Thoughts for Monday Afternoon:

1) Watching Edwards negotiate with his former rivals is a little bit like watching Alex Rodriguez opt-out of his contract. In both cases, there's only one plausible outcome. But simply announcing the decision destroys whatever leverage remains to pry loose concessions. So we'll watch this elaborate pas de trois unfold until it arrives at its inevitable coda.

2) The race for pledged delegates is effectively over, and Obama has won. Now, they're only fighting over the margin of victory. They'll also squabble about the legitimacy of caucuses. I give the national media until Wednesday before these become the new story lines.

3) Patti Solis Doyle's departure is an admission that the Clinton campaign isn't just struggling against Obama, it's also battling its own strategy. Solis Doyle wagered that Super Tuesday would seal victory; she invested her dwindling resources accordingly. Plouffe gambled that it would be a draw, and spread his resources down the calendar. It's dangerous for any campaign to believe its own hype.

4) It may be this week; it may be next; it may not be until March. But sooner or later, the Clinton campaign is going to have to face the reality that the Michigan and Florida delegations aren't going to be seated, and that they can't win the convention without them. When it does, we'll see a dramatic shift in strategy. The Clintons will join the DNC in pressing for caucuses (the formal name for any party-run election, no matter its mechanics). And when they do, Obama's not going to be able to stop them. If Obama can't pull off an upset in OH, TX or PA, it's likely that the campaign will come down to these final two contests. And ironic - the political advantage state leaders failed to achieve by moving their contests forward may well be theirs if they agree to reschedule them all the way at the end of the calendar.

5) The Democratic primary has shaped up, in large part, as a generational battle. The strong support for Obama among voters under 45 cuts across racial, gender, and class lines. Hillary's support among women over 45, and among all voters over the age of 65, is rock solid. It's been a close fight, but Obama is on the brink of victory. That sets up an even more interesting dynamic come November. The Republican candidate is vying to be the oldest man ever elected president; the (plausible) Democratic nominee is running on a message of change. Among the problems facing McCain: voters of his generation trend Democratic, as do women (who comprise larger percentages of the electorate in each successive age bracket). If this battle plays out again in the general, it may not be so close.

6) Will becoming the frontrunner help or hurt Obama? The Potomac Primaries offer an interesting test case. If he can prevail better than 60-40, it's probably a sign that Hillary's base is starting to get discouraged and stay home. But if his margin is smaller than the (incredibly flawed) polls presently predict, we may see Hillary trying to sell the comeback narrative again. Taking the overall lead among delegates is a similarly fraught achievement - its major benefits accrue only if Obama can retain that lead. Otherwise, the media may embrace a narrative of shifting momentum.

7) When does the Clinton campaign think about folding up its tent and caling it a day? Would it take Obama accruing more than 2,025 delegates - improbable for months to come? How about a loss in Ohio, Texas, or Pennsylvania? How damaging will it be to her prospects that people are even voicing the question?

8) After Wisconsin, we hit a long, empty stretch. For the first time, Obama will feel the heat of national media scrutiny that he imagines he's already endured. How well will he hold up? Can he maintain his momentum?

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