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Kosovo and the Spy Satellite

I just saw the Navy video of the missile that took out the US spy satellite this week. While it should make us all feel safer that we won't be harmed by errant satellites, I couldn't help but put the strike in a larger global context.
It has been a week now since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, and through the week we have seen glimpses of how this isn't going over well with Russia and especially Serbia. Not that they are surprised or anything, because Kosovar independence has been coming for a while now.
My concern, though, is that shooting down the satellite (and some out there are skeptical that it was even necessary) could have been more of a warning shot for Putin to chill out and let the Kosovo issue alone. Bush is way out of his league here: South Korea and Iran are challenges, but Putin sits at the adult table, and I'm not sure Bush can cowboy his way out of it. Nor Cheney for that matter. Putin won't screw around with these clowns.
Why should this seemingly inconsequential piece of real estate get everyone in a huff, anyways? Aside from being a land of Slavic ethnic/cultural pride, it's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Let's not forget, this is where Francis Ferdinand was shot, starting the chain reaction hat got us World War I.
I know this isn't coming off at all coherent or well-developed, but I haven't seen these dots connected this week, and I think they should be. Maybe Senator Clinton or Obama can address it within the context of nonproliferation or improving America's standing in the world. Anything to avoid the mistakes of 1914.


Comments (1)

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Well, Kosovo is of interest because of the attempted Serb genocide there in 1999. Both US and EU are heavily involved there, and interested in having a peaceful ultimate resolution of the conflict. However, one thing is clear: Serbs all but forfeit their claim to that province once they attempted to ethnically cleanse its population. It was all but inevitable that Kosovo would become independent sooner or later, and I suppose 9 years of undefined limbo status was enough. Maybe at some point these two states will reunify, more likely they will both become members of the EU, but forcing Kosovo Albanians to live under Serb sovereignty was just not in the cards, and everyone concerned knew it. The Serb minority in Kosovo is obviously an issue, but that's what the EU/NATO force there is for. The Serbs, for their part, would not tolerate a NATO force on their own sovereign territory to ensure Kosovars' security, which made the return of Kosovo to Serbia an untenable proposition.

Russians will learn to live with it. Serbs will too, particularly since the EU is in a position to sweeten the deal (and, in fact, I view the Serb "outrage" as little more than an attempt to extract economic aid out of the EU). We are nowhere near a 1914-type scenario. Russians did not go to (nuclear) war over Kosovo in 1999, and they will not do so now. Their main concern is not "pan-Slavic ties" or some other such nonsense but the simple fact they fear Kosvo independence may set a precedent to be applied at a later date to Chechnya, in fact this is sometimes referred to in Russian media as the "Kosovo scenario" in discussions of Chechnya.

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