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Anybody else notice this about the numbers in VA?
According to CNN, 617,710 Virginians cast their vote for Barack Obama today, compared to 344,449 for Clinton.
But what's compelling to me is that the entire Republican primary drew 478,355 votes-- all of them combined.
I'm no statistician, and polls make me nervous. But simple vote totals? To me, they say a great deal:
-Obama drew more people than the entire Republican party could muster. To me, that means he'd win Virginia in a general election.
-Clinton drew more than McCain did (242,216 as of this posting) on his own, but... still less than the entire GOP turnout. So in a general election...
Well, as I said... I'm no statistician. And I'm sure there's some elusive cosmic election theory that would disprove my notion...
But if you were to ask me? I'd say that Obama might just win Virginia-- a state that went 53% for W in 2004-- in a general election, even if McCain were to unite and form a Legion of Doom with the Huckster, RIP Romney, and Racist Ronnie Paul.
And that last part is precisely why people don't ask me about stuff like this.
j
Comments (14)
I wouldn't count any chickens. For one thing, there's a lot time between now and the general election. Furthermore, McCain's a done deal, so there is much less incentive for Republicans to vote in the primary. By contrast, Clinton-Obama is still very hot--the hottest primary in recent memory.
February 13, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I noticed that as well. I believe that he has done the same in at least 1 or 2 other states. But in VA, it is striking.
February 13, 2008 12:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the 2004 election, VA turned out around 3 million voters. Kerry on his own won more votes than the entire primary, so don't read too much into it.
February 13, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not reading much into it, but I would also say to Genghis that while his point is well taken, the VA GOP primary was close enough today that I reckon McCain was sweating.
Anyway, I know post is full of holes from a logical standpoint. But 60%?
Wowza.
February 13, 2008 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because Obama won VA so handily, it's appealing to think that Repubs are turning out for him instead of going to their own caucuses, and I'm sure that some are, but realistically, I see this an extension of the phenomenon that we've seen all season of much higher Dem turnouts. SC also had massive Dem vs Repub turnouts, and that was a closed primary. The phenomenon will become even more exaggerated as the Republican race winds down.
Don't get me wrong. Dems are excited for their candidates, Republicans are not, and that's great for us. And I think VA is a winnable state. But I second willraleigh; don't read too much into this.
February 13, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
How about the scenario that Republicans and Independents voted for him because he is easier to attack in the general election than Hillary?
February 13, 2008 3:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very rarely happens and no evidence of that in this case. Have you heard any Republicans call for people to vote for Obama b/c he's more beatable? I haven't.
Interesting column on why repubs like Obama:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/01/AR2008020102663.html
February 13, 2008 8:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. But I've heard Obama call for Republicans to cross over and vote for him to stop Hillary. Of course, we know that has nothing to do with the relatively low turnout on the Republican side in VA. As for winning VA in the Fall? Maybe if McCain has a stroke or something. Otherwise, I wouldn't give people false hope. Off topic a little, but I thank god every day that Whitman is not still Governor of NJ. But did she get out of the Bush administration clean?
February 13, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Republicans & Independents turning out to vote for Obama (33% in VA) is some kind of conspiricy. They jusy want to get in on the action, etc. But I am deeply concerned just how much of that support Obama retains in the GE when push comes to shove over Iraq. 51% of the independents who voted for Obama in NH thought there should be no withdrawal from Iraq whatsoever. I mean, its all a big Clinton hating party now, but what about tommorrow? How many people who have ever voted for Bush are going to support a seriously progressive agenda? I'm not trying to be an ass, I just want to know what other people think.
February 13, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I don't doubt that Obama may well be able to win VA in a general election, I think it is a mistake to extrapolate primary results to a general election.
I think the fact that Obama seems to be forging a non-traditional coalition and attracting legions of young folks into the process are factors that could bring a general election victory.
The fact that Obama has taken in VA what have heretofore been Clinton demographics may well change the accepted TX, OH, and PA calculus.
February 13, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the exit polls showed Obama "taking" indie and R votes from McCain.
I haven't seen followup efforts to try to determine which of these, among many other possible scenarios, was more the case:
*some base R voters, believing Huck has no chance, not liking McCain, crossed over to vote in the Dem primary against Hillary
*non-Taliban Rs and indies, believing McCain is a lock, voted for Obama to give themselves a choice in the general between two folks either of whom they can live with
*some base R voters not liking Huck either or thinking he has no chance, see no difference between McCain and Obama--see them both as Dems or liberals. So they vote Obama to stick it to
McCain.
February 13, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
In support of the "don't read too much into this" posts in this thread, yes, the read that says of course Dem turnout was much higher because the winner is not a foregone conclusion and it is a historically significant race, and because the Republican race is over and McCain is not beloved by a lot of R base voters makes the most sense to me.
February 13, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
TPM is linking to this WSJ article and note that it continues a trend of the Dem turnouts swamping the GOP.
Air America's Rachel Maddow talks about this just about every show following a primary and mentions it when given a chance on her guest analysis spots.
February 13, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this stage in the Republican primaries this is a meaningless discussion. Let's move on to a new subject.
February 13, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
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