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Hillar Can't Win The General, END OF STORY!
I feel like I might be taking crazy pills here, but why is no one mentioning the painfully obvious fact that the latest polls have shown that Hillary can't win Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania or Iowa in the general election against McCain, while Obama carries all of these comfortable. Hillary can barely carry New Hampshire, and all indications are that increased Republican turnout on election day would finish her off there as well. It is getting to the point where I'm not sure if she can carry any states aside from maybe New York (I haven't seen any polls recently from California, Massachusetts or New Jersey). Juxtapose this with Obama, who according to the polls can not only carry all blue states, but also carries red states like Colorado and Nevada against McCain. This should be the end of the story, period. We have an easy choice here: do we want to win in November, or do we want to lose? It IS that simple.
Read more:
http://thepersonalispolitical.tumblr.com/post/26659785
Comments (17)
It looks like you can add Virginia to that list:
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VA-Pres
Feb 19 SurveyUSA
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%
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VA-Pres
Feb 19 SurveyUSA
Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45%
February 19, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Hillary doesn't have to actually win any of the contests, she is the chosen one. She can do no wrong. She will be queen by God's hand, by hook or by crook. (wink)
February 19, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just meanspirited and childish.
February 19, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree with this. And it is shown in poll after poll after poll. They tell me this kind of poll don't matter much, because Obama's negatives are likely to go up as the campaign goes on. But I do not see Hillary's getting any better, and wait until the republicans get hold of all these stories of Bill mixing charities and business in Kazahstan (with uranium mining, nothing else).
February 19, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she can win in the general election. But I wouldn't bet on it. I think McCain-Clinton would be a very close election.
The much bigger problem is what a Clinton nomination would do to the down ticket progressives and Democrats across the country. Because of her very high negativity ratings, she'll have base republicans out in big numbers and we'll be seeing GOP gains in purple and red states. Obama on the other hand, will greatly expand Democratic control and we'll see nationwide shift to the left.
There's no way that Obama will lose to McCain in November. I don't need a poll to tell me that. But the polls can be a useful gauge of voters feelings for the moment.
February 19, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've actually written a fair amount about this very topic, what I call the "Hillary Effect" and the "Obama Effect", but it is barely ever spoken of, which also blows my mind, because perhaps more important than the presidency are our majorities in Congress, and in local elections all over the country. If Hillary in nominated, we are screwed in all purple and red states and districts, and obviously in some light blue areas too.
"The Obama Effect versus The Hillary Effect"
http://thepersonalispolitical.tumblr.com/post/26284440
"Real World Applications of the Hillary Effect"
http://thepersonalispolitical.tumblr.com/post/26724570
February 19, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with all of you. I find it painful to think that the Democratic Party is about to shoot itself in the face if Hillary becomes the nominee. Although Obama, once Edwards, is my favorite candidate, I will vote for any democrat who can win. Anecdotes as well as polls clearly point to Obama as the one who can do this. At this point I feel a vote for Hillary is a vote for McCain.
Somewhere I read 10 predictions by Business Week for 2008. One of them was that John McCain was going to be President. Take it with a grain of salt... or not.
February 19, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come to think about this, if Hillary wins the nomination though a questionable tactic (superdelegates, Florida and Michigan, etc), the least affected will be Obama. The party will be weakened and divided, with a divided party, she will loose to McCain and be politically finished, the country will have to endure 4 more years of Republican rule (with who knows what new war to deal with), and in 4 years we will be all looking for Obama.
February 19, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does it matter? The Clinton campaign has said that those states are "insignificant", so she's not planning on being president of them. She'll just be POTSTVFH*. I, for one, can't wait to see the flag.
*President of the States That Vote for Hillary
February 19, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree completely. This whole election is about getting the Republicans out of power in both the White House and Congress.
I've been fiddling around with electoral vote maps recently, and it really seems as if Obama has a far better chance of beating McCain in November, even with giving McCain Florida and maybe even Ohio and Missouri.
If Obama can take PA, VA, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri, then the election will be a blowout.
Anyone who wants to play with possible electoral vote outcomes can do so here:
http://www.270towin.com/
Note that you can probably safely disregard most of that site's statistical projections of "Probability of reaching 270" since they are currently based solely on 2004 outcomes.
February 19, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If electibility was really an issue, you all would have voted for Edwards in the primaries.
End of story.
February 19, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, look outside the window. It's FEBRUARY. The election is in November. Things change.
February 19, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The FL match-ups are substantially worse for Obama compared to Clinton, presumably because of ill feeling because Obama doesn't want FL seated.
I don't think it makes much difference to Obama's electability argument, since there's plenty of time for him to make nice with Florida, which hasn't really seen up close. (Nor Michigan, for that matter.)
February 19, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Personally, I think a win would be good. Just for the sake of variety, you know.
February 20, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"There's no way that Obama will lose to McCain in November."
Bush won in 2004. That was the most astounding and disheartening political event of my lifetime. Considering the ignorance of the American people, McCain could have a chance.
February 20, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
For one thing, Obama will likely lose the entire South. Sure, he beat HRC in the Dem primaries there with a huge margin. It's still a very Red, racist, region and these folk just don't vote for the likes of Obama. So you can just write off these Electoral College votes right now.
What gets me is all the nonsense about Sen. Clinton playing the race card. Are you kidding me? By November the GOP will not merely be running Willie Horton ads, they will have turned Obama himself into Willie Horton. Or, better yet, Willie Hussein Horton. They will play not a single race card but the entire deck.
February 20, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I did not have a strong preference between Clinton and Obama early in the race. I have to say that one of the factors that pushed me towards Obama is his relative strength in middle-ground states as opposed to Clinton. I think the only way the GOP can win this year is if they get McCain as the candidate against Clinton.
February 20, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
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