall, IMHO, will be differentiating ourselves from the Rethuglicans, rather than trying to be like them. That's a losing battle. Wasn't it Truman who said that if you give people a choice between a Republican and a Republican, they'd take the Republican every time?

Of course McCain will call up the demon that was used so successfully against him in 2000 (remember when Bush/Rove successfully planted in the public mind the idea that McCain had -- gasp -- a black baby? Again, we have to be ready for it, know that it will "take" in some segment of the American public's mind, and hope that it won't, especially among the younger voters whom Obama is drawing out (and all indications I've seen suggest that the younger voters are much less likely to buy this particular brand of bat pucky.)

Remember, though, one thing that you mentioned briefly -- and that's that between BHO and HRC, polling suggests so far that McCain beats HRC and is only even with BHO. And the reason for that is that conservatives hate the Clintons. It's irrational, it's unfair, but it exists every bit as much as the racism you describe so strongly. I suspect that very few people who would refuse to vote for a "n****r" would vote for "that b***h" either. Those selfsame conservatives tend to hate McCain too, of course, but I think (and my impressions from what I've read suggest) that they might just stay home if it's a McCain-Obama race, but just might hold their noses and vote McCain if it's a McCain-Clinton race.

I think you've done a great job in identifying just a few of the challenges we will face in the fall. We need to get them out, face them squarely, prepare for them, and crush them through superior organization and a liberal (I love that word) dose of the truth. And work our asses off.

Cheers,

g

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