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Make your predictions for March 4th, if you dare.
All right, I've seen a lot of people (me too) on TPM throwing around predictions for what will happen next Tuesday in Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. There's also been plenty of speculation about what will happen after those results come in.
Now's the time to make it official, put your predictions in this post and you can return Wednesday morning and gloat about how right you were or just lurk and pretend you're not online because you were way off.
Directions: First give the numbers for the 4 states' votes and then give the fallout for what happens in the campaign. So here's my prediction:
March 4th results
Texas: Obama 54% - 46%
Ohio: Clinton 52% - 48%
Vermont: Obama 65% - 35%
Rhode Island: Clinton 53% - 47%
The fallout: Clinton celebrates in Ohio and puts as much positive spin as possible, making a big deal about the start of a comeback. The Clinton camp on March 5th says they'll win in Pennsylvania too and that the Texas was a tough state because of the expense of running in a state that large.
The Obama camp immediately begins pressing hard on superdelegates to come over to Obama to end this before it gets really ugly (i.e. red phone ad from Hillary). Before Pennsylvania Obama gains dozens of new SD endorsements and Hillary a handful.
The media hound the Clinton campaign with questions about the near impossible chances that she can overcome Obama's delegate count. Clinton camp says they can win in Pennsylvania (the new firewall) and turn it around if MI and FL hold caucuses this spring and seat their delegates.
Hillary loses badly in Wyoming on March 8th and in Mississippi on March 11th.
MI and FL parties publicly announce they will not hold caucuses. Obama gets dozens more SD endorsements and pulls even in SD count.
Hillary concedes before Pennsylvania votes.
Comments (34)
Pretty much agree with your results. But for the sake of argument:
TX: Obama 52-48
OH: Clinton 55-45
VT: Obama 65-35
RI: Clinton 60-40
Fallout: She wants to carry on, much as you say. But with the handwriting on the wall, the party takes action in the form of prominent voices endorsing Obama and a big drum beat about holding her to her own terms: i.e. she didn't carry the two firewall states and that's that.
She withdraws by Friday, March 7. If not on her own initiative, then as a result of serious (private) pressure by the big guns in the party.
February 29, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is funny, but I don't think that Hillary will get out of the race without completely expending all of her political currency and increasing her already high negative numbers in the general populace.
I didn't think there could be a bigger loser than Rudy Giuliani or Howard Dean, but that will be eclipsed as this drags on, and "if" she prevails, she will energize the GOP behind McCain.
This idea that the Clintons will just toss in the towel, is laughable. This contest has all the material for a mini-drama dragging into the Democratic convention, and beyond!
February 29, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What was she saying last summer? "In it to win it." In other words, winning at all costs, even if it tears the party apart.
Nice to know she's so magnanimous.
February 29, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Laughing, it is whistling in the dark while walking alone by a country cemetary to imagine that anything short of Obama sticking a stake through the heart of the undead will cause this episode of melodrama wishful thinking to pan up.
Yelling at zombies to leave you alone and have a veggie burger and imagining Hillary will concede in less than a week from now, both implausable plots and scenarios.
March 1, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, I'll bite. Totally improbable, but I'll take the odds....
Texas: Obama 57-42
Ohio: Obama 50 Clinton 49
Vermont: Obama 60 Clinton 39
Rhode Island: Clinton 53 Obama 46
Undecideds break late for Obama, giving him a narrow victory, and he wins comfortably in Texas in surprisingly heavy turnout. Clinton's margin in Rhode Island gets cut because of Obama's late visit this week. Clinton drops out on the 6th.
February 29, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
5 more BO endorsements today. But as everyone knows they don't count on the 29th of feb.
February 29, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The above scenarios seem about right. My prediction is that the Clinton campaign will last no more than two more weeks, when Obama continues his streak of winning primaries. I would predict she withdraws on the 5th, but I see her as too stubborn to do that so soon. In fact she is toast even now.
February 29, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fool's errand:
TX: Obama by 8 points, big delegate haul
OH: Obama by 2
RI: Clinton by 6 (the streak ends!)
VT: Obama by 31
Withdrawal on the 5th.
February 29, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes - Rhode Island - the new Clinton firewall....
February 29, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other question is how the delegates are going to come out. That's not answered for TX by a simple allocation of voting percentages. If Obama goes 54/46 I'd suggest that means he takes 54% of the 186 delegates decided in the traditional primary, or 100 delegates to 86. If he performs as usual in the caucus part, he probably gets 65-70% of the remaining 42 delegates, or another 28 or so. By that estimate, they split TX 128/100. Can HRC make up that deficit in OH and RI?
