Here is a report from CNN regarding this issue and please take in mind that in February when the Presumptive Nominee became McCain. Obama was ahead of McCain by 12 points. It is only since the muddle with Clinton that his numbers dropped, once everything settles down his numbers will go up again to where they originaly where..a year out.

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- It's one year until Election Day 2008. Do the current polls tell us anything a year before the election? Yes, they tell us something, but you have to be careful.

Al Gore was the last front-runner one year out to win the Democratic nomination.

The polls tell us Sen. Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination and Rudy Giuliani's the Republican front-runner. So is it all over, before it even begins?

Be careful with a poll, says New Hampshire Institute of Politics Director Paul Manuel. "It's not a predictor. It's a tool. It's a useful way to understand what's happening at that moment and nothing more."

Let's look at the record of polls taken a year before the election.

Polls predicting the Democratic nominees have mostly been wrong. Surveys taken in November 1971 predicted the Democrats would nominate Edward Kennedy or Edmund Muskie. In 1972, the Democrats nominated George McGovern.

In November 1975, the polls predicted Kennedy again. The next year, the Democrats nominated Jimmy Carter.

In early November 1979, the polls predicted Kennedy would defeat Carter for the Democratic nomination. He didn't.

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In 1987, Jesse Jackson was the Democratic front-runner. In 1988, Michael Dukakis was the Democratic nominee.

Mario Cuomo led the Democratic field in November 1991. In 1992, the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton.

Howard Dean was well on his way to getting the Democratic nomination in November 2003, until John Kerry took it away from him.

Only twice have polls the year before correctly predicted the Democratic nominee. Walter Mondale in 1983 and Al Gore in 1999. Both won the nomination the following year. And both were current or former vice presidents.

On the Republican side, the polls have almost always been right the year before. They predicted Ronald Reagan's nomination in 1980, George H.W. Bush's nomination in 1988, Bob Dole's in 1996 and George W. Bush's in 2000.

Republican polls a year out got it wrong only once, in 1976. The polls in 1975 predicted Reagan. The next year Republicans nominated incumbent President Gerald Ford.

In the past, the Republican nominating process has usually been an orderly succession. Predictable. The Democrats have had a free-for-all. Unpredictable.

"Historically, the Democrats have been an alliance of many different groups and the Republicans are a more narrow band," says Manuel.

If that's still true, the message to Republicans is, it's Rudy Giuliani. And to Democrats, don't bet on Hillary Clinton.

But is it still true? Don't bet on it.

This time, the Democratic front-runner has a bigger lead. And the Democrats say they're more satisfied with their choices. So this time, the Democrats look like they may have an orderly succession. And the Republicans may have a free-for-all. A topsy-turvy year.

When it comes to predicting the general election winner, the record of the polls a year out is actually pretty good.

A year before the election, polls predicted Reagan would defeat Mondale in 1984, Bush would defeat Dukakis in 1988, Clinton would beat Dole in 1996, Bush would defeat Gore -- by 16 points! -- in 2000 and Bush would beat Kerry in 2004.

The year-before polls got it wrong twice. In 1979, the polls predicted Carter would beat Reagan. And in 1991, they predicted the first President Bush would defeat Bill Clinton.

In both cases, voters a year out expected the president to get re-elected

Posted at May 9, 2008 2:07 PM in response to The North-Carolina win is a day of doom for Obama

GOV. KATHLEEN SEBELIUS

She is a Moderate, shares Obama's ethics and has a history of working across the Party lines. She will compliment the ticket and she has been Campaigning for Obama hard all over the Country. She would make an excellent VP as she will calm the Hillbots and hopefully get the female vote.

Posted at May 7, 2008 6:39 PM in response to So how does Obama graciously NOT name HRC VP?

No.. No.. No.. Not Hillary Clinton, she will take the VP and her and Bill will plot to have him killed within the first year. Hillary is everything Obama is not and this will be a drag on the ticket come November. Hillary has said and done some nasty things during this Primary Campaign, Blacks are not real voters, Obliterate Iran, Dismantle OPEC, She and McCain have passed the commander in Chief test and Obama has not and last but not least, Obama is an "Elitist". I say No.. No... No.. No to Hillary, No to the hate, No to the Win at All costs and No to the evil evil woman.

Any woman but Hillary...

Posted at May 7, 2008 5:54 PM in response to Obama Doubles Down

I have always found that Lanny Davis is the most divisive person when he is on CNN or any other cable News show. He has written three Op Ed pieces spewing his trash about Obama, like he personally has a fight with Obama. I hate listening to his rants about Hillary and how she is better then Obama and that Obama cannot get the so called Blue Collar Whites (Republicans). I was so proud of Donna last night, because I felt like she was speaking for me and all Obama supporters. We are tired of the divisiveness of the Clintons and their supporters and we are not going to take it any more. You can support your candidate with out disparaging the character of the other candidate in your own party for Pete’s sake.

Lanny Davis is the most hateful of the Clinton supporters and I was so glad that the others on the panel have also had enough. David Gergen was great as always, reasonable and very constructive in his criticism of the Clinton supporters.

Posted at May 7, 2008 2:45 PM in response to Donna Brazille takes on Paul Begala on CNN

This is such a wonderful post on the activities on the ground in NC. NCSteve, thank-you for taking the time to detail your experiences and give hope to the rest of us who are in cyber space. You are right, when you are online reading the blogs or watching cable news we tend to think that there is very little hope left and that people have lost focus. The regular person still knows what is at stake in this election and they will make the right choice and maybe we need to "chill" and remember that.

Thanks for the story on the personal moment with the AA woman at the polling place, it's good to see that we are starting to see each other in a better (real) light.

Posted at May 4, 2008 1:20 AM in response to I Maybe Think We're Going to Be Okay

"Present" get off this Obama hate and take your racism back to Aussie or England where ever you are from. America has it's own race problems but it is nothing.. I repeat NOTHING compared to you Australians and English. America has made more progress in our race relations then England has made in over 1000 years and Australia in over 500 years. You should go and repent and start treating Aboriginals (your grandfather slaughtered) as humans before you come in and deal with our country.

I lived among you for a while so I know what you are capable of...You gave your self away when referred to welfare as the "dole".

Posted at May 2, 2008 1:15 PM in response to Clinton campaign paid Rev. Wright?

From the DVDs, it seems Wrights sermons are from his evening or Weekday sermons. This is not when the majority of the people go to church. Usually the evening and weekday services are really for the more aggressive and hard core members and the Sunday morning sermons are for the average person.

Just my two cents

Posted at May 1, 2008 6:29 PM in response to Chicago Voter: Talks to Rush about Obama

Obama does not need a land slide in NC so if he wins by 10%..it's good enough. Hillary won PA by ten and that was a State made in her mold...so there.

Posted at May 1, 2008 6:15 PM in response to Poll: Obama Ahead By Seven Points In North Carolina

Otto F, you can quote as many republicans as you want, it still wont make it so. Give up and go to sleep, some one will wake you on President Obama's inaguration.

Posted at April 30, 2008 3:43 PM in response to Fox Poll: Hillary Doing Better Than Obama Against McCain With Independents

Lanny Davis is a hack and as BAD as Hillary, they belong together. I see him night after night on Larry King talking hate and stupidity all in support of Hillary. I love that Larry King finally had Flavio on there the last two nights to take Lanny Davis down.

Posted at April 30, 2008 2:11 PM in response to Gary Cohen, Connie Manes, Reverend Wright, Lanny Davis