Bilbo

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  • : USA
  • : 35
  • : Democrat
  • : http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com http://www.andrewsullivan.com http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
  • : Truman, Cicero, John Adams, Sharpe Chronicles, Shadowmarch, Tigana, The Fionavar Tapestry, Asimov's Foundation series
  • : “If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you always got.” Mark Twain "Imagination is more important than knowledge. For while knowledge defines all we currently know and understand, imagination points to all we might yet discover and create." Albert Einstein "It's better to light a candle than to curse the darkness." Eleanor Roosevelt

Latest Posts

  • Why not McCain?

    Here are three reasons: Poor judgement, abuse of power, and manipulation of the media.  No, I'm not talking about Iraq yet.  I'm talking about his handling of Cindy McCain's prescription drug addiction.  It's not a case of his trying to...more »

    Posted on June 4, 2008 2:49 PM

  • McCain's Rove Campaign - Focus on Your Neighbors

    As expected McCain is running a Rove campaign. As an Obama supporter I've been called naive throughout the primaries.  It's assumed that I drank the kool-aid.  But, I made my decision after careful consideration of the issues and the candidates themselves.  I...more »

    Posted on May 16, 2008 11:47 AM

  • Hillary Clinton - Perception or Deception

    The below quote is from an article in the NY Times dated January 10, 1995 entitled "Hillary Clinton Asks Help In Finding a Softer Image". "I am surprised at the way people seem to perceive me," she said, "and sometimes...more »

    Posted on May 6, 2008 10:28 AM

  • Digging our way to China...

    You will not find it in your credit report.You will probably not get a reminder in the mail.But, you owe $30,751.That is each citizen's share of the Outstanding Public Debt.$9,346,419,103,203.92 divided by the estimated population of 303,932,643.Please inform your Republican friends that during...more »

    Posted on May 5, 2008 8:40 AM

  • My Moment of Truth - March 19, 2003

    Below is what I wrote on March 19, 2003.  It is an unedited look at what I was thinking one day before the war began. "The withdraw(al) of the resolution is actually a diplomatic effort in itself and every statement...more »

    Posted on May 2, 2008 1:50 PM

  • Obama = Roger Maris

    How many delegates needed to win nomination?  2024How many more does Obama need?  291How many is Obama expected to pickup in Guam, Indiana, and North Carolina?  100 (give or take a few)How many undeclared superdelegates?  233Will 191 of them endorse...more »

    Posted on May 1, 2008 11:03 AM

  • Drill in ANWR

    How much oil is there?  Between 4.3 billion barrels (95% probability) and 11.8 billion (5% probability).How much do we consume each day?  20 million barrelsIf we needed it to meet 100% demand how quickly would it be gone?  About One YearHow...more »

    Posted on April 29, 2008 1:33 PM

  • Eat or be eaten?

    Perception can shift on the smallest of things (Dean Scream played 633 times by cable and broadcast news in four days following "the incident").Many of us are hoping that McCain gets caught in a similar situation.  Anger beats bitter?  Paper...more »

    Posted on April 28, 2008 11:28 AM

  • Trolling in Concerned Waters (corrected)

    Here is Krugman's latest bait: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/walter-shapiro-gets-it/ "But if he is the nominee, and runs this way in the general election — if it’s about the candidate’s awesomeness, not about why progressive policies make peoples’ lives better — it’s a formula...more »

    Posted on April 25, 2008 1:57 PM

  • Trolling in Concerned Waters

    Here is Krugman's latest bait: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/walter-shapiro-gets-it/ "But if he is the nominee, and runs this way in the general election — if it’s about the candidate’s awesomeness, not about why progressive policies make peoples’ lives better — it’s a formula...more »

    Posted on April 25, 2008 1:53 PM

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Latest Comments

  • Under the heading "Standing with Israel against terrorism," Clinton's official policy paper, released last September and currently touted on her campaign website, states, "Hillary Clinton believes that Israel's right to exist in safety as a Jewish state, with defensible borders and an undivided Jerusalem as its capital, secure from violence and terrorism, must never be questioned." With the phrase "an undivided Jerusalem as its capital,"

    Posted at June 4, 2008 3:46 PM in response to Obama commits to eternal war

  • Are you proposing the Jerusalem be divided?

    Posted at June 4, 2008 3:44 PM in response to Obama commits to eternal war

  • To Hillary supporters not playing the victim card or who want to move on, I apologize for the below.

    1. If you run for the nomination and don't win, play the victim, try to move the goal posts, and develop your own math to convince people who can't add. MSM will entertain it for the purpose of ratings.

    2. If you finish the race so close to the winner he can feel your breath on his neck, sink your teeth and hope he bleeds to death before the nomination is decided.

    3. If you decide to run, always remember that the Democratic party allows differing views. You must threaten and bribe others to convince them yours is the only way.

    4. If you lose, remember a proper way to celebrate what you accomplished - don't encourage your supporters to get behind the winner to improve your party's prospects in the general election instead keep things in limbo and suggest they visit your website in the off chance they donate some more money to clear up your debts.

    5. If the above seems a tad depressing, it is but remember you were entitled to the nomination.

    Posted at June 4, 2008 12:59 PM in response to Top 5 Lessons for future Dem candidates

  • What specific statements from Rev Wright in Church offended you? Me thinks you protest too much...

    Posted at June 3, 2008 11:42 AM in response to On Obama leaving Trinity.

  • My ego is forcing me to point out that I cited this study on my blog March 19th.

    http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/disenfranchising-the-fl-and-mi.php

    Posted at May 31, 2008 12:26 PM in response to Do Florida And Michigan Primaries Really Reflect The Will Of The People? Nope.

  • I live in the suburbs, so it hurts to say this, but we are going to suffer quite a bit more than the city folk in the coming years.

    I've been extremely frustrated that they ruled out the Schukyill Valley Metro project to restore rail service between Philadelphia and Reading. The latest is a proposal to extend the R6 from Norristown using a diesel engine passenger train. Better than nothing, so I hope this one gets through.

    But, even more than this I want sidewalks and bike lanes in my neighborhood. I could get to everything I need with them.

    Posted at May 30, 2008 11:41 AM in response to The Price of -- Oil -- in China

  • First, I would like to remind you of something Hillary said: "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything".

    I don't think it's much of a stretch, the majority do not follow politics as closely as we do. "All politics are local."

    But, the point is that there is a significant movement towards Obama if you look before and after their campaigning in states. They were also early in the primary season, so MI and FL did not have as much benefit as later contests in national coverage or in judging his viability.

    You want to pretend that the turnout would increase but the percentages would stay the same. I don't see it.

    Your goal seems to be to convince us that Hillary legitimately won the popular vote, the same as Clinton's with superdelegates. I would suggest to do so, you need to give up on MI as you lose credibility in claiming it's a valid result with his name off the ballot.

    But, more importantly explain to me why FL would be different than other states where there was a significant movement toward Obama before and after his campaigning in state.

    Posted at May 28, 2008 1:45 PM in response to Popular Vote vs Popular Vote

  • Had Obama not campaigned in Iowa then the answer is yes, he would been almost a nobody. He had nearly 2000 precinct captains in the state communicating his message and answering voters questions. He won because more Iowa caucus goers got to know him and preferred him to Hillary. Since you want to discount caucus states feel free to choose one of the primary states where he won or closed the gap after campaigning.

    I think it's objectivity you lack, not creativity.

    Posted at May 28, 2008 12:55 PM in response to Popular Vote vs Popular Vote

  • So true. I find it hard to imagine McClellan has a single original thought in his book let alone any insight worth checking it out for free from my public library. Actually, I think my next visit I will ask our librarians not to spend the tiny fraction it would cost in my taxes to add it to the collection.

    Posted at May 28, 2008 11:06 AM in response to McClellan's Story. Who's Buying it?

  • Whenever anybody wants to add FL and MI into the results without making a clear statement acknowledging how different the results would have been had those states held legitimate primaries, they are arguing against democracy and fairness not for it.

    As stated above the candidates did not campaign there, so Clinton took all the benefit of her name recognition and Obama the weakness of being a relative unknown. It's likely Hillary would have still won FL, but the margin in popular vote and delegates would have been much smaller. MI would probably have been within a few percentage either way.

    Based on a statistical comparison with turnout in other states' primaries, it appears that roughly two million more people would have voted in FL and MI had they expected their delegates would be seated. It's obvious why Clinton and her supporters continue to ignore these voters.

    It's fair to argue the popular vote metric, but not to ignore the unfairness of including FL and MI based on the illegitimate primary results or to blame Obama for them. In hindsight it is clear that the DNC, elected Democrats in FL and MI, and voters should have done more in advance of the primaries to either ensure the dates were moved or that the penalties enforced did not lead to unrepresentative results. But, again some Clinton supporters fight against democracy and fairness by arguing that no penalty should be assessed after the fact.

    Posted at May 28, 2008 10:38 AM in response to Popular Vote vs Popular Vote

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