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Should We Bury Macroeconomists at Ground Zero?

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That is the question that millions are no doubt asking after the publication of a new study from the Boston Fed. The study examines the arguments from those warning about the housing bubble, as well as the deniers and the agnostics. It concludes by exonerating the economics profession for failing to see the biggest economic catastrophe in 80 years:

"the state-of-the-art tools of economic science were not capable of predicting with any degree of certainty the collapse of U.S. house prices that started in 2006."


I'm sorry, but this one is really painful. It's bad enough that these highly paid professionals could not see this disaster coming beforehand, but it turns out that even after the Titanic hit the iceberg they still couldn't see a problem in the ship's design.

btw, Yves Smith's longer discussion of the Fed report at Naked Capitalism is definitely worth reading.

The highlight of the story from the deniers and agnostics is that if we construct a model that has house prices depending heavily on the interest rate, then the prices of the period 2002-2006 don't appear so out of line. This is especially true if we slip in as part of the equation an expectation that house prices will rise in the future by more than the rate of inflation.

Serious economists cannot take this sort of story seriously. If there is an expectation that house prices will rise more rapidly than inflation, then we are saying that the expectations of rising house prices will justify rising house prices. Can we get a big "duh" from the masses who lack advanced training in economics?

Of course this is the bubble story. If people expect house prices to rise, and they do in fact rise, then we get a higher price to rent ratio. How do we justify the higher price to rent ratio in the next period? We have to expect house prices to rise even more. This works fine, until house prices no longer rise and then our expectations go the other way - and then house prices collapse. This is not a model that supports the case against the bubble. It is a model of a bubble market.

Similarly, the argument that low interest rates justified sky-high house prices also does not explain away the bubble, as I pointed out back in 2002. Historically, house prices had not been very responsive to interest rates, but this could have changed in recent years due to changes in housing finance or other factors.

However, this story should have provided limited comfort to the housing bulls in 2002-2004, since no one expected interest rates to remain so low. In other words, if the high house prices of these bubble years was explained by extraordinarily low interest rates, then the housing bulls should have expected house prices to plummet - just like the bears - once interest rates returned to more normal levels.

Finally, the Boston Fed folks are still trying to hold up one of the silliest stories of the bubble days as a plausible explanation for soaring housing prices. The New York Fed put out a study in 2004 arguing that there actually was no run-up in house prices. This Fed paper claimed that the run-up in prices was an illusion created by a faulty index. The problem was that we were tracking repeat sales of the same homes. However, they claimed that homes were being improved between sales - homeowners were putting in central air-conditioning or building additions - thereby raising the value of their homes. According to the NY Fed paper, these improvements explained the increase in the house price index, not an actual increase in quality adjusted house prices.

This one was easy to dismiss at the time. It was only necessary to look at the data for spending on home repairs and improvements. This information was available in a data series actually cited in the paper. If the improvement story was true, there would have been a sharp increase in the money spent on repairs and renovations relative to the value of the housing stock.

In fact, the data showed the opposite. In the bubble years, homeowners were actually spending slightly less on improvements, relative to the value of their homes, than had been the case in prior decades. However, this detail - which completely destroyed the argument - was not sufficient to keep the Fed from publishing the paper in 2004. Nor was it sufficient to undermine the argument in the eyes of the Boston Fed team in 2010.

It was easy for honest economists to recognize a housing bubble in 2002-2006. A huge break with a hundred year long trend in the largest market in the world is a hard event to miss, even if the vast majority of economists missed it.

If economists can't recognize an $8 trillion housing bubble - even in retrospect--what can they do? That is, except tell us that we need to cut Social Security?


20 Comments

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By your logic, we should immediately fire all State Department personnel the day a war breaks out, no doctor should remain licensed to practice during an epidemic, and policemen should lose there jobs if someone commits a crime.

Economists provide advice to policymakers; except for some department heads in universities, practicing economists don’t actually MAKE policy.

We’re advisors, and if no one listens, that’s worthy of note.

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Yes, some of us did predict disaster, but when the stock market is roaring, who cares?


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Who cares? Are you serious, or is this a joke question? Ok, I'll bite: I cared then and I care now.

