Exactly. I'm worried about what percentage of the money comes from maxed out donors. That will tell us about his fundraising potential in the GE. If that figure is large, Obama's in trouble.

Posted at August 16, 2008 12:27 PM in response to Obama Raises Over $51 Million In July

Question, Greg:

How much of that can he legally spend before he accepts the nomination?

Posted at August 16, 2008 12:13 PM in response to Obama Raises Over $51 Million In July

Dunno ...

I think there are plenty of "McCain = Bush III" ads, press releases, etc. to go around. And a Presidential candidate also has not only to convince the voters that the current majority party (the party that controls the White House) is underserving of retaining majority status but that his/her party is capable of being the majority party, too.

"McCain = Bush III" is simply not enough -- even in a year like this one. Otherwise, Democrats would have been willing to nominate someone like Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, etc. -- all great Democrats.

Posted at August 16, 2008 10:04 AM in response to New McCain Ad: "Maybe The Applause Has Gone To His Head"

Because that's what the stadium holds, dumb a$$! And it's 75,000 -- not 60,000.

Posted at August 16, 2008 9:55 AM in response to New McCain Ad: "Maybe The Applause Has Gone To His Head"

I disagree.

Do you think the McCain campaign is being ineffective by not playing up that "bitter" remark in commercials time and again? How about about Jeremiah Wright's rants? You save some arguments for later.

Barack Obama had to take that foreign policy trip. Had he gone on the attack on the economy before that time, that would have taken away from his successful trip.

The attack has to match the candidate and the moment.

Posted at August 15, 2008 10:39 AM in response to New McCain Ad: "Celebrity" Obama Is Also The "Taxman"

Sadly, I agree. Mostly because convention bounces usually just solidify party support. In this case, both parties pretty much have almost all their support solidified.

I think turnout is also a big deal.

Posted at August 14, 2008 6:03 PM in response to Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Edge In Colorado

Because this is the first time McCain has been ahead, and we can't take this election for granted. That's why.

Now we don't want to be drama queens, but we can't call even a 1-2 point trail a good thing -- particularly in a swing state such as Colorado.

Posted at August 14, 2008 6:00 PM in response to Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Edge In Colorado

All polls in CO -- until now. That said, it is hard to believe that Obama gets only 83% of Centennial State Dems while McCain gets 90% of Centennial State Repubs. Obama got 87% of CO Dems in the last poll. Still, this is sobering news.

We're going to have to work to win this election. This ain't gonna be easy. Nobody ever said it would be.

Posted at August 14, 2008 5:57 PM in response to Poll: McCain Takes One-Point Edge In Colorado

Newsflash, everyone! Who thought Hillary Clinton, a superdelegate, wanted to go on record as not supporting the party's nominee? That would have made for Exhibit A for Democrats to blame losing the election on Hillary Clinton.

Same with the other superdelegates, who comprise of 20% of the delegates. They want a political future themselves, and weren't willing to risk it by not voting for the party's nominee.

Hillary knew this all along, which is why she never wanted a roll-call vote in the first place. She didn't want to be embarrassed by getting less than 40% of the delegates. She knows who holds the cards.

Posted at August 14, 2008 2:12 PM in response to Obama And Hillary Reach Deal On How To Conduct Convention

McCain has one field office in PA; Obama has 18 (source: Nate Silver's website). I have a hard time believing McCain will contest the Keystone State until the last week in October.

Posted at August 13, 2008 11:43 AM in response to Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Pennsylvania