Projecting with your figures, looking at 444 delegates up for grabs, Obama/Clinton:
Ohio: 77/84
RI: 13/19
VT: 15/8
TX: 128/100
Obama would bring in 233 delegates to HRC's 211. Even using a straight percentage against the 228 TX delegates (a 123/105 split), your numbers would produce an total of 228/216 for O/HRC.
Leaving the biggest question... would either size victory for O be to end HRC's run?
February 29, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should have added the third option of the delegate result. You get bonus points.
I would say also that the Clinton camp will downplay delegate numbers, point to lots of superdelegates still out there and to Ohio if she wins there, trying to maek the narrative about her comeback.
If this is the scenario, then it'll be interesting to see what the MSM is saying that night - is it the vote totals or the delegate count? I think at first it's just the matter of the winner of the popular vote and it'll take 12-24 hours for the reality of the delegate totals to sink in for the press and for Clinton.
February 29, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton will file suit against the Texas voting system for Dems and will claim that the outcome of that suit should be awaited before superdelegates bolt for the gate. She'll then point to Rhode Island and Ohio as the "start" of her comeback and will further beg and barter...
She will not go gentle into that good night.
February 29, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you, I bet she continues after the TX, OH, and VT loses, even if she claims a win or tight race in Ohio and RI. Your assumption of more "decorum" issues will probably cripple her political career and effectively end the Clinton machine.
I think McCain will accrue many of the newly registered voters and the voter group specifically that Obama does well with.
What has not been discussed is the issue of Clinton's high negative image where she evokes strong numbers in voters who simply oppose her, in contrast to the argument that this is a democratic choice.
If the Republicans get out the vote for Hillary I see no area that the GOP cannot out manuever her in November.
But yes, she will attempt to marginalize the TX outcome similar to the way that the NV caucuses were handled, and that act will alienate the million contributors to Obama in November.
It will be interesting to say the least, and really it is the democatic talking point that the last debate was the last debate.
I'll go a step further, laughing.. I want to see the Democratic convention deliver to Hillary. That is debacle material that cannot be contrived or scripted. Looking at how the GOP is contributing I would say that McCain has a chance if Hillary wins the party nomination, and little to none if she loses.
February 29, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I had no idea how bizarre it is," Clinton told reporters this week.
Doesn't say much for all of Clinton's talk of experience and being prepared, especially considering that her husband was elected President twice. How could she not have known?
I know how: She does know. Suing late in the game over rules that are equally applied to all participants is ridiculous enough without admitting that you knew these were the rules all along.
Everyone in the Clinton camp is busy trying to convince everyone else that they've been fooled when, in fact, their Emperor wears no clothes.
So who's really drinking the Kool-Aid?
March 1, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
No one betting on a Clinton comeback yet.
Anyone out there want to predict Hillary wins OH, TX, and RI? And if so, is that enough to get her back in it?
February 29, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Based upon polls to date, I don't think she'll win Texas. Ohio looks like a Missouri-style squeaker that she could take, but not by much. Rhode Island, thus far, is pure Hillary-Land. Vermont appears to be Obama's.
All in all, she'll claim it's a tie, even if her delegate count is nowhere near what she needs. She'll go so far as to claim it's the start of a comeback after a long dry spell with 11 straight Obama wins. Obama should claim that he did really well with BOTH McCain and Clinton trying to knock his head off, and that this portends good things for him come November. He may snag enough delegates to worry loads of Clinton staffers despite their public grins.
By the way, my gut feeling is that Howard Dean might play into the breaking of a tie at convention time, should it be needed. Who but Obama has been showing off the marvelous efficacy of Dean's 50-state-strategy? Who knows what strings are pulled by whom come convention time?
Well, fascinating stuff, no matter what us armchair analysts think!
February 29, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
no way it goes all the way to the convention before strings go from being gently pulled on to being yanked.
February 29, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
On March 5th:
Mark Penn declares that PA is really the firewall.
HRC campaign immediately sues PA for not further extending deadline to make sure HRC can get all her delegates.
Clinton campaign reminds African-Americans that Obama isn't really one of them as his mother was a white woman.
HRC will visit an American Flag Pin factory for photo-op.
And idiotic will remind all of us that:
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!
March 1, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget the other side of the argument, provided by Stanley Crouch, that Obama isn't even black like African Americans.
March 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Firstly,
IF she comes back, all Dems should vote for her regardless. You CANNOT SERIOUSLY consider voting for McCain in that case!!!!
Secondly,
she might win Ohio by 5 points.
In TX, latest CNN poll has them at
Obama 53.5-46.5 vs Clinton 49.5-42.5
other two don't matter, although RI might be psychological food.
You do the math, literally.
