If I and 26 retiring republicans are reading the same wall, then the writing says, “Look out in November.” What coattails could we expect to see in November, if BHO is the nominee? Might we witness a congressional washout of historical proportions? Our most recent benchmark, 1994, resulted in a 10 percent (+/-) turnover in House seats, which remains a (sadly) stunning figure. If BHO sticks to form and his register of the American mood continues on the mark, I believe we may be witnessing the early stages of incumbency wipeouts as great or greater than 1994.

During an election cycle in which the easy political reference points and rules are straining, if not outright failing, to characterize this truly remarkable year, what reference points do we have? The 2006 congressional turnovers are informative, but I strongly suspect (read: assert) that it is too weak of a narrative to describe the awesome tectonics of this election cycle. Indeed, Iraq and the recession are toxic enough for the Republicans, but what may supercede such issues is the more generalized feeling of a referendum on governance itself- openness, competency, integrity, and good-faith compromise.

Keep in mind that republican retirements were announced before Obama’s headline grabbing performances. I wonder which other incumbents are second-guessing another term, and does an BHO candidacy portend another wave of announcements. My guess is yes.