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A Test Obama Needed
While I hate the idea of the nomination dragging out until the summer, even as an Obama supporter, I think what happened yesterday and carrying into today is a very good test for Obama. Let me start by saying I think the plagiarism story is about as weak as you can get, but it had all the things television news loves: conflict, changing storyline, a gotcha moment, and most importantly, video. I think it is fair to say that days like yesterday will happen to Obama, Clinton, and McCain more than a few times between now and November.
Prior to yesterday, Obama has been very skilled at letting the silly news cycle gotcha moments role off his back and maintaining a very level headed approach. This was before taking on the role of front runner. Now, almost no matter what he does, the media keeps a story like this alive and builds it into its narrative of the day, week, or month. The Clinton people know all to well that these trains can sometimes be unstoppable.
All eyes today will be on Wisconsin and the plagiarism story will likely define tonights cable news coverage and maybe the next two weeks (the irony could be that Obama might now be dying for a debate to change the story). If Obama loses tonight or maybe wins by 5 points or less, the narrative will be that the plagiarism issue has legs and will be talked about over and over again tonight and likely until something new happens. The plus for Obama is that if he wins tonight, especially by 10 points or more, then it could really end this story and the focus will be back on the fact that Hillary cannot win (something I do not believe, but it has been her troubling narrative of late).
Both of the Obama's have said that he can take a punch and that Illinois politics has prepared him for these types of attacks. Well, this is his chance to prove it. Does he still turn out his voters today? If he loses, can he turn the page quickly? If the perception of his honesty takes a hit, can he keep running on other traits and ideas?
The Clinton campaign caught a break and they are playing it out. If they win Wisconsin, yesterday could be seen as a game changer heading into her turf. If Obama wants to be president, he will have the next two weeks to prove he can get there. I think he can and if he proves it by winning Ohio or Texas and keeping the other under 10 points, the race could be over on March 4. Overcoming this test will only make that reality more likely, if he can do it.
Comments (1)
This is one of those parallel reality issues that pervade in Rovian/Clintonian politics: accuse your competition of doing something you're guilty of doing yourself but "own" the news cycles around it and take the focus off the real issues of the campaign. It also underscores the laziness of our press corps. - who took this charge from the Clinton campaign at face value and reported on it without any ensuing investigation. And now they continue to propagate it as an Obama character flaw, without any supplemental reference to Hillary's own very liberal record of lifting choice lines from under any available rock. Will she have to answer for her own plagarism? Not likely. The press has been too busy and distracted running with her campaign's talking points.
The press also left unchallenged the dubious claim that Obama has staked his candidacy on rhetoric and oratory. Someone please send me the news coverage where Obama says his campaign is based on oratory? He's a great orator, to be sure, but he ain't never said he's running for orator-in-chief. That's another unchallenged Clinton charge that our supine press is happy to run with. Why think when you can react?
As for Obama being able to take it, he took it just fine, no matter how imbalanced the coverage. And his message remains the same, as it has consistently since this campaign began. An interesting story unto itself but don't count on hearing much about it.
February 19, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
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