Believe me, I'm not thinking of airlines as just a means of vacation. I'm only pointing out one of many, many recent trends in consumer behavior. As CarolBG points out and at my company as well, people aren't flying as much right now.

I loved traveling by train in Europe. American culture and companies drove the country away from rail in the 50s; at this point, I agree that high speed passenger rail makes sense. That 1,000 mile flight takes two hours, but it's around 5-6 with the security, delays, and car time between the airport and destination.

You've said before in your posts that we will be experiencing lifestyle changes you fear will be painful. I absolutely agree with the former, but question the latter.

I think there will be a resurgence in local farming; people will walk more where it is practical; there will be movement away from colder and muggier climates; movement away from places where things don't grow (Arizona) and we'll travel less. We won't be eating blueberries from New Zealand in December as much.

The experience of "pain" and "pleasure" are really personal - I, for one, enjoy home grown local produce and don't like food from a can. I like to walk. And both are good for my health. Other people hate vegetables, like driving and flying, etc. They'll have a different onion than I will in the future, and different tears.

Posted at June 19, 2008 10:14 AM in response to Railroading An Issue

"So how to do business? How to travel in a country the size of the US?"

Take a look at recent stock prices of railway companies - BNSF traded at $103 today and Norfolk Southern is at $64. We still have the rail architecture to ship products by rail, and if gas continues to climb, there can be a rapid shift back. Rail car manufacturers are also doing well. I'm less than a mile from railroad tracks, and it's not prime real estate. Wouldn't cost too much to put a station there - the infrastructure, especially out west, is already there in many, many places. But that's not all.

DF didn't take his trip (yet) and many people aren't either - the word "staycation" is new to the mass lexicon this season. People have woken up fast, and are already changing their behavior. CarolBG, myself, most of my officemates, and many others who can are negotiating increasing telecommuting abilities.

Societies change when millions of people change their behavior. Just watch what happens this year. Fast.

Posted at June 18, 2008 10:37 PM in response to Railroading An Issue

"Public policies cannot help people who don't help themselves."
That is, and always will be true. WRoss hit two big keys here - lifestyle and exercise.

One of the things we are not doing now is educating the public about nutrition and exercise. In my high school, there were no required health classes. The last one was in 7th grade. That was in the early 80's; now there are even fewer. We recently had children, and asked several of our physicians if they were required to take nutrition classes. The answer: no. Contrast that to other countries such as Japan or France, and what will you find?

So if we don't require this kind of education, how will we learn nutrition? Currently, it would appear this comes from food and drug companies. Is it working?

Posted at June 17, 2008 10:14 AM in response to Why Tim Russert's death is important

I'm not particularly fed up with TPM for covering a story that has, such as with Couric's comment, seen MSM airplay. This is a site concerned primarily with politics and all of its nooks and crankies.

Unlike the MSM, even if it wasn't Clearthinker first, someone here would have found the Pew/Harvard study, and pointed out the findings: the narratives supplied by the campaigns were covered fairly, based on a preponderance of the data. That shows the strength of the TPM community - which is more than a single article. It's worth it to debunk the sexism story here alone.

Then, it should die quickly as people realize the Pew study and discussion is interesting, but it's only a part of the story. The largest pool of data is the results of the primaries themselves. It isn't just what people hear, it's what we all believe, and how we act. And Democrats as well as cross over voters have chosen Obama over Clinton.

And now, for those of you who think this is a distraction, remember it isn't just electing a President that accomplishes change, though the president alone will likely determine the direction of the Supreme Court for the next 2-3 decades, and whether or not the laws of this country are actually enforced - directly, or indirectly (such as downsizing regulatory agencies) like the Bush administration.

It is also congress, and every representative is up for election, as well as about a third of the senate. These are the people who decide where we spend our money, with the President as the final gate. So if you want universal healthcare, education, reduction on fossil fuels, etc. don't just focus on the Presidency - look at your own state. TPM is one of the rare sites that has actually commented on key senate and house races.

Posted at June 16, 2008 11:44 PM in response to Are you as fed up with TPM as I?