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Economists overstate their importance soaking up far more than their fair share of academic appointments. Other economists pretend to provide informed advice, while really just mouthing whatever propaganda their principals want. A pox on (almost) all of them.

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For many years now the only economists who have been given appointments and advancement are those who bought into supply side, trickle down economics.

When people borrowed more than they could afford to pay, these economists said: "Give the banks more money so they can increase the supply of loans."

When people stopped buying cars, these economists said: "Give the car companies more money so they can increase the supply of cars.

Neither of these approaches worked. Simply because they did not address the real problem - that there was plenty of supply, just no demand.

Henry Ford had it right. When asked why he was paying his workers the unheard of amount of $5.00 per hour, he responded: "So they can purchase the cars they are making."

Providing the major bulk of the "stimulus" to the supply side of the supply/demand equation missed providing any real resolution to the actual problem. What did help was supplying individuals, the demand side, with their stimulus even though that was a drop in the bucket compared to the amount that was provided to the banks and auto companies, the supply side.

Think - if the stimulus would have been directed toward the demand side (the people) to the tune of the $2 Trillion which has been pumped into the banks and auto companies, each American could have received almost $7,000, could have paid off some or all of their debts, and would have started buying again - reducing supplies resulting in increased demand for more supplies.

The biggest difference would have been: The banks would still have ended up with the money, what they wouldn't have is the indebtedness.

Now, they have both the money and the indebtedness.
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You wildly exaggerate Baker's point. He didn't rant about public servants in general. Economists with the most heft got the ears of top officials, and these economists propped up a bubble they had every reason to believe would burst. Worthless advice is devastating. And besides, if diplomats and first responders do a lousy job across the board, what good are they?

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"the state-of-the-art tools of economic science were not capable of predicting with any degree of certainty the collapse of U.S. house prices that started in 2006."

Strikes me that the "start of the art tools" are these particular macroeconomists themselves. Whose tools? I'll leave that for another to argue.

Strikes me, too, that the tools the tools use are designed to look like tools and to sound like tools--for the benefit of those who observe the practitioner of this(black?)art from the sidelines. They look like tools because they have a lot of numbers and symbols in them, and they produce pretty graphs. They sound like tools by being named in polysyllables.

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Is this the origin of the Firesign Theater line "Oh, Nick, you're such a tool!"?

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Can you really expect a different outcome when it is the deniers and agnostics doing the report? The problem isn't the economists. The problem is the system.

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You want a bigger DUH
Quit exporting jobs overseas.

It appears the first priority of the Federal Reserve; is to protect the moneychangers,

The moneychangers want a return on they’re investments; but it’s dangerous if the homebuyers want a return on they’re investments?

"In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy. The Act was amended in 1977 to include the following two goals:
· Promote maximum sustainable output and employment
· Stable prices
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/monetary-policy.asp

How can the Fed promote maximum employment, all the while, companies expand they’re output outside the country; as long as the moneychangers benefit, NO PROBLEM?

Well Houston we got a problem.

People are losing they’re jobs and they’re homes.

The Federal Reserve has failed the working class; it appears the banker class; the moneychangers, are doing just fine.
As long as the money-changers are one step ahead of inflation, to heck with everyone else?

The majority of homebuyers factored in interest rates and the purchase price and concluded they could afford the house.
What the homeowners didn’t factor in, is a government that allowed the exporting of jobs overseas to the detriment of the working class.

One minute the Fed eager to raise interest rates because of the fears of inflation, and the next they fear deflation.

What we have is a Fed steering a course without a rudder.
Lacking a rudder of moral capacity.

A Federal Reserve, having more clout than individuals shouting about the reckless course we were on. A Federal Reserve that should have spoken up more forcefully about the damaging affects of financing two wars, and tax policies that benefited companies to expand overseas.

Proving they were only heartless servants of greed.

As long as the war profiteers and the banker class made money?

If the banker class wants to make more money and beat inflation, never fear, the friends of the Federal Reserve will just raise interest rates

People losing they’re homes and jobs
Mortgaged backed assets be damned

"If the American people ever allow private banks
to control the issue of their money,
first by inflation and then by deflation,
the banks and corporations that will
grow up around them (around the banks),
will deprive the people of their property
until their children will wake up homeless
on the continent their fathers conquered."
Thomas Jefferson Quote

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We should have known there was trouble when the media in their business reports began reporting decreasing "labor costs" as a good thing, with identifying that as a euphemism for falling wages.

