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Convention Math: Obama wins three more UADs, narrows superdelegate gap

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Loyal readers are already familiar with my effort to count the forgotten supderdelegates - the 76 Unpledged Add-On Delegates (UADs) to the Democratic Nationa Convention. To recap: 720 superdelegates get to go to Denver by virtue of the party or governmental offices they hold. The forgotten 76 are handed out to the states in proportion to the number of DNC members in each state, and (s)elected by state committees, conventions, or delegations. In this incredibly tight contest, it's naive to believe that any candidate whose supporters comprise a majority of the body that selects the UADs will select anyone not (unofficially, but no less firmly) pledged to support them.

Counting UADs is hard, because like delegates from caucus states, we don't know who they'll be, only how they're likely to vote in Denver. Further complicating the picture is the diverse array of selection processes. So in this count, I'm only including delegates who we know, pretty much for sure, are going to back a given candidate. Though February 5, the count stood at:
Obama: 11
Clinton: 7

Tonight's results bring a further advantage for Obama, whose lead is based upon his dominance of caucus states, on show again this evening.
 
             Clinton      Obama      Undetermined
WA:           0               2                   0
NE:            0               1                   0
LA:            0               0                   0

Your new totals:
Obama: 14
Clinton: 7

We'll keep a running tally here every election night, until one of the more reputable bodies tracking delegates notices that they're excluding more than twenty delegates who, by any right, ought to be counted.

If you find this worthwhile, please click the 'recommend this' link, so that other readers can share it. More election and polling analysis is available on my blog (click my name). And, as always, I welcome your comments and corrections.


Comments (7)

Excellent job Fly. Your articles are always informative and worth reading.

I keep clicking the recommend this link, and it seems to work, but when I refresh, my vote doesn't seem to have been counted. I'm beginning to feel like a senior citizen living in Broward county here.

You're the Fly.

Commentary always much appreciated, Fly! ♪♪♪

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***hello-world

Likewise plus the comment box did not show up either until i refreshed again.

It is pretty amazing the percentage of voters who voted for Obama: 68% in both Nebraska and Washington with 90% in the Virgin Islands.

The delegate count is confusing because NBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, WSJ etc... all show different numbers of delegates.

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Tonight's win adds another UAD to the Obama column, this one from Maine. Your revised tally:
Obama: 15
Clinton: 7

Great Job Fly.

I was watching Josh's wrap up of the Sunday talking heads. It must be just me, but the expert pundits seemed to be missing the point of Obama's statement on the superdelegates. I think the point he was trying to make was since super delegates can vote any way they choose, to be fair, they should choose whomever had the most votes as a WHOLE (all of the votes) not broken down by state.

How the pundits twisted this to mean that Ted Kennedy and John Kerry could not vote for Obama because he lost Mass. is confusing.

Obama was simply saying Super Delegates should vote by who won the most votes/regular delegates total.

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