But WAIT:
What if Bill Clintons statement, that she can't win unless she wins Ohio and Texas was really an indication that she will quit if that happens?
The CEO
March 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will NOT vote for McCain! He's a warmonger!
I will NOT vote for Clinton! She's a warmonger!
March 1, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's my thoughts:
TX: Obama 55 Clinton 45
OH: Obama 52 Clinton 50
VT: Obama 67 Clinton 25
RI: Clinton 55 Obama 40
Obama will end up with more delegates on the night.
Fallout: Clinton will start pursuing TX lawsuit, Mi/Fl. Edwards, Bloomberg, and Richardson endorse Obama and SD's start to follow. She bows out March 7.
Then again, this is way more optmistic than I'm use to.
March 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's my thoughts:
TX: Obama 55 Clinton 45
OH: Obama 52 Clinton 50
VT: Obama 67 Clinton 25
RI: Clinton 55 Obama 40
Obama will end up with more delegates on the night.
Fallout: Clinton will start pursuing TX lawsuit, Mi/Fl. Edwards, Bloomberg, and Richardson endorse Obama and SD's start to follow. She bows out March 7.
Then again, this is way more optmistic than I'm use to.
March 1, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
ohio does a Right Guard commercial. We give 110% ...
March 1, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win Texas by 8-12 points.
Clinton will win Ohio by 2-3 points.
The super delegates will end this by throwing their support behind Obama. Wolfson, Penn, et al will complain bitterly, but Hillary will accept her defeat gracefully and pledge her full and unequivocal support to John McCain.
March 1, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas: O55 - C45
Ohio: Toss up.
Vermont: O62 - C38
But the really fascinating race is in RI - perhaps because fascination is engendered by ignorance. We have so little hard information. I'll call it Clinton - but only by two or three: C53 - O47.
Clinton bows out by the morning of the 6th. She's neither the devil incarnate (as so many want to believe, once preference and "My Team!" enter any race) or stupid. She's just kind of a Yuppie - and Bill's pushing her for his own reasons.
My BIG call on the fallout from this:
Hillary files for divorce before Christmas of this year - but, as a party player, not until after the general.
March 1, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to post something very similar, but you said it first. This is the most likely scenario.
March 1, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Laughing, see you here on the 7th after she goes on TV saying the wisdom of the super delegates must be heard, that the TX delegates must be looked at, and that neither Obama or herself have the votes and that it must be decided at the convention.
And then a long drawn out mud-sling as Hillary awaits and hopes a mistake on the part of Obama.
See you here on the 7th. Hillary will say that the rest of the country hasn't voted and that she hasn't come this far to give up now.
March 1, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
nah, that's trolling, dillu. See YOU here on the morning of the SIXTH!
But seriously.
What will you do if she bows out gracefully?
There is NOWAY she's gonna mudsling or do some legal action or whatever.
She IS, after all, smart. And not Evil.
This could have a very happy ending by her conceding live to Obama, both on cell phones live, talking about it ...
They really should do some live high tech conceding.
Make everybody go 'Awww' and dream of an Obama/Clinton politcal lovefest\ticket ...
March 1, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clean sweep for Obama.
If Clinton doesn't immediately give signs of capitulation, the Democratic heavens will thunder, the Clinton campaign team will quake, Hillary will get the message, cry -- for real this time -- and then shout, "Go, Barack!"
March 1, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
TX: BHO 56, HRC 44
OH: BHO 52, HRC 48
VT: BHO 66, HRC 32
RI: BHO 50.5, HRC 49.5
March 1, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
hillary wins Ohio by 5 points, loses everywhere else
bows out on the 7th
March 1, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at the patterns in early voting in Texas, I think that Obama wins Texas 60 - 40.
Ohio I really think is going to go to Obama 50.2 to 49.8
Rhode Island is rapidly closing, but remains in the Clinton camp 55-45
..and Vermont will go to Obama big-time 67 - 33.
I won't even pretend to be able to prognosticate what the delegate distribution will be, suffice it to say that Obama's lead will increase a bit.
Clinton pushes forward to Pennsylvania, but withdraws once poll numbers close and Super-delegates begin to jump ship in dramatic numbers. The race ends a few days before Pennsylvania primary.
March 1, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will get the most delegates from Texas,perhaps despite a small HRC popular lead.
HRC will win Ohio by at least 7 points, say
54 to 46. RI for HRC , VT for Obama.
HRC will stay in the race. Indeed will stay in
even if she doesn't win either Texas or Ohio.
If she does actually win the popular vote in both
Texas and Ohio , she'll be the candidate. Somehow.
BTW I voted for Obama.
March 1, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
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