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without- make that without.

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I don't trust those fancy-pants global warming scientists either. Go with your gut feelings.

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Ohio Guy:

How much pollution do you think the earth's atmosphere can take without resulting in some type of change?

Although the earth's atmosphere is very large as compared to your lungs, it is finite and is small compared to the amount of matter in the universe.

It is an accepted fact that pumping cigarette smoke (a pollutant) through your lungs increases your proclivity toward getting lung cancer.

So, how much pollution can we pump into our earth's atmosphere before it starts to change?
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Steven Hill says he's 'shorting economists' since they don't know what to measure, and can't foretell massive bubbles:

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/shorting_exonomists_the_experts_keep_getting_it_wrong_20100819/

(He leaves Dean Baker unscathed; whew!)

Based on such a miserable track record, I’m shorting economists and financial experts of all stripes. Most of them are wrong more than they are right. But that doesn’t prevent them from pontificating like an order of self-righteous priests. Considering how much damage they have caused, how many economic experts have lost their jobs or been otherwise defrocked? Indeed, many of the same people who caused the disaster—Fed chief Ben Bernanke, Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, the latter two being Clinton treasury secretaries who got deregulation done, then split for Harvard and Citigroup, respectively—are still calling the shots. Summers, of course, is President Obama’s top economic adviser. Their economic priesthood protects its own, no matter how offending they have been, relocating them to another university or think tank, another government job or talking-head show.


So when the authorities say “a recovery is under way” or “stimulus rather than deficit reduction” or “deficit reduction instead of stimulus,” remember: These are the same experts who are unsure of how to measure, who too often substitute ideology and partisanship for broken theory, and usually have been flat wrong in their assessments. It is critically important that we find better measuring sticks and employ saner values for assessing what a successful economy looks like. Until then, we are flying in uncharted territory, without compass or radar, surrounded by fog. Heaven help us.

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Expertise is gained by studying the past. Expert projections are made by extrapolating past trends into the future. As long as the future is exactly like the past, everything is fine. Unfortunately, the future often isn't an extrapolation of the past, and that's where experts fail. It's not unique to economics. It's true in every field.

Oh, yeah, and when the predictions are wrong, there's always someone around to say they knew it all along.

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State-of-the-art tools of economic nescience is more accurate. The problem is only partly with particular "economists" and their desire to be lapdogs. Much more it is with the "economics" they purvey: A combination of mathematics they don't really understand using sufficiently many fudge factors to serve as window dressing, absurd assumptions having nothing to do with the real world and above all, contempt for real empirical and theoretical work, that tries to respect advanced theories like basic accounting and arithmetic. E.g. the DSGE models recently used by central banks assumed that private borrowers could not go broke, while governments could. Why should one be surprised at the garbage-out, when it is the result of 30+ years of garbage-in pseudomathematical dark age macroeconomics?

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I though we should bury all economists but that would pollute the land. Then I though of dumping them all in the ocean but that would pollute the oceans. The I thought of burning them all at the stake but that would increase climate change.

How about using them all as volcano virgins ? Just dump them all into some active volcano like Turrialba in Costa Rica.

C

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Dean Baker wrote his signature "bubble" paper in August 2002. He was wrong; there wasn't a house price bubble, then.

Three years later everyone (even a conventional dope like Brad DeLong) knew there was a bubble, but then, the issue was what to do about it. Janet Yellen advised (suggested?) "tighter supervision or changes in financial regulation" by which I assume she meant requiring larger down payments and limiting the leverage the banks and the GSEs were employing to keep the bubble inflating.

Greenspan didn't take her advice. Banks were allowed to gear their portfolios at 30:1; homeowners were given mortgages at 105% of the purchase price; and there was rampant fraud throughout the "originate-to-securitize" game played by Wall Street.

It wasn't the bubble that did us in; it was the leverage the players were permitted to use.

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Please no burying:) If you're in the UK, try the reverse phone number search

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