Does anyone have any data about Russian production capability or their field sizes? I seem to remember a foreign affairs article that discussed that Russia may be the next dominant market player as the Saudi production peaks.

Posted at June 11, 2008 10:25 AM in response to Taking a Look at the Oil Bubble

What I like here is data that shows whether or not the current steep climb in oil prices is a bubble or not. My gut says something is wrong here, but that could just be the times or the tomato in my salad today.

Here’s what we have so far:
- rise from $70/barrel to $140 in less than a year in oil prices

Bubble:
- no major changes in instability in major oil producing nations (exceptions in Africa)
- gas prices, which normally appear to track oil prices, have diverged from oil prices this year (DF)
- energy markets can be manipulated (Enron, and BP case cited by Bev D;
- 16:1 leverage in oil commodities trading (Hamsun) which allows more speculative volume

Not a bubble:
- gas prices should diverge from oil prices as the number of diesel drivers in Europe and Asia is rising faster than gas drivers, which helps hold down gas prices (Donal)
- the number of cars in China has climbed from 36 million in 2003 to 120 million in 2008 (this is evidence of a demand curve shift) SPQR
- World petroleum consumption charts/Bartlett production piece in Physics Today (clearthinker) – the consumption chart doesn’t show 2006-2008, but one can certainly guess the trend. Again, a shift in the demand curve here
- Evidence that peak oil has been reached

If I were a trader and looking at the trends in “not a bubble” I’d be leveraging up as well. Which is why I think there is truth to all of this.

So can 300 million of us make enough little changes now to avoid a repeat of the early 70s?

Hope so.
Time to do so.

Posted at June 10, 2008 9:12 PM in response to Taking a Look at the Oil Bubble

DF - thanks for posting! That is some pretty solid evidence of a bubble, in my view, though I also agree with some of the other readers comments about long-term trends. If you're a speculator, it's those trends and expectations that drive trading.

Posted at June 10, 2008 10:29 AM in response to Taking a Look at the Oil Bubble

RE, that's my whole flight to safety case. And what's next when the oil bubble pops? (Still not 100% convinced it's a bubble as there have been some compelling arguments above).

Next is the treasuries - which soar when the Fed has to act to contain inflation. As in the late 70s/early 80s.

Sound like history repeating itself?

Posted at June 9, 2008 6:57 PM in response to Is there an oil price bubble forming?

Thank you for commenting, Arianna - I enjoy your blog and Huffpo as well.

My answer is both parties use fear and emotion when pointing the finger at each other. If you have any doubt, drop the amygdala off in the freezer and review the abortion issue on both sides.

The difference here is the times. Gas is over $4 per gallon. Companies are starting the mass layoffs again. It costs more to buy food. Many of our friends and loved ones don't have health care coverage or are excluded now that they really need it. And some of our brothers and sisters are serving overseas in a war that's cost us how much?

Right now, I think people are far less concerned with Middle Eastern middle names, flag pins, preachers, or madrassas. Which, as John Stewart so adroitly pointed out, means "school" in Arabic.

We're busy facing some real fears, and need leadership with the gravitas to truly change things. It remains to be seen what luggage will come with us into the voting booth in the fall, but right now it isn't pledge pins on our uniforms. You can bet your madrassa on it.

Posted at June 9, 2008 6:52 PM in response to Fear and Politics

Clearthinker - we definitely need to rethink our infrastructure; oil and fertilizers are also deeply rooted in the "modern" agriculture system as well.

People are changing their behavior, and when 300 million of us do it at the same time, we have a tremendous effect. The good news is millions of people are asking the question - how can I reduce my use of gas? There are a variety of answers depending on the situation, but what I've found the data supports so far is people are driving less.

That's why I'm not so worried. Gore's main point is that no single solution gets us there for climate change. Codegen is right on that there's no replacement yet, but now the fire under our fannies has collectively been lit.

Donal - I wonder if you're correct as well and we'll see a dip before the election. Might be worth it to check gas and oil prices in September/October/November 02,04, and 06...

Posted at June 9, 2008 6:20 PM in response to Is there an oil price bubble forming?