Brent Goldfarb
- : Maryland
- : 39
- : Centrist
- : Democat
23% of white Clinton supporters think Obama's a Muslim
Hat tip Art Levine: from the Pew Poll:White Democrats who hold unfavorable views of Obama are much more likely than those who have favorable opinions of him to say that equal rights for minorities have been pushed too far; they...more »
Posted on March 27, 2008 8:31 PM
Will TPM stop flashing meaningless poll headlines?
All that movement "he's ahead, she's ahead" - almost certainly random (i.e., measurement error). They are tied in the national polls.Until you see a series of polls outside the margin of error, then there is nothing to report....more »
Posted on March 25, 2008 1:18 PM
Identify politics: Can Obama be the nominee?
Identity politics has been a subtext (and a often a supertext) of the race between Clinton and Obama. This is, in effect, the only way to interpret the age / gender / racial voting patterns so far. Depending on the...more »
Posted on March 19, 2008 5:01 PM
The DNC, Michigan and Florida
Howard Dean was on NPR today (see the update at the bottom of the post). He was unequivocal that the delegates would not be seated by the DNC and that, in effect, the delegates would not be seated if Obama...more »
Posted on March 5, 2008 9:32 PM
What's up with the sensationalist TPM headlines?
There currently is a TPM headline on the main page:"Gallop: Clinton Takes the National Lead"If we click through to the story, we see the qualifiers and a link to the source of the story. It turns out that Clinton and...more »
Posted on February 21, 2008 3:32 PM
Obama and anti-semitism
Let me just preface this post by pointing out that I am an ardent Obama supporter. So much so that I canvassed yesterday in DC - (like that made a difference!)This recent post gave me pause: I am also an...more »
Posted on February 13, 2008 11:11 AM
Clinton Management Skills
A shakeup is almost certainly a sign of management failure. But this management failure may reflect a poor choice of strategy, poor implementation, or both. Clinton in the past has exhibited symptoms of Bush-esk failures in accounting for dissenting views....more »
Posted on February 11, 2008 2:57 PM
Momentum vs. Ceiling
Before I argued that there was not yet enough information to determine if Tuesday's results mean that Obama hit a ceiling or that he has momentum, but simply ran out of time to connect with voters.Matthew Yglesias analyzes the exit...more »
Posted on February 7, 2008 9:43 PM
Did Obama hit a wall?
There is some talk that Obama hit a wall. Maybe. He also may have run out of time. Before Super Tuesday the consensus was that it will be difficult for Obama to erase such a large gap. This consensus was...more »
Posted on February 6, 2008 11:03 AM
Is this old news?
I am no fan of Clinton, but I was taken a back by this http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/11/would-hillary-make-good-president.html Is that old news?...more »
Posted on February 1, 2008 3:30 PM
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Chris and others,
Indeed you are correct - I misread the poll analysis. Thanks for the correction and I apologize.
-Brent
Posted at March 27, 2008 11:35 PM in response to 23% of white Clinton supporters think Obama's a Muslim
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The headline changed while I was posting. Bravo!
Posted at March 27, 2008 1:52 PM in response to Pollster: We Did Not Over-Represent African Americans In Asking About Wright
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The headline should read: "Not over-represented". They certainly did over-sample. As Josh points out, there is a difference.
Posted at March 27, 2008 1:51 PM in response to Pollster: We Did Not Over-Represent African Americans In Asking About Wright
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My computer made a typo. The title should read "Identity Politics, Can Obama be the Nominee?
Posted at March 19, 2008 5:28 PM in response to Identify politics: Can Obama be the nominee?
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I apologize for the omission. No trust fund and no Birkenstocks - though there is always hope.
Posted at March 5, 2008 10:57 PM in response to The DNC, Michigan and Florida
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I don't understand why Michigan is discussed. I think that most students of democracy would concur that a meaningful election requires more than one name on the ballot.
Florida is similar. Clinton was widely scene as contesting those primaries whereas Obama was not. Clinton, as I recall, argued that Florida and Michigan's delegations should be seated before those votes. I wonder if Clinton would have argued that the Florida and Michigan delegations should be seated if Obama's name was also on the Michigan ballot. Here's why:
Momentum hyperbole aside, the demographics of each state are probably the greatest determinant of the state by state outcomes. I would venture that Michigan and Ohio would more or less negate each other if fair primary elections were held and would have negated each other if Obama's name had been on the Michigan ballot.
As is, continuing to list Florida and Michigan in hypothetical tallies lends legitimacy to these contests - effectively caving to Clinton spin.
Posted at March 5, 2008 3:43 PM in response to Obama Still Has Popular Vote Lead — But Just Barely
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Hey, they changed to headline! Bravo!
Posted at February 21, 2008 4:37 PM in response to What's up with the sensationalist TPM headlines?
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Thanks for the perspectives. Clearthinker, I agree that this should not be an issue - but the question is: will it?
Posted at February 13, 2008 2:29 PM in response to Obama and anti-semitism
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Not sure I buy the "demonstrated personal attributes and skills".
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200802u/patti-solis-doyle
Posted at February 13, 2008 1:37 PM in response to Should Senator Clinton Stay In? Yes...
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The differing polls must imply that the two pollsters are weighting their results differently. Zogby is assuming greater turnout of Obama supporters than is SurveyUSA. Otherwise, it would be almost impossible for them to have such different predictions. Conclusion: the results today are all about the various campaigns ground games.
Posted at February 5, 2008 9:37 AM in response to The Polls Predict ... ???
