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Can Hillary Clinton Still Win? Maybe.

Hillary Clinton is on the verge of losing the Democratic nomination.  According to reports, her campaign is divided on how to turn the tide of battle over the next couple of weeks -- how to deal with Barack Obama.  The Obama campaign has the momentum now, and a loss in either Ohio or Texas, or in Pennsylvania later, could end her campaign.

We hear a lot of explanations about how Clinton's campaign went off the track.  We hear that she relied too much on big states and primaries, that she's not likable enough to compete with the charismatic Barack Obama, that her campaign is undisciplined and poorly managed.  We hear that she never distinguished herself on the issues, that it was a mistake to run as a Washington insider, and that her experience versus change theme backfired when she failed to convince voters that there was any real difference between her experience and Senator Obama's.  As a matter of fact, there is so little evidence of executive experience on either candidate's part that the pundits have taken to arguing that the way they are running their campaigns is an indicator of how well they are likely to govern.  Well, it isn't.  The Bush administration has shown time and again that the methods that get you elected are useless -- indeed they are dangerous -- when it comes time to govern.

Senator Clinton has one shot at turning her campaign around and winning the Democratic nomination.  The only way she will win is if the voters in the upcoming primaries and the super delegates who will vote at the convention decide that there is a real difference between getting elected and governing the United States.

For Senator Clinton to win, Democrats will have to decide that the government of the United States is so badly broken that it can't be fixed by all the good intentions in the world.  We have to believe that to fix our government we need to see exactly how it is broken and how to make it work again.

We have just been through eight of the most demoralizing years since the Reagan administration.  The Bush administration has revived Ronald Reagan's conscious use of threats -- in Reagan's case the Soviet threat and in Bush's case the threat of Islamic terrorism -- to promote an insupportable military budget that is designed to break the backs of minorities, the poor and the working class while -- in a uniquely the perverse way -- they have consciously pursued a policy of destroying the Executive Branch by politicizing every federal agency and using the power of the Executive to further their agenda.

There is not one federal agency that has been managed with anything even approaching competence.  The FDA, the USDA, the IRS, the VA, FEMA, the FCC and the Departments of Defense,  Justice and State have been mismanaged and are badly broken.  Tens of thousands of people have died from drugs that should not have been approved, tainted beef has found its way into school lunches, soldiers wounded in battle have been mistreated -- the list goes on and on and it is specific and it is horrendous.  And our candidates are not talking about it in anything except cliches and generalities.

Before Washington can be fixed, we have to see how it is broken.  The chance Senator Clinton has to be nominated now is to show voters exactly how Washington is broken.  If her experience argument is to become persausive, it must be based on the fact that she sees things Senator Obama doesn't see.


Comments (4)

How can she show how to fix it when it is easy to show that she's one of those who broke it?

I think there is another problem that her campaign needs to correct: Both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are running as "change candidates" but they are offering different kinds of change. Senator Clinton has been making an incredible effort to sound like Barack, but the truth of the matter is that the change she is offering is best contrasted with George W. Bush. If Barack Obama were not in the race, I have no doubt that she would've already locked up the nomination because I think that's the race she would've been running. I can almost write the speeches for her. "After 8 years of Bush Administration failures, wouldn't it be nice to have a President who ________ instead of _________, _________, and _________?" Fill in the blanks with specifics to the demographic being targeted and you're halfway there. She's not a particularly dynamic speaker anyway, so contrast with Bush, talk (but not TOO MUCH) about specific policy initiatives you want to enact, take some questions, and don't linger too long.

But the problem, quite simply, is Barack's candidacy. He's offering transformational rather than transitional change. His presence in the race meant she couldn't be the dominant voice in offering a course correction after the Bush shipwreck/Presidency. She chose to focus on touting her experience, but that only served to remind voters that they've lived through almost 20 years of her experience, and it has been ideological warfare "from Day One." (And how would she "out-experience" John McCain in the General election?) At this point in the race, Barack is who he is and she is who she is, but she is a known quantity. His capacity to inspire appears ascendant. Her capacity to divide is seemingly extending into the Democratic Party itself. The remaining question is when she'll see the writing on the wall. And whether or not she still cares...

The chance Senator Clinton has to be nominated now is to show voters exactly how Washington is broken. If her experience argument is to become persausive, it must be based on the fact that she sees things Senator Obama doesn't see.
I would say the average American is well aware of the fact that Washington is broken. But we also realize that it will take more than a technocrat to lift the fog of inertia so the entrenched interests of Washington can be excised from that festering swamp. Losing ten straight elections does not inspire confidence that someone with her name recognition has the ability to surround herself with the team necessary to accomplish said mission.

Go to my latest post, He's Inside Her OODA Loop to see my analysis of why we are in the endgame for the nomination and Clinton can't win now.

She can go out with a degree of modicum and graciousness, or as she can go out utterly and soundly defeated, but those are the only two choices.

The Bush administration has shown time and again that the methods that THEY used to get elected lead to disasterous government. If you cannot see the difference between W's campaign and Obama's then you lack judgement.

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