100% reporting: NC goes to Obama by 15%
I see that Obama is up by 14% on TPM with 99% reporting, but Fox seems to be only source I can find at this moment reporting 100% and Obama took NC by just over 15%. Obama: 57.52%Clinton: 42.48%...more »
Posted on May 7, 2008 6:20 AM
Market bets on Obama
Sometimes it helps to tune out the noise of the delusional (pro-C) or angst ridden (pro-O) crowds and look to what the markets are saying. Obama's numbers are surging today in political futures trading on Intrade. His odds are back...more »
Posted on May 5, 2008 8:10 AM
Hillary Crashes, Barack Bottoms
Following the Rev Wright outburst on Monday, the market in Obama panicked. His political share price at prediction market, Intrade.com, tumbled by over five percent by Tuesday afternoon. His losses, however, were split between Hillary and Al (Gore). Though Clinton...more »
Posted on April 30, 2008 10:05 AM
A word about morons and democracy
I thought this quote from H L Mencken on the natural course of democracy was very apt for what has been happening to the US for the past few election cycles. The larger the mob, the harder the test. In...more »
Posted on April 28, 2008 2:20 PM
That 10 million . . .
Don't know how much to read into this, but if you look at the Alexa ratings for hillaryclinton.com (where one would presumably go in order to donate online), while there has been a bump in traffic since Pennsylvania, there doesn't...more »
Posted on April 28, 2008 12:41 PM
Hillary: Sold on history
The noise of the MSM that somehow Clinton has closed the gap and is actually gaining momentum on Obama needs a cold hard dose of market reality. If you look at the political futures markets (intrade.com), there has been zero...more »
Posted on April 28, 2008 7:58 AM
Why you shouldn't cash your stimulus check
Huffpo's Max Keiser on why you shouldn't spend your stimulus check. As such, the value of these checks as un-cashed mementos of the failed Bush presidency should appreciate at the inflation rate plus a collector's item premium rate for years...more »
Posted on April 28, 2008 7:46 AM
-
I have also been following intrade. Obama definitely has strong hands invested in his stock, so when 'scandals' like Wright were erupting, you saw very few traders bail out of his stock. And of those that did, Clinton SPLIT the newly available pool with Gore.
In fact, Clinton is running far closer to Al Gore.
So, I ask, why is the media not reporting on the horse race between Clinton and Gore - both far, far behind front runner Obama?
Posted at May 26, 2008 9:17 AM in response to Why Aren't Hillary Supporters Putting Their Money Where Their Mouths are
-
Ha! A quadruple digit win - send out that meme!
Posted at May 7, 2008 7:09 AM in response to 100% reporting: NC goes to Obama by 15%
-
A reactive futures market? Hmmmm. If you look at the charts, you will see that they were far less reactive than the polls or the media. I guess it is the real money being placed on the outcome which forces the 'investors' to look at the fundamentals rather than the noise.
Compared to the daily polls, intrade has been a relative sea of calm.
Posted at May 5, 2008 2:53 PM in response to Market bets on Obama
-
This is the third pundit/politician (all men) in a week who has claimed that Hillary somehow has testicles. Verrrry bizarre. What does it mean?
Posted at May 5, 2008 7:23 AM in response to James Carville: Hillary has three balls
-
Didn't the GOP run ads trying to link the LA candidate with Obama/Wright? So, it didn't work?
My theory has been that the whole alleged Wright issue won't work for a McCain/Obama GE because many evangelicals will hear similar things in their own churches. God hates America because of gays, abortionists, etc. 9-11 was God punishing America for women's liberation, gays, abortionists, etc. New Orleans was also God's justice, etc.
Posted at May 4, 2008 3:31 AM in response to Two Victories In One Night!!!
-
The markets are pricing in a different opinion.
Hillary's odds have just collapsed this morning by ten percent.
While, indeed, Obama's odds had fallen from 80 percent to just under 74 percent over the course of Monday and Tuesday, his price has recovered up to 76 today.
The other thing to note is that Obama's losses on Monday and Tuesday in the prediction markets was a gain shared by Clinton and Gore! Punters were not convinced that Obama's problems made Clinton's fundamentals any better.
Posted at April 30, 2008 10:11 AM in response to Obama's Long Odds
-
Yes, indeed, her campaign specifically points out that the increase in web donations came from online. The other thing that the Alexa data doesn't bear out is in the page views . . . they remained flat on the prior six weeks. So, someone is coming to give money and doesn't click around on more pages? I know that is what I did when I decided to give money to Obama. It drove me to click around to at least 15 pages.
I will check into whether there are more reliable sites than Alexa. It would be nice to have another source to check this against.
Posted at April 28, 2008 5:11 PM in response to That 10 million . . .
-
The number cause of rising oil price is falling value of the dollar. The dollar has fallen from about 90 cents to the euro to 1.60 to the euro since 2002. Oil has risen lock step with that.
And 'speculators' are now betting big time that the US government will further devalue their currency as a way to bail out bankers, mortgage holders and the explosive government debt load and so, naturally, they are 'hedging' themselves by buying things that will go up in price . . . like oil, gold, silver, copper, wheat, etc.
The Opec president, Chakib Khelil, said in March that US economic mismanagement was to blame for the high oil price.
“The US slowdown and lower interest rates have lowered the value of the dollar and encouraged speculative flows into oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. What’s happening in the oil market is due to the mismanagement of the US economy, which is affecting the rest of the world,”
Posted at April 28, 2008 8:08 AM in response to Oil Price Speculation???
-
Actually, this is not a giant leap to the left. George Will's position that the Fed should not act as a welfare policy for bankers is consistent with conservative policies.
It is the bankers themselves who have taken a giant leap to the left in demanding the Fed and government bail them out.
Posted at April 21, 2008 11:59 AM in response to George Will Moves to the Left of the Democrats
