David Sirota is definitely onto something. But I think there is a more basic point: what percentage of the white majority population is "non-racist", that is, broadly tolerant? Various surveys suggest the percentage is anywhere from 20% to 40% of the population. Obama's genius is that he recognizes that the most important minority is not African-Americans, not Asians, not Latinos but rather non-racist whites. He is consistently getting more votes and caucus-goers from non-racist whites. This is true whether Iowa or Mississippi. Recast this way, it could be said that Barack Obama will become the first "minority US President". Ironically, the minority will have been non-racist, tolerant voters from among the majority white eligible population.

Posted at April 3, 2008 9:37 AM in response to Obama & The Dynamic Whose Name Must Not Be Spoken

Clinton is in a rush to have "one more chance" in FL and MI. Since most States' caucuses and primaries are paid for by the citizens or party members in those states, why not restrict contributions to any re-vote in FL or MI. That is, only permit residents of either State to contribute to the cost of a re-vote. And, set some reasonable limit on contributions, say, $100 per individual or $200 per household. The alternative is to have the $10-mn "Lockheed Martin Primary", putting an eventual winner in the highly awkward position of owing his/her Presidency to one or a few enterprises. Phrased this way, I think Obama can make a clear case for either much cheaper caucuses or primaries that won't be scheduled until after PA, NC results are known. Then, fund them from modest contributors in-State.

Posted at March 13, 2008 11:00 PM in response to Convention Math: Remember the UADs!