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Clinton still losing without caucuses included
One of the arguments being put forth by the Clinton campaign is that the caucuses aren't truly representative of the popular will of the voters. What logically follows is that even if she loses the pledged delegate race, the super delegates are fair game to swing the nomination because of the "illegitimacy" of the delegates awarded from caucuses.
For the sake of argument, let's say she's right. Let's say caucuses are not legitimate determiners of popular vote. Where does the pledged delegate race stand if you eliminate all the caucuses?
A good question, I thought. I used the CBS delegate totals, copied them to a spreadsheet and deleted all the caucus states. The results?
Clinton: 534Obama: 593
Uh oh. Clinton is still losing the delegate battle in primary only states. Seems to undermine her super delegate argument a bit.
Not sure how to attach the spreadsheet, but here are the numbers:
Clinton
Obama
DC
15 Delegates
3
10
Maryland
70 Delegates
24
44
Virginia
83 Delegates
27
56
Louisiana
56 Delegates
22
34
Alabama
13 Delegates
4
9
Arizona
56 Delegates
31
25
Arkansas
35 Delegates
27
8
California
55 Delegates
13
32
Connecticut
48 Delegates
22
26
Delaware
15 Delegates
6
9
Georgia
18 Delegates
3
15
Illinois
32 Delegates
9
23
Mass.
72 Delegates
24
48
Missouri
72 Delegates
36
36
New Jersey
107 Delegates
59
48
New York
232 Delegates
139
93
Oklahoma
38 Delegates
24
14
Tennessee
68 Delegates
38
28
Utah
3 Delegates
2
1
Dems Abroad
7 Delegates
-
-
Florida
0 Delegates
-
-
South Carolina
45 Delegates
12
25
Michigan
0 Delegates
-
-
New Hampshire
22 Delegates
9
9
Total Primary Dels
534
593













Comments (5)
Wow. The formatting of this post really got hosed.
Bottomline,
Clinton has 534 pledged delegates from primaries. Obama has 594
February 14, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers are very wrong, at least some of them. Clinton won MA, but you have the delegates there going 48-24 for Obama.
Your CA numbers are even more wacko. First, the state is worth far more than 55 delegates. Second, the Clinton and Obama delegates don't add up to even the 55. Third, Clinton won that state, but again you have Obama with more delegates.
BTW, I am an Obama supporter.
February 14, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, they're wrong. Something got messed up... I'll rerun.
February 14, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, I don't know what happened there, but I re calculated, and I now get:
Clinton: 848
Obama: 874
Same story, slightly less margin.
February 14, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's right. Same story, same ass-whooping.
February 14, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
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