Great stuff, Fly. If Obama scores expected wins in MS and WY, then we're back to March 3, except less opportunities for Clinton to score delegates. Also, the drip-drip-drip of the supposed 50 secret delegates flocking to Obama should signal he's the inevitable nominee.

Plus, if he leverages the superdelegates into being surrogates for him in PA, that'll give him more firepower in scoring a win there.

I think the Party would prefer to have him win-out, but can they wait that long?

Posted at March 5, 2008 2:31 PM in response to Wednesday Morning Questions (and Answers)

McCain-Obama. Red States last time, looking Purple this time. These are all Rassmussen polls (unless otherwise noted), February 2008:

MO(11). 49-43, Obama
NM(5). 55-40, Obama
KS(6). 50-44, McCain
IA(7). 44-41, Obama
VA(13). 49-44, Obama
OH(20). 42-41, McCain
NV(5). 50-38, Obama
FL(27). 41-39, McCain (Quinniapac)
CO(9). 46-39, Obama

And we still haven't gotten any 'Muss polls from NC, IN or NE.

Of course, it's early. Yet, in the states I've cited, the Republicans may have to play defense states that total up to 103 EVs. Throw in Obama's passionate ground game and a possibly weaker fundraising year for Republicans, and it's going to be a tough run for McCain. That's much more terrain he has to cover, and any Dem candidate should have CA/NY in his/her backpocket.

This has the makins' of a rout.

Posted at February 22, 2008 3:41 PM in response to Rasmussen: Obama Catching Up In Texas And Ohio

Ol' Joe needed to do something to burnish his cred with the right. I've been watching Morning Joe during the primaries, and for the most part he's been loving the Obamas. (And there's also probably a heaping helping of Clinton-spite mixed in.)

Again, it's one of those non-issues that fill up time. There hasn't been much of a book on Michelle Obama yet, so this can't possibly help. However, she's a quick study. If/when Barack gets the nomination, she'll do a much better job of parsing her words.

It's also one of those rorshach ink-blots. Those that already support Obama will probably find her candor refreshing, while those that don't will say that this is grist for the "Obamas are arrogant" mill.

All in all, I find her to be more of an asset than a liability.

Posted at February 19, 2008 1:04 PM in response to Joe Scarborough picking on Michelle Obama

In terms of HRC and Ghostwriting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_takes_a_village

Scroll down to the "Ghostwriter Controversy" section and it references several sources in regards to how HRC didn't give credit to her ghostwriter.

While he may have "sampled" Patrick's "Just Words" riff, he's referred to this notion of HRC diminishing Obama's rhetoric in other speeches in Wisconsin. As stated in other comments, Patrick and Obama are good friends and have the same campaign manager. It's possible that Patrick suggested to him to go with that rhetorical tack in the important Founder's Day speech.

But hey, it's part of the game. And HRC got her blowback today since the nightly news showed her copping other speeches, as well as referring to the fact that she's stolen Obama's "change" theme. If your opponent calls you out for being too good of a speaker, that's a high class problem.

Posted at February 18, 2008 10:02 PM in response to